3:53 Cartmel
The Molson Coors Cartmel Cup Handicap Hurdle is a competitive Class 3 contest over 2m1f46y at Cartmel on good to soft ground. A field of 14 features several smart performers stepping up or dropping in class, with recent form and course records playing a significant part. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Saligo Bay on 70, with four others between 67 and 60 underlining the depth on show.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence and little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB rankings, are held-up types who produce their effort late. Edelak is the notable exception as a front-runner, raising the key question of whether he can dictate terms or if the uncontested leader will simply get first run and prove hard to peg back from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Saligo Bay KTB Selection70/100Saligo Bay is a high-class performer with a solid record here, including a win from four runs at Cartmel.
- 2Banderas67/100Smart performer who arrives in decent form after winning last time.
- 3King Ulanda62/100Smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last four starts.
- 4Morning Mayhem61/100Smart performer who arrives in solid form with a string of competitive runs this year.
- 5Lightening Company60/100Useful performer who has won twice at Cartmel from seven starts and also has a solid record at today's trip with two wins from eight attempts.
- 6Medieval Gold60/100Medieval Gold is a smart performer with solid recent form including two wins and multiple placings.
- 7Edelak60/100Edelak is a high-class performer on the balance of his ratings and recent form that includes four wins from his last six completed starts.
- 8My Chiquita59/100High-class performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 9Zillow55/100Zillow is a high-class performer on the balance of his career ratings and race history yet has failed to show that level of ability for some time.
- 10Roysse55/100Roysse arrives in excellent order after two wins and carries a high-class rating.
- 11Virtual Rock48/100Smart performer who arrives off the back of two solid placed efforts last season.
- 12Got Grey46/100Smart performer who has been placed on his last three starts and knows this track well.
- 13Drombeg Lad46/100Smart performer who arrives in solid nick after a win and a second on his last two starts.
- 14Al Mootamarid45/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts from his last three starts.
The contenders
Saligo Bay KTB Fit 70/100
Saligo Bay is a high-class performer with a solid record here, including a win from four runs at Cartmel. He has won three times on good to soft from ten starts and also has a win at today's trip, though his recent form has been patchy and he steps back up in distance from 1m2½f. The yard and jockey both hold strong records at this track, the trainer showing a 19% strike rate at Cartmel with an A/E of 1.12 from 130 runs and the jockey a 21% strike rate with an A/E of 1.23 from 130 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. His trainer-jockey combination shows 169 wins from 1289 rides at 13% with an A/E of 0.91.
Banderas KTB Fit 67/100
Banderas is a smart performer who arrives in decent form after winning last time. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance on his only previous attempt, though he has only been placed once from two starts on good to soft. Trainer and jockey both have solid 19% strike rates at Cartmel, the trainer with an A/E of 1.12 from 130 runs and the jockey an A/E of 1.35 from 159 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will need to bridge the gap to the leader in a race likely to be run at a steady pace up front. The trainer-jockey partnership reads 5 wins from 9 rides at 56%.
King Ulanda KTB Fit 62/100
King Ulanda is a smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having already shown he can win at this distance, and his record on good to soft ground reads well with a win and two places from five runs. The trainer has a strong 22% strike rate at Cartmel from 23 runs with an A/E of 1.41, while the jockey is still seeking his first success here from nine rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be another looking to strike late against what could be an uncontested leader. The trainer-jockey record stands at 3 wins from 27 rides at 11% with an A/E of 0.64.
Morning Mayhem KTB Fit 61/100
Morning Mayhem is a smart performer who arrives in solid form with a string of competitive runs this year. He drops back to a trip he has won over and has already shown he handles good to soft ground with one win from three starts and one place. The trainer has had too few runners here to judge with a 0% strike rate from two runs, while the jockey’s 21% strike rate at Cartmel with an A/E of 1.2 from 43 rides offers some encouragement. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be relying on a strong finish if the leader is allowed to get away. The trainer-jockey combination shows 6 wins from 39 rides at 15% with an A/E of 1.16.
Lightening Company KTB Fit 60/100
Lightening Company is a useful performer who has won twice at Cartmel from seven starts and also has a solid record at today's trip with two wins from eight attempts. He acts on good to soft ground having scored twice from six starts on it. The yard and jockey both hold strong records at this track, the trainer with a 20% strike rate and A/E of 1.28 from 157 runs and the jockey a 19% strike rate with an A/E of 1.2 from 21 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will need to time his run well against the likely uncontested leader. The trainer-jockey record is 3 wins from 39 rides at 8% with an A/E of 0.61.
The rest of the field
Medieval GoldKTB Fit 60/100
Medieval Gold is a smart performer with solid recent form including two wins and multiple placings. He has already shown he handles good to soft ground and has won over today's trip, though he steps up in distance from his most recent run. The yard's small sample at Cartmel makes their record hard to judge while the jockey's 9% strike rate from 110 rides here is modest.
EdelakKTB Fit 60/100
Edelak is a high-class performer on the balance of his ratings and recent form that includes four wins from his last six completed starts. He steps up in trip today having been unsuccessful in his one previous try at this distance while the good-to-soft ground is also an unknown. The Skelton team bring strong figures at Cartmel with the trainer operating at a 20% strike rate and the jockey at 30%.
My ChiquitaKTB Fit 59/100
My Chiquita is a high-class performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is solid with a win and two placed efforts from her last four starts, though she failed to place on her only previous run on good to soft ground. Trainer has a 12% strike rate from 729 runs here while the jockey is operating at 8% from 48 rides.
ZillowKTB Fit 55/100
Zillow is a high-class performer on the balance of his career ratings and race history yet has failed to show that level of ability for some time. He was pulled up on his latest start and could only manage seventh on his one previous visit to Cartmel. The trainer has had too few runners here to judge while Harry Cobden is still seeking his first Cartmel winner from 14 rides.
RoysseKTB Fit 55/100
Roysse arrives in excellent order after two wins and carries a high-class rating. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while the switch to Cartmel is an unknown. Trainer and jockey both have only one run at the track so far so their local record remains unproven.
Virtual RockKTB Fit 48/100
Virtual Rock is a smart performer who arrives off the back of two solid placed efforts last season. He steps up in trip today having last been seen over a mile and three, which asks a fresh question of him, while this is also his first run at Cartmel. Trainer has only had one previous runner here so that side remains unknown, though Sean Bowen brings a solid 21% strike rate at the track.
Got GreyKTB Fit 46/100
Got Grey is a smart performer who has been placed on his last three starts and knows this track well. Cartmel record reads 4th 5th 3rd from three runs while he drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow at this distance in four previous attempts. Trainer and jockey both have solid records here though the yard's 12 percent strike rate from a huge sample is only fair.
Drombeg LadKTB Fit 46/100
Drombeg Lad is a smart performer who arrives in solid nick after a win and a second on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Cartmel.
Al MootamaridKTB Fit 45/100
Al Mootamarid is a useful performer who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question, while this is also his first run at Cartmel. The yard and jockey both have very limited data here so it is difficult to gauge how much support they will get.
KTB verdict
Saligo Bay stands out as the KTB Selection. His high-class ability, proven record at Cartmel including a win from four starts, and three wins from ten on good to soft ground give him strong claims, especially with the yard and jockey’s excellent local statistics. The uncontested lead predicted by the pace shape may make life tough for held-up performers, yet his ability to produce a late effort at this venue has been demonstrated before. Main dangers include Banderas, who arrives in decent form and has won at the trip, King Ulanda with his strong recent record and trainer’s local strike rate, and the course winner Lightening Company who also boasts solid track and trip figures.
KTB Selection Saligo Bay
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 29 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Saligo Bay | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Banderas | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Morning Mayhem | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Lightening Company | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Medieval Gold | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Edelak | 7/2 | William Hill |
| My Chiquita | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Zillow | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Roysse | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Virtual Rock | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Got Grey | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Drombeg Lad | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Al Mootamarid | 18/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:53 Cartmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cartmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cartmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at Cartmel?
Saligo Bay has won here from four runs and Lightening Company has won twice here from seven starts, while My Chiquita has also won here from two runs.
Who is likely to make the running?
Edelak tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, in a race with a lone leader pace shape and most others held up.
Which horses are stepping up in trip?
Banderas, King Ulanda, Edelak, Roysse, Virtual Rock, Drombeg Lad and Al Mootamarid are all stepping up in trip today.
How many horses in the field have no course form?
Nine horses have no course form on record: Banderas, King Ulanda, Morning Mayhem, Medieval Gold, Edelak, Roysse, Virtual Rock, Drombeg Lad and Al Mootamarid.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Cartmel?
Harry Skelton has a 30% strike rate at Cartmel from 23 rides with an A/E of 1.01.
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