2:28 Curragh
The 2:28 at the Curragh is a six-runner 0-70 nursery handicap over seven furlongs on good ground. A modest bunch of two-year-olds line up, none of whom has managed to break their maiden, though several have shown enough placed form to suggest they can be competitive at this level. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Tradewinds heading the numbers on 58, followed by Banks Of The Boyne on 51, Luca Brillante on 48 and Margot Mae on 47.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is clear: a lone leader with little to pressure it. Margot Mae is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead from stall three. The remainder of the field, featuring several hold-up performers and one prominent runner in Exchange Student, are likely to settle behind. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate a soft enough pace to make it hard for the closers to reel her in late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tradewinds KTB Selection58/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including two thirds here over shorter.
- 2Banks Of The Boyne51/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 3Luca Brillante48/100Fair performer who has shown some ability in three starts, finishing placed once at this trip.
- 4Margot Mae47/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form in three starts, finishing placed over this trip on her second outing.
- 5Elyatta37/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing ninth of 12 on debut and then well beaten twice since.
- 6Exchange Student35/100Limited performer who has failed to make the frame in four starts and finished a remote 11th on his only run here.
The contenders
Tradewinds KTB Fit 58/100
Tradewinds is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including two thirds here over shorter trips. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while the small sample on this going leaves suitability unknown. The trainer strikes at 9% here from 229 runs and the 3lb claimer is on 7% from 113 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested leader up front. His recent form of 532330 underlines his reliability at this level and he is the KTB Selection.
Banks Of The Boyne KTB Fit 51/100
Banks Of The Boyne is a fair performer in a similar mould, showing placed form without winning. He has been competitive on good ground without success and his sole Curragh run resulted in a fourth. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. The trainer operates at 6% strike rate at the Curragh from 286 runs while the 3lb claimer is on 4% from 180 rides here. His latest form of 802241 suggests he is in reasonable order.
Luca Brillante KTB Fit 48/100
Luca Brillante is a fair performer who has shown some ability in three starts, finishing placed once at this trip. Dropping back from 7½f should suit and the draw in stall 2 looks fine, though the Curragh run was ordinary. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to make a move once the pace quickens. The trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at the track, with 11% and 7% strike rates respectively. His form figures of 672 indicate steady rather than spectacular progress.
Margot Mae KTB Fit 47/100
Margot Mae is a fair performer who has shown consistent form in three starts, finishing placed over this trip on her second outing. She remains lightly raced with scope to improve further but has yet to win. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape and set an uncontested gallop. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate here at Curragh. With only one run on good ground to date and no previous course form, she remains something of an unknown quantity on the day.
The rest of the field
ElyattaKTB Fit 37/100
Elyatta is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing ninth of 12 on debut and then well beaten twice since. Stepping up to 7f for the first time today with first-time headgear applied, he faces a stiff task. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Curragh from 926 runs while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first winner from 23 rides here.
Exchange StudentKTB Fit 35/100
Exchange Student is a limited performer who has failed to make the frame in four starts and finished a remote 11th on his only run here. Stepping up from 6f to 7f having already been beaten twice at today's trip, he brings little encouragement. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Curragh and the 7lb claimer's 6% record at the track add little to his claims.
KTB verdict
Tradewinds is the KTB Selection. He has shown the most consistent placed form of the principals, including two thirds at this track, and his held-up style should see him delivered at the right time if the leader does not get away. The step up to 7f is the main unknown, yet his overall profile suggests he is the one to beat in a modest nursery. The main dangers are Margot Mae, who can dictate matters from the front, and Luca Brillante, who is well drawn and dropping back to a suitable trip. Banks Of The Boyne is next in the Fit order and cannot be entirely ruled out if the race sets up for a late closer.
KTB Selection Tradewinds
This is the narrative read of the 2:28 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get an uncontested lead?
Margot Mae, as the only confirmed front-runner in a lone-leader pace shape.
What is the first-time headgear runner?
Elyatta, who is also stepping up to 7f for the first time.
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Tradewinds on 58/100.
How many previous runs has Luca Brillante had at the Curragh?
One, when he finished 7th.
Which jockey is claiming 3lb on Tradewinds?
Paddy Harnett.
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