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Jockey profile

Paddy Harnett

694 rides in the last 5 seasons · 407 individual horses
As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
In form — 5 winners last 14 days Last ride 5 days ago 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2022
59–694
Wins / Runs
8.5%
Strike rate
n=694
180 (26%)
Placed
1.14
Fair A/E
n=692 · 0.91 incl. margin
+152.43
£1 level stake
n=694 at SP · +22.0%
£946k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
14.1%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 140 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.14). The rider is in form now — 5 winners in the last fortnight, above their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 694 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 11 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 24.4% when favourite Donnacha Aidan O'Brien: 12.2% from 156 Rides the favourite in 6% of races
The read

It is weakest at Navan (2.6% over 39 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 6.6% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.23 and +8.33 to a £1 stake over 106 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the rider is firing: 5 winners from 20 rides in the last 14 days (25%, 16.5pts above the 8.5% baseline). Donnacha Aidan O'Brien supplies 22% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.2% vs 8.5%, A/E 0.96). The rider also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (19%, n=42) and off a 0-7-day break (14.7%, n=34). Seasonally, the rider fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
8.4%−0.1
n=394 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +154.60
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
9.5%+1.0
n=42 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −20.17
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
6.6%−1.9
n=106 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +8.33
When favourite
24.4%
n=41 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −6.48
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.3%−0.2
n=605 · A/E 1.10 · £1 +104.93
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.5%−2.0
n=370 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −24.56
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.5
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 17.6% vs 8.5% · n=85
Over 1m5f – 2m 19% vs 8.5% · n=42
With first-time headgear 14.6% vs 8.5% · n=48
Off a 0-7-day break 14.7% vs 8.5% · n=34
At Navan 2.6% vs 8.5% · n=39
With Donnacha Aidan O'Brien 12.2% vs 8.5% · n=156
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 203 15 7.4% +22.75
Standard (AW) 187 19 10.2% −33.26
Soft 180 20 11.1% +226.94
Heavy 52 3 5.8% −6.50
Good to Soft 48 2 4.2% −33.50
Good to Firm 24 0 0% −24.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 184 19 10.3% −30.26
Curragh 85 6 7.1% −37.56
Gowran Park 62 6 9.7% +68.50
Leopardstown 49 5 10.2% −16.50
Cork 46 3 6.5% −20.50
Navan 39 1 2.6% −36.00
Naas 34 2 5.9% −13.50
Killarney 30 2 6.7% +38.00
Tipperary 21 1 4.8% −17.75
Roscommon 20 3 15% +190.50
Listowel 20 1 5% +14.00
Limerick 18 2 11.1% +43.00
Fairyhouse 17 1 5.9% −13.00
Galway 16 2 12.5% +2.50
Down Royal 11 1 9.1% −5.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 11 0 0% −11.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 49 12 24.5% 1.01 −5.15
2nd–3rd fav 104 18 17.3% 1.09 −12.92
4th–6th fav 176 17 9.7% 1.30 −8.50
7th+ in betting 365 12 3.3% 1.17 +179.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Liamo (IRE) 15 0 4 28 Oct 26
Skib Gold (GB) 11 1 2 26 May 26
Rion Rubette (GB) 9 2 3 1 Nov 26
Secret Magician (IRE) 9 0 1 11 Jun 26
Happy Pharoah (IRE) 8 3 6 19 Jul 26
The Bear Trap (IRE) 8 0 3 5 May 25
Chavajod (GB) 7 1 3 12 Aug 26
Itsalonglongroad (GB) 7 0 1 21 Jul 25
Barnhill Rose (GB) 7 1 3 8 Aug 24
Navajo Point (IRE) 6 2 3 15 Oct 26
Ocean Echo (IRE) 6 0 1 22 Aug 26
Slaney Swagger (IRE) 6 0 4 10 Dec 25
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 407 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form
5 from 20 25% · +16.5pts vs baseline
Last 14 days25%
5-season base8.5%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
14093481210810135
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardDonnacha Aidan O'Brien
22% of all rides
12.2% SR · A/E 0.96
TrainerRWSR£1
Donnacha Aidan O'Brien 156 19 12.2% +2.91
Martin Hassett 43 4 9.3% −8.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
79
Archived wins
£1.19m
Prize money
2026
Best season · 31 wins
Happy Pharoah (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Petingo Handicap (Premier Handicap) Leopardstown · Sep 2025
£88,500
Rion Rubette (GB) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap Gowran Park · Apr 2026
£17,670
Spinning Around (IRE) — Keadeen Hotel Supporting Newbridge Community Day Irish European Breeders Fund Fillies Handicap Curragh · May 2026
£15,314
Notable horses
Happy Pharoah (IRE) Rion Rubette (GB) Navajo Point (IRE) Gloucester (IRE) Bishopton (IRE) Sequoiaspirit (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Profitable (IRE) 2.9% · 1–35
Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,449 runs since 2021 (358 horses).
No Nay Never (USA) 9.5% · 2–21
Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,379 runs since 2018 (710 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.1% from 618. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 187.
Ten Sovereigns (IRE) 19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 10.9% of 1,614 runs since 2023 (245 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17% from 159. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.3% from 150.
Wootton Bassett (GB) 17.6% · 3–17
Progeny have won 13% of 5,710 runs since 2015 (793 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 162.
Australia (GB) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 11.1% of 5,681 runs since 2018 (569 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.
Churchill (IRE) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 11% of 4,851 runs since 2021 (462 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,130 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,130 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 November 2018 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dance On Crow (IRE)T: P J F Murphy Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden8f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 150/1
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Callianassa (IRE)T: Brian Ellison Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cooley Fillies Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 20/1
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Justenzia (IRE)T: Denis Gerard Hogan BAR 1 Betting 'Acca Boost' Apprentice Handicap12f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 11/2
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Saoirse Silk (IRE)T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 33/1
04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) By The Lake (IRE)T: Derek McCormack Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 16/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Shosholoza (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 7th 25/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Nogs (IRE)T: M J Byrne Velo Coffee At The Curragh Maiden12f · Yielding · 19 ran 19th 500/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Lady Lilac (IRE)T: Joseph G Murphy Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 2nd 12/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Venetian Star (IRE)T: Patrick T Foley Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 16th 33/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Rion Rubette (GB)T: Michael Butler Ryans Cleaning Race7f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 4th 18/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Choctaw Nation (IRE)T: Aidan O'Brien Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 1st 4/9F
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Zoffman (IRE)T: Noel Meade Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 12/1
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Stars Will Shine (IRE)T: Noel Meade Happy Halloween Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 25/1
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Lookingforarainbow (USA)T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden8f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 6/5F
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Steel Magnolia (IRE)T: W. McCreery View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 18/1
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Buttermere Ridge (IRE)T: Oliver McKiernan See You At The GR1 Double Header – 21 & 22 November Handicap (Div II)7f · Yielding · 11 ran 1st 11/2
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Tai Tam Bay (IRE)T: Eddie & Patrick Harty See You At The GR1 Double Header 21 & 22 November Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7f · Yielding · 12 ran 1st 13/2
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Spectical (IRE)T: Ciaran Murphy Premiere Weekend Two-Day Ticket Just €35 Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 6th 14/1
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Wecouldavehaditall (IRE)T: Daniel McLoughlin Premiere Weekend Race & Dine Packages From €75pp Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 6 ran 5th 13/8F
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Imposing (IRE)T: Aidan O'Brien Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 1st 7/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 12 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 4 runs (won 3, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 1) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paddy Harnett's strike rate?
Paddy Harnett has won 59 of 694 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paddy Harnett do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 19 wins from 184 rides (10.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paddy Harnett ride most for?
Donnacha Aidan O'Brien, with 156 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (12.2%).
Is Paddy Harnett in form?
In the last 14 days: 20 rides, 5 winners, a strike rate of 25%. That is above the baseline of 8.5% since 2022.
What is Paddy Harnett's Fair A/E?
1.14, from 692 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 11 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).