1:55 Bath
This Class 3 novice stakes over 1m2f37y at Bath on good ground brings together a small but interesting field of six where experience is limited and several runners are tackling new distances. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Colonnade heading the numbers on 60, followed closely by No Ordinary Joe on 56, Indian Mary on 54 and Soul Of Appin on 48. Overall the KTB assessment points to a race where progressive potential and yard form at the venue may count for more than established handicap ratings.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and is expected to produce a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late. The key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for those coming from off the pace to make ground, or whether the prominent runners can steal an advantage in a tactical contest.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Colonnade KTB Selection60/100
Colonnade has shown fair form in three runs this year, finishing third on each occasion without looking overburdened. The step up from 1m to 1m2f is a fresh question and could suit, though there is not enough evidence yet to be certain. The Crisford yard fires at a 27% strike rate at Bath while Jack Mitchell is a regular rider here with a solid 14% record. As the KTB Selection he holds the highest Fit rating of 60 and steps up in class having recorded form figures of 353. Usually held up, he will be produced late in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair, with his unproven status on good ground the main unknown. The combination of yard course stats and his consistent placed efforts gives him a clear edge on paper.
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2No Ordinary Joe56/100
No Ordinary Joe has been below form on his last two starts and is now dropping back in trip to one he has never tried. He handles good ground well enough with two wins from nine attempts and the yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at Bath. This looks like an unknown trip for a 10-year-old with 33 runs on the clock. Rated 56 on KTB Fit, he is the second highest in the field and will be ridden by Dylan Hogan who holds a 12% strike rate at the track. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race that may not be run to suit him. The lack of course form adds another layer of uncertainty for this veteran.
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3Indian Mary54/100
Indian Mary was well beaten on her only start over 1m1½f. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of her. The yard and Laura Pearson both have solid records at Bath but with only one run on the board this remains very much unknown territory. Carrying a KTB Fit of 54, she steps up in class as a 3-year-old with form figures of 8 and is another who is usually held up. The trainer posts an 18% strike rate at Bath and the jockey a 16% record, both positive pointers in a race short on established form. Her lack of experience on good ground remains the chief concern in what is expected to be a tactical affair.
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4Soul Of Appin48/100
Soul Of Appin is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The Brian Meehan yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Bath from a big sample and the 4-year-old is well-related, though the low data confidence means any assessment remains tentative. Jack Callan has an 11% strike rate at the track from 27 rides. Rated 48 on KTB Fit, he is drawn in stall 1 which could be useful in a steadily-run race. By Make Believe, he represents a yard that knows the venue well, yet the complete absence of public form makes him hard to weigh up against experienced rivals. He is likely to be ridden with patience given the general held-up bias in the field.
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5Dialstone44/100
Dialstone has shown steady promise in two starts, finishing runner-up both times including when stepped up to 1m3f last time. He now drops back to 1m2f where he has already placed once, though the small sample means his true level remains unclear. Trainer Ralph Beckett holds a solid 14% strike rate at Bath from 263 runs while jockey Rhys Clutterbuck is operating at a 6% strike rate from 68 rides here.
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6Mathoura43/100
Modest performer who has shown steady placed form this year without progressing. Has twice failed to land the odds at this trip and the latest effort was no better than fair. Trainer and jockey both hold a solid 13% strike rate at Bath but the small-sample going data leaves a question mark on suitability.
KTB verdict
Colonnade is the KTB Selection and sets a fair standard with three placed efforts from as many starts this year. The step up to 1m2f looks a logical move for a horse still learning his trade, and the Crisford yard's 27% strike rate at Bath adds further appeal. He is likely to come from off the pace in a steadily-run race, which should suit his held-up style. No Ordinary Joe brings the most experience but drops back to an untried trip as a veteran, while Indian Mary and the debutant Soul Of Appin both have significant unknowns attached. Dialstone's placed form gives him a squeak on the drop in trip, but the top four in the KTB Fit ratings look sure to dominate the finish.
KTB Selection Colonnade
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a mile and has shown consistent placed form?
Colonnade, with recent form figures of 353 and a KTB Fit of 60.
How many horses in the field are rated as held-up types?
Four of the six runners – Colonnade, No Ordinary Joe, Indian Mary and Mathoura – are described as usually held up.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Bath among those represented?
Simon & Ed Crisford with a 27% strike rate at Bath from 26 runs.
What is the expected pace scenario and its implication for run styles?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, favouring those not too far back.
Which 3-year-old has the highest KTB Fit rating and is the selection?
Colonnade on 60/100.
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