What is Donnacha Aidan O'Brien's strike rate?

Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has won 108 of 845 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Donnacha Aidan O'Brien do best at?

Navan by strike rate: 8 wins from 43 runners (18.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Donnacha Aidan O'Brien?

Gavin Ryan, with 514 runners since 2022 — 61% of the total. That pairing has won 66 (12.8%).

Is Donnacha Aidan O'Brien in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Donnacha Aidan O'Brien's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 845 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Donnacha Aidan O'Brien

845 runners in the last 5 seasons · 192 individual horses

As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.9% of 266 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 21 Oct 2026.

Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2022

108–845

Wins / Runs

12.8%

Strike rate

n=845

308 (36%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=845 · 0.80 incl. margin

−196.56

£1 level stake

n=845 at SP · −23.3%

£5.89m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 170 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 19% off breaks of two months or more (114 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 845 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 19.3% 33.3% when favourite Gavin Ryan: 12.8% from 514 Sends off the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Navan (18.6%, n=43), clear of the yard's 12.8% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 19.3% (n=114, Fair A/E 1.38), but debutants struggle at 7.6% (n=172, Fair A/E 0.77). Gavin Ryan rides 61% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (12.8%, A/E 0.92). The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (25.6%, n=43) and at trips under 6f (17.9%, n=78). 31 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes at Newmarket (Jul 2026, £453,680). The stable star of the record: Porta Fortuna (IRE) — 8 wins from 11 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

19.3%+6.5

n=114 · A/E 1.38 · £1 −18.69

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.5%−0.3

n=8 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −5.90

Debutants · first career start

7.6%−5.2

n=172 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −83.72

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.8%−5.0

n=77 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −17.17

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

20%+7.2

n=10 · A/E 1.58 · £1 +7.00

When favourite

33.3%

n=108 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −24.01

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.8%−1.0

n=152 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −6.09

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.2%−0.6

n=205 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −40.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a break of 180+ days 25.6% vs 12.8% · n=43

With Killian Leonard 3.2% vs 12.8% · n=31

With debutants 7.6% vs 12.8% · n=172

At trips under 6f 17.9% vs 12.8% · n=78

At Navan 18.6% vs 12.8% · n=43

With first-time headgear 7.8% vs 12.8% · n=77

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 841 107 12.7% −204.56

Hurdle 4 1 25% +8.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 357 35 9.8% −152.86

Soft 185 26 14.1% −64.96

Standard (AW) 119 18 15.1% +23.79

Heavy 67 9 13.4% −17.88

Good to Soft 65 10 15.4% −20.82

Good to Firm 51 9 17.6% +12.87

Firm 1 1 100% +23.30

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Curragh 171 18 10.5% −49.91

Dundalk (AW) 119 18 15.1% +23.79

Leopardstown 110 10 9.1% −46.40

Naas 84 12 14.3% −38.39

Cork 62 8 12.9% −20.15

Navan 43 8 18.6% −10.14

Gowran Park 33 3 9.1% −23.13

Killarney 29 8 27.6% +1.41

Tipperary 26 5 19.2% +6.38

Down Royal 23 2 8.7% −3.75

Fairyhouse 17 2 11.8% −2.00

Ascot 16 2 12.5% −5.50

Limerick 15 0 0% −15.00

Listowel 14 1 7.1% −10.50

Roscommon 12 2 16.7% −3.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 205 25 12.2% −40.75

Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 124 36 29% 0.89 −40.01

2nd–3rd fav 267 44 16.5% 0.95 −66.85

4th–6th fav 277 22 7.9% 1.10 −37.00

7th+ in betting 177 6 3.4% 1.03 −52.70

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Kilmeaden (IRE)then Faye Bramley 14 2 6 26 Jun 26

Wodao (FR)then Jamie Osborne 14 2 6 24 Sep 23

Comanche Brave (IRE) 13 5 9 13 Sep 26

Spinning Around (IRE) 12 2 5 4 Oct 26

Lady Doris (IRE) 12 2 4 21 Jun 25

Amusement (IRE) 12 1 4 12 Sep 23

Happy Pharoah (IRE) 11 3 6 19 Jul 26

Porta Fortuna (IRE) 11 8 11 25 May 25

A Boy Named Susie (IRE) 10 2 6 12 Sep 26

Havana Anna (GB) 10 3 7 23 Aug 26

Kensington Lane (IRE) 10 3 5 4 Jul 26

Dahlia Noir (IRE) 10 1 3 22 Aug 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 192 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 60 had their first archived run here.

12 have since run for another yard; 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 10

Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

400716131017815101433

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderGavin Ryan

61% of all rides
12.8% SR · A/E 0.92

RiderRWSR£1

Gavin Ryan 514 66 12.8% −184.60

Paddy Harnett 151 18 11.9% −5.09

Chris Hayes 58 8 13.8% −6.97

Killian Leonard 31 1 3.2% −14.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

145

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.44m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 28 wins

Comanche Brave (IRE) — Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes (Group 1) Newmarket · Jul 2026 · Group 1

£453,680

Porta Fortuna (IRE) — Coronation Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (British Champions Stakes) (Rnd) Ascot · Jun 2024 · Group 1

£368,615

Fancy Blue (IRE) — Prix de Diane Longines (3yo Fillies) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Jul 2020 · Group 1

£326,569

Notable horses

Porta Fortuna (IRE) Comanche Brave (IRE) Moon Daisy (IRE) Shale (IRE) Happy Pharoah (IRE) Havana Anna (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Galileo (IRE) 11.6% · 10–86

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,191 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 889.

Ten Sovereigns (IRE) 16.9% · 13–77

Progeny have won 11% of 1,578 runs since 2008 (239 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.2% from 157. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.4% from 148.

Wootton Bassett (GB) 17.4% · 12–69

Progeny have won 13.1% of 5,637 runs since 2008 (788 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.1% from 161.

Australia (GB) 10% · 6–60

Progeny have won 11.2% of 5,639 runs since 2008 (563 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Churchill (IRE) 15% · 9–60

Progeny have won 11% of 4,788 runs since 2008 (459 horses).

No Nay Never (USA) 7.3% · 4–55

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,310 runs since 2008 (705 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9% from 612. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.6% from 185.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,132 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,132 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 January 2020 to 20 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Isle Of Capri (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Staffordstown Stud Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 8f · Yielding · 11 ran 4th 18/1

17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Maathoor (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden7f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 33/1

17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Miss Hong Kong (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Laidlaw Cup Fillies Maiden7f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 5/1

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Hip Hop Chrissy (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett James Crowe 1 Year Memorial Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 10/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Glyfada (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Garnet Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Soft · 16 ran 3rd 8/1

09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Final Ascent (USA)J: Gavin Ryan Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 9/2

09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Madam Sweetie Pie (USA)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 14/1

09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Sake Nights (GB)J: Gavin Ryan Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 11/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Yogini (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan www.thurlesraces.ie Maiden16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 6th 7/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Abiding (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 7th 12/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Shaihaan (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 11f · Soft · 8 ran 1st 3/1F

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Forthethrillofit (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden8f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 8th 100/1

04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Spinning Around (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Hailey Equine Irish EBF Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 6f · Soft · 16 ran 7th 10/1

03 Oct 26 Ascot Josh's Joy (IRE)J: Jason Watson Betmgm British Ebf October Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 4th 12/1

02 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Chosen One (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Maiden7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 20/1

02 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Near Perfection (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Maiden7f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 25/1

02 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Duidin (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 50/1

02 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Zoar (USA)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 50/1

02 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dee's Funny Girl (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 5/1

29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Alfresco (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 11/4J

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Donnacha Aidan O'Brien's strike rate?: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has won 108 of 845 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Donnacha Aidan O'Brien do best at?: Navan by strike rate: 8 wins from 43 runners (18.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Donnacha Aidan O'Brien?: Gavin Ryan, with 514 runners since 2022 — 61% of the total. That pairing has won 66 (12.8%).
Is Donnacha Aidan O'Brien in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Donnacha Aidan O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 845 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.