Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.15). With a claiming rider up the record reads 7% (31 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 140 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceRory Cleary: 4.7% from 86Claiming riders: 6.5%
The read
Rory Cleary rides 61% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.7%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well on Soft going (10%, n=40) and over 1m – 1m1f (9.7%, n=31). The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 0% over 30 runners, 5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Guinness & Oysters EBF Fillies Handicap at Galway (Jul 2008, £26,040). The stable star of the record: Miranda's Girl (IRE) — 6 wins from 82 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.0
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.0
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
18.2%+13.2
n=11 · A/E 9.91 · £1 +32.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −0.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.5%+1.5
n=31 · A/E 2.23 · £1 +12.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
100%+95.0
n=1 · A/E 4.19 · £1 +2.75
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Soft going10% vs 5% · n=40
Over 6f – 7f0% vs 5% · n=30
Over 1m – 1m1f9.7% vs 5% · n=31
Over 1m2f – 1m4f2.2% vs 5% · n=46
Off a 15-30-day break2.4% vs 5% · n=42
On Good going2.9% vs 5% · n=34
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat11754.3%−31.25
Hurdle1715.9%−8.00
NH Flat5120%−1.25
Chase100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft40410%+14.25
Good3412.9%−27.50
Standard (AW)2600%−26.00
Heavy2129.5%+16.75
Good to Soft1500%−15.00
Good to Firm400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)2600%−26.00
Roscommon1400%−14.00
Gowran Park1317.7%−9.75
Naas10110%+11.00
Galway900%−9.00
Fairyhouse7114.3%+2.00
Curragh6116.7%+0.50
Limerick600%−6.00
Navan6233.3%+31.75
Ballinrobe500%−5.00
Bellewstown5120%+16.00
Killarney500%−5.00
Tipperary400%−4.00
Sligo400%−4.00
Punchestown400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 111100%+2.75
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6233.3%1.60+3.75
2nd–3rd fav13215.4%1.21−0.25
4th–6th fav1700%0.00−17.00
7th+ in betting10432.9%1.45−28.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f4612.2%−25.00
1m – 1m1f3139.7%−0.25
6f – 7f3000%−30.00
1m5f – 2m21314.3%+25.75
2m1f – 2m4f600%−6.00
2m5f – 3m300%−3.00
Under 6f200%−2.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224812.1%−27.00
20232528%−15.25
20242100%−21.00
202529413.8%+38.75
20261700%−17.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9744.1%−45.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners6400%−64.00
11-13 runners40410%+14.25
17+ runners1915.3%−12.50
8-10 runners1516.7%+19.00
2-4 runners11100%+2.75
5-7 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 25 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J S Bolger (2); 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0110001109061113
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
53
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£675k
Prize money
2014
Best season · 8 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,538 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.
Progeny have won 8.9% of 4,261 runs since 2008 (320 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.3% from 570. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 363.
Progeny have won 11.7% of 669 runs since 2008 (107 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.8% from 190. Weakest on Soft going: 8.3% from 132. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.7% from 207.
Exceed and Excel (AUS)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,025 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
Sintarajan (IRE)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8.8% of 114 runs since 2008 (9 horses).
Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,320 runs since 2008 (596 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,426 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,426 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 February 2005 to 10 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Thomas Cleary's strike rate?
Thomas Cleary has won 7 of 140 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Thomas Cleary?
Rory Cleary, with 86 runners since 2022 — 61% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4.7%).
Is Thomas Cleary in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Thomas Cleary's Fair A/E?
1.15, from 140 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Thomas Cleary·SR 5%·A/E 1.15
KTB
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