Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 13.3%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
13.3%+2.2
n=30 · A/E 1.94 · £1 +17.10
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−11.1
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
5%−6.1
n=20 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −16.10
First-time headgear · true-first definition
9.1%−2.0
n=11 · A/E 1.50 · £1 +3.60
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
75%
n=4 · A/E 3.94 · £1 +8.55
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−11.1
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking11.7% vs 11.1% · n=60 · A/E 1.83
In Flat races11.1% vs 11.1% · n=90 · A/E 1.74
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft2428.3%−7.40
Standard (AW)2200%−22.00
Good18316.7%+8.85
Soft17317.6%+0.80
Heavy9222.2%+17.30
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)1800%−18.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)17423.5%+12.80
Toulouse (FR)11327.3%+9.75
Longchamp (FR)10110%+0.40
Deauville (FR)9111.1%+5.60
La Teste De Buch (FR)7114.3%+5.00
Mont-De-Marsan (FR)700%−7.00
Dax (FR)700%−7.00
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)100%−1.00
Clairefontaine (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 47228.6%+13.50
Class 1500%−5.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5360%3.45+7.55
2nd–3rd fav9111.1%0.80−4.40
4th–6th fav21419%2.41+18.90
7th+ in betting5523.6%1.03−24.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f2827.1%−15.75
1m – 1m1f2600%−26.00
1m5f – 2m20840%+55.30
6f – 7f1500%−15.00
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20229111.1%+5.60
20233133.3%+1.60
202422418.2%+13.60
2025900%−9.00
20264748.5%−14.25
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps50510%+0.20
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4137.3%−9.30
11-13 runners2328.7%+0.10
8-10 runners20525%+12.75
17+ runners300%−3.00
5-7 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 27 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Roberto Avial Sanchez (3); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard, most often for Roberto Avial Sanchez (4); 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0·11000815213300
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Falco Delavilliere (FR) — Prix le Roi Soleil (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Jul 2018
£24,336
Totxo (IRE) — Prix Du Rey (Handicap) (3yo+) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Oct 2012
£23,500
Lucio Vero (GB) — Prix Rieussec (Handicap) (3yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2024
Progeny have won 12.3% of 1,670 runs since 2008 (219 horses). Strongest on Good going: 16.6% from 392. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.9% from 278.
Pivotal (GB)41.7% · 5–12
Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,787 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,141 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 254. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 144.
Progeny have won 13.2% of 952 runs since 2008 (155 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 16.9% from 313. Weakest on Soft going: 9.9% from 213. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 16.3% from 416. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.3% from 178.
Progeny have won 15.3% of 1,987 runs since 2008 (328 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 365. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.6% from 248. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7% from 201.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 268 · newest first
The latest 50 of 268 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 April 2005 to 16 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is R Avial Lopez's strike rate?
R Avial Lopez has won 10 of 90 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.1% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is R Avial Lopez in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is R Avial Lopez's Fair A/E?
1.74, from 90 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
R Avial Lopez·SR 11.1%·A/E 1.74
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