Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
18.2%+7.9
n=11 · A/E 3.57 · £1 +52.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
50%+39.7
n=4 · A/E 18.36 · £1 +59.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
11.1%+0.8
n=27 · A/E 1.94 · £1 +87.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 55.6% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft1100%−11.00
Good9111.1%+42.00
Soft6116.7%+45.00
Good to Firm3133.3%+9.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Stratford700%−7.00
Newton Abbot4125%+8.00
Cheltenham3133.3%+48.00
Exeter300%−3.00
Aintree300%−3.00
Warwick200%−2.00
Leicester2150%+49.00
Towcester100%−1.00
Wincanton100%−1.00
Fontwell100%−1.00
Ludlow100%−1.00
Newbury100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 61516.7%−3.00
Class 58112.5%+43.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Class 32150%+49.00
Class 4200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav100%0.00−1.00
4th–6th fav14214.3%2.46+49.00
7th+ in betting1218.3%3.56+39.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m14214.3%+49.00
2m1f – 2m4f900%−9.00
1m5f – 2m3133.3%+48.00
Over 3m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008400%−4.00
2009100%−1.00
2011100%−1.00
201211100%+11.00
20136116.7%+45.00
2014800%−8.00
2015300%−3.00
2016100%−1.00
2021100%−1.00
20263133.3%+48.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps200%−2.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners900%−9.00
8-10 runners9111.1%+3.00
14-16 runners6116.7%+45.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners11100%+50.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 5 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 5 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 1 had its first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Enqarde (FR) — Cottesmore Open Hunters' Chase Leicester · Feb 2026 · Class 3
£7,244
Himalayan Express (GB) — Cheltenham Racecourse Conference And Events Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · May 2013 · Class 5
£2,184
Himalayan Express (GB) — Totnes And Bridgetown Races Company Novices' Hunters' Chase Newton Abbot · May 2012 · Class 6
Progeny have won 8.9% of 561 runs since 2008 (56 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 5.9% from 118.
Moscow Society (USA)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,521 runs since 2008 (255 horses).
Kayf Tara (GB)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,762 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Kapgarde (FR)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 12.4% of 6,638 runs since 2008 (725 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 34 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Mrs David Plunkett's 34 archived runners, from 16 April 2006 to 9 April 2026, newest first — 3 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mrs David Plunkett's strike rate?
Mrs David Plunkett has won 3 of 29 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 runners, so read the count before the percentage.
Mrs David Plunkett·SR 10.3%·A/E 1.92
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