4:55 Cartmel
This Class 3 handicap steeplechase at Cartmel over 2m5f34y on good to soft ground brings together eight runners in what looks a competitive affair. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with four principals separated by just five points, underlining the depth of the race. Overall the numbers point to a tactical contest where course form, trip suitability and trainer records at the venue will be key factors.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader and is expected to produce a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay dividends. With the top four principals all tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question will be whether any horse can quicken effectively off a steady gallop on this sharp track or whether one of the more prominent runners can steal an advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bleu d'Enfer KTB Selection65/100
Bleu d'Enfer is a high-class performer on his day and arrives with strong recent form figures of 829-24 that include solid placed efforts. He drops back from 3m to a trip at which he has placed twice from three starts, though he has never won over this distance. Donald McCain holds a 19% strike rate at Cartmel from 404 runs while this is the horse's first run here. Theo Gillard has a 15% strike rate at the track from 34 rides. The combination of held-up run style and good-to-soft placed form from six starts adds to his profile in a steadily-run affair. He is the KTB Selection.
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2Karnaval Point64/100
Karnaval Point is a high-class performer on his day and brings a solid recent record that includes two wins this season from figures of 1-1316. He drops back in trip having looked stretched over further last time out while both the Cartmel debut and lack of experience on good to soft are unknowns. David Pipe has a 13% strike rate at the track from 32 runs and the yard's record with this jockey reads 22/90 with a positive A/E of 1.31. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps down in class which should help his cause in a tactical race.
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3Passengerontheship61/100
Passengerontheship is a smart performer who has won five of his last six starts from recent figures of 111115 and looks well placed to add to that tally. Cartmel clearly suits with a win from two runs at the track and he has also won at today's trip. Sam England has a 19% strike rate at Cartmel from 131 runs while Jonathan England boasts a 21% strike rate at the venue from 131 rides. Usually held up, he is stepping up in class but his placed effort on good to soft from five starts keeps him firmly in the picture.
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4Sean Og60/100
Sean Og is a smart performer who has won five times at Cartmel from 12 starts and also holds a solid record at today's trip with five wins from 13 runs. He has won on good to soft ground though his record on it is only one from five, and he arrives in decent form having landed two of his last three starts from figures of 74-141. Dianne Sayer has a 16% strike rate at this track from 300 runs while Sean Quinlan has a 15% strike rate from 234 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence, he steps up in class but his course record makes him a major player.
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5King Roly59/100
King Roly is a high-class performer on his best days and arrives in decent nick after a recent win from figures of 6-P291. He has never run at Cartmel before while the trainer holds a 16% strike rate here from 62 runs. Dropping back in trip looks a fair enough move though he remains winless on good to soft ground from two attempts and steps up in class.
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6Pour Les Filles57/100
Pour Les Filles is high-class on the figures and with strong course connections yet has failed to win in 15 starts this year and looks short of spark on recent efforts from figures of 50-33P. Has placed twice at Cartmel without winning and is zero from two on good to soft ground. Untried by the Bowen father-and-son combination at this track where the yard operate at a 16% strike rate while dropping in class.
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7Cossack Chach50/100
Cossack Chach is a high-class performer on the balance of his ratings and race history from figures of 71/P-3. He steps up in trip today having last run over much shorter, while his sole run on good to soft produced no win or place. The yard has a 0% strike rate from six runs at Cartmel.
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8Jack Sprat44/100
Jack Sprat is a useful performer who has placed on both previous completed runs at Cartmel and looks suited by this trip having been placed twice from six attempts from figures of 74-923. He has won on good to soft but his record on this ground is otherwise ordinary with just two further places from nine starts. The yard’s solid 12 percent strike rate at the track adds some confidence though he steps up in class and typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Bleu d'Enfer stands out as the KTB Selection. His high-class ability on the right day, combined with solid recent placed efforts and a drop back to a trip where he has performed creditably, gives him the strongest overall profile. Donald McCain and Theo Gillard's respective records at Cartmel add further layers of confidence in a race where his held-up style should suit the expected steady pace. The main dangers are Passengerontheship, who has been winning for fun and boasts excellent course and trainer-jockey figures, and Sean Og, whose five course victories make him a major threat on this track. Karnaval Point cannot be ruled out if he handles the ground and the venue.
KTB Selection Bleu d'Enfer
This is the narrative read of the 4:55 Cartmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cartmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cartmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the most Cartmel wins in the field?
Sean Og with five wins from 12 starts at the track.
How many of Passengerontheship's last six starts have been wins?
Five.
What is Donald McCain's strike rate at Cartmel?
19% from 404 runs.
Which principal is dropping in class?
Karnaval Point.
How many of the field are described as high-class performers?
Five.
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