Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.7%+0.3
n=13 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −5.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.4
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−7.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 5.1% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase2414.2%−16.00
NH Flat3133.3%+9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good16212.5%+4.00
Good to Firm400%−4.00
Soft400%−4.00
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cheltenham6116.7%+2.00
Stratford5120%+7.00
Folkestone500%−5.00
Fontwell400%−4.00
Aintree400%−4.00
Huntingdon200%−2.00
Lingfield100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6900%−9.00
Class 48225%+12.00
Class 2500%−5.00
Class 5300%−3.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav500%0.00−5.00
4th–6th fav8225%3.38+12.00
7th+ in betting1100%0.00−11.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m1200%−12.00
Over 3m1119.1%−3.00
2m1f – 2m4f300%−3.00
1m5f – 2m11100%+11.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008200%−2.00
2009100%−1.00
2011100%−1.00
2012300%−3.00
2013200%−2.00
2015200%−2.00
2016300%−3.00
2017200%−2.00
20183133.3%+5.00
2019200%−2.00
2021100%−1.00
20232150%+10.00
2024200%−2.00
2025100%−1.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners800%−8.00
5-7 runners7114.3%+5.00
11-13 runners500%−5.00
14-16 runners5120%+3.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 11 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 11 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 7 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Excitable Island (IRE) — Cheltenham Club Open Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · May 2018 · Class 4
£3,897
Penniless (IRE) — Visit Irish Stores Sales With ITM Champion 'Point-To-Point' Bumper Standard NH Flat Race (Amateur Jockeys) (GBB Race) Stratford · Jun 2023 · Class 4
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,588 runs since 2019 (172 horses).
Luso (GB)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 6.7% of 3,516 runs since 2008 (389 horses).
Beneficial (GB)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Zaffaran (USA)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,087 runs since 2008 (140 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 209. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4% from 174. Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 5.2% from 155.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 28 archived runs · newest first
Every one of N W Padfield's 28 archived runners, from 24 May 2006 to 2 May 2025, newest first — 2 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is N W Padfield's strike rate?
N W Padfield has won 2 of 27 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 runners, so read the count before the percentage.
N W Padfield·SR 7.4%·A/E 0.90
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