Derek Fox
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 230 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.88). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (151 rides). Rides mostly for Lucinda Russell — 58% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Kelso (19%, n=189), clear of the rider's 12.7% baseline. It is weakest at Haydock (2.9% over 35 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.6% (n=151, Fair A/E 0.86), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.7% (n=89, Fair A/E 0.82). Lucinda Russell supplies 58% of the rides and edges the rider's average (15.6% vs 12.7%, A/E 0.93). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 5.7% over 88 rides, 7pts below the baseline. 13 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree (Apr 2017, £561,300). The standout partner of the record: Sword Of Fate (IRE) — 7 wins from 37 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2009→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 3,232 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 3,232 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 4 May 2009 to 24 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Derek Fox's strike rate?
- Derek Fox has won 146 of 1,150 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.7% (as at 25 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Derek Fox do best at?
- Kelso by strike rate: 36 wins from 189 rides (19%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Derek Fox ride most for?
- Lucinda Russell, with 666 rides since 2022 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 104 (15.6%).
- Is Derek Fox in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 14 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Derek Fox's Fair A/E?
- 0.88, from 1,149 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.