What is Kevin Brogan's strike rate?

Kevin Brogan has won 86 of 1,011 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Kevin Brogan do best at?

Doncaster by strike rate: 7 wins from 30 rides (23.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Kevin Brogan ride most for?

Toby Lawes, with 160 rides since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 20 (12.5%).

Is Kevin Brogan in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Kevin Brogan's Fair A/E?

0.80, from 1,008 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Kevin Brogan

1,011 rides in the last 5 seasons · 537 individual horses

As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 4 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

86–1,011

Wins / Runs

8.5%

Strike rate

n=1,011

269 (27%)

Placed

0.80

Fair A/E

n=1,008 · 0.69 incl. margin

−351.34

£1 level stake

n=1,010 at SP · −34.8%

£1.30m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 200 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.80). When claiming the record reads 18% (96 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,011 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 29.9% when favourite Toby Lawes: 12.5% from 160 LTO winners: 15.1% Claiming: 17.7% Rides the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Doncaster (23.3%, n=30), clear of the rider's 8.5% baseline. It is weakest at Uttoxeter (2.6% over 76 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Claiming rides have been a positive signal at 17.7% (n=96, Fair A/E 1.20), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.5% (n=244, Fair A/E 0.53). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 8% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −130.40 to a £1 stake over 498 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Toby Lawes supplies 16% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.5% vs 8.5%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well beyond 3m (14.7%, n=95). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the bet365 Handicap Chase at Ascot (Jan 2022, £44,479). Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8%−0.5

n=498 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −130.40

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.1%+6.6

n=86 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −32.91

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

4.5%−4.0

n=244 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −162.72

When favourite

29.9%

n=77 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −17.21

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

17.7%+9.2

n=96 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +7.03

Big fields · 14+ runners

7%−1.5

n=115 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −30.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.9%−2.6

n=17 · A/E 0.88 · £1 +17.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Doncaster 23.3% vs 8.5% · n=30

When claiming 17.7% vs 8.5% · n=96

On last-time-out winners 15.1% vs 8.5% · n=86

Beyond 3m 14.7% vs 8.5% · n=95

With Jonjo & A J O'Neill 2.6% vs 8.5% · n=77

At Uttoxeter 2.6% vs 8.5% · n=76

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 633 55 8.7% −182.17

Chase 316 29 9.2% −122.67

NH Flat 59 2 3.4% −43.50

Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 449 40 8.9% −222.53

Good to Soft 281 26 9.3% +17.11

Soft 216 15 6.9% −119.42

Heavy 53 4 7.5% −19.00

Good to Firm 12 1 8.3% −7.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Uttoxeter 76 2 2.6% −66.25

Southwell 58 3 5.2% −48.90

Warwick 54 5 9.3% −20.50

Bangor-on-Dee 48 4 8.3% +42.85

Stratford 45 3 6.7% −26.80

Market Rasen 44 5 11.4% −21.49

Fontwell 44 2 4.5% −34.67

Worcester 38 3 7.9% +0.00

Huntingdon 35 2 5.7% −17.50

Ffos Las 32 4 12.5% −5.17

Doncaster 30 7 23.3% +14.83

Chepstow 30 4 13.3% −12.25

Wetherby 29 4 13.8% −6.55

Hereford 28 4 14.3% −10.25

Wincanton 26 4 15.4% −1.19

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 440 37 8.4% −218.65

Class 5 331 29 8.8% −152.75

Class 3 127 12 9.4% +22.99

Class 2 72 7 9.7% +4.07

Class 1 39 1 2.6% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 87 25 28.7% 0.93 −18.46

2nd–3rd fav 241 36 14.9% 0.84 −67.88

4th–6th fav 343 16 4.7% 0.61 −164.00

7th+ in betting 339 8 2.4% 0.79 −101.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.9% completed · 949 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 316 76.9% 10 13 45 3 2

Hurdle 633 88.9% 8 4 57 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Duhallow Tommy (IRE) 11 1 3 8 Apr 26

Surrey Quest (IRE) 11 1 4 14 Mar 26

Jalisco Star (IRE) 10 2 4 27 Mar 26

Sir Rock (IRE) 10 2 2 7 Nov 25

Dee Star (IRE) 10 3 6 17 Apr 24

Escort'kheops (FR) 9 1 6 31 Mar 26

Surrey Lord (IRE) 9 2 4 17 Jan 26

Inishbiggle (IRE) 9 1 3 20 Dec 23

La Higuera (IRE) 8 2 4 1 Mar 26

Daranova (IRE) 8 2 5 7 Nov 23

Old Jewry (IRE) 8 1 3 21 Sep 22

Inedit De Mee (FR) 7 0 1 16 Mar 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 537 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 5

Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

14101171470451264

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardToby Lawes

16% of all rides
12.5% SR · A/E 0.97

TrainerRWSR£1

Toby Lawes 160 20 12.5% −27.74

Gary Hanmer 101 9 8.9% −52.77

Jonjo O'Neill 91 7 7.7% +58.50

Olly Murphy 85 7 8.2% −56.49

Jonjo & A J O'Neill 77 2 2.6% −55.50

Laura Horsfall 70 6 8.6% −18.92

Ben Haslam 35 1 2.9% −29.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

144

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.78m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 40 wins

Phoenix Way (IRE) — bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Ascot · Jan 2022 · Class 2

£44,479

Belle Montrose (IRE) — Gamble Plant (Norfolk) Ltd Queen Boudicca Series Final Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Fakenham · Jan 2026 · Class 2

£26,015

St Pancras (GB) — bet365 Scottish Triumph Hurdle (Juvenile Hurdle) (Listed) (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Feb 2025 · Listed

£22,780

Notable horses

Dee Star (IRE) Espinator (FR) Craven Bay (IRE) Revels Hill (IRE) Vocal Duke (IRE) Vee Dancer (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mahler (GB) 16.1% · 9–56

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,836 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Milan (GB) 5.1% · 2–39

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,843 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Fame And Glory (GB) 9.1% · 3–33

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,203 runs since 2008 (504 horses).

Getaway (GER) 9.1% · 3–33

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,912 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.

Flemensfirth (USA) 4.5% · 1–22

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,274 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Shirocco (GER) 13.6% · 3–22

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,161 runs since 2008 (920 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,446 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,446 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 July 2017 to 15 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

15 Oct 26 Perth Berkenshtaaap (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Racingtv, Home Of Live Racing Handicap Steeple Chase (Div II) (gbb Race)Class 4 · 20f · Soft · 7 ran 1st 5/1

15 Oct 26 Perth Double Oban (GB)T: Olly Murphy Every Irish Race Live On RacingTV Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 16/1

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Klycot (FR)T: Richard Bandey Alderbrook Handicap Stakes (For Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 7th 5/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Flash Man (FR)T: Toby Lawes Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 8/1

07 Oct 26 Sedgefield Kientzheim (FR)T: Ben Haslam Jodie Standings Point-To-Point Recruits Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North One Man Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 4 ran 4th 7/2

05 Oct 26 Stratford Christine's Star (GB)T: Michael Mullineaux Join Racing TV Now Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 500/1

27 Sep 26 Epsom Flash Man (FR)T: Toby Lawes Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap Stakes (For Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 13 ran 4th 100/1

29 Aug 26 Cartmel Lightening Company (IRE)T: Ben Haslam Molson Coors Cartmel Cup Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 20/1

28 Aug 26 Sedgefield Jolie Coeur Allen (FR)T: Ben Haslam Warm-Flo Hot To Trot Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 15/2

28 Aug 26 Sedgefield Scopic (GB)T: Ben Haslam Newts Rocket To The Top Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good · 10 ran 10th 150/1

25 Aug 26 Stratford Pink Walls (GB)T: M Mullineaux Stratford Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 22f · Good To Firm · 8 ran PU 150/1

23 Aug 26 Worcester Doyouknowwhatimean (GB)T: Gary Hanmer Neu-Servo Rapid Response Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 6th 33/1

26 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Granny B (IRE)T: M Mullineaux Roys Ices Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 7th 25/1

25 Jul 26 York Cayman Tai (IRE)T: Richard Hannon Sky Bet "Jump Jockeys' Nunthorpe" Handicap Stakes (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys)Class 4 · 5f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 5th 28/1

16 Jul 26 Worcester Witheros Hill (IRE)T: Laura Horsfall Copybet Support Safer Gambling Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23f · Good · 5 ran 4th 50/1

15 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Christine's Star (GB)T: Michael Mullineaux QuinnBet Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 11th 500/1

15 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Granny B (IRE)T: Michael Mullineaux Jack Frost Chiller & Freezer Hire Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 7th 18/1

12 Jul 26 Stratford Pink Walls (GB)T: Michael Mullineaux Next Sunday Is Ladies Day Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 22f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 100/1

10 Jul 26 Worcester Doyouknowwhatimean (GB)T: Gary Hanmer Amodil Group Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23f · Good · 5 ran 4th 4/1

01 Jul 26 Worcester Doyouknowwhatimean (GB)T: Gary Hanmer Perrigo Consultant Tax Saving Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23f · Good · 11 ran 6th 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Kevin Brogan's strike rate?: Kevin Brogan has won 86 of 1,011 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kevin Brogan do best at?: Doncaster by strike rate: 7 wins from 30 rides (23.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Kevin Brogan ride most for?: Toby Lawes, with 160 rides since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 20 (12.5%).
Is Kevin Brogan in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Kevin Brogan's Fair A/E?: 0.80, from 1,008 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.