1:39 Perth
This Class 4 EBF Mares' National Hunt Novices' Hurdle at Perth over 2m4f35y on good ground brings together a compact field of five where the KTB Fit scores suggest a clear pecking order. Poetic Twist heads the ratings on 65 while the next three are tightly grouped between 54 and 52, with Biglesisback some way back on 41. The lack of a natural leader points to a tactical, steadily-run race in which being handy on the turn could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner in the field the pace shape is likely to be steady and tactical rather than strongly run. Most of the runners, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late, so the race could develop into a sprint for the line from the home turn. The key question is whether the drop or step in trip for the leading contenders will allow them to show their best when the tempo lifts in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Poetic Twist KTB Selection65/100
Poetic Twist arrives with strong recent form figures of 2-2126 and is a smart performer who looks to hold all the aces. Gordon Elliott and Sean Bowen bring powerful course connections, the trainer operating at a 28% strike rate from 820 runs at Perth and the jockey at 32% from 346 rides. The mare has already shown she acts on good ground with one win and a place from two starts, though she has no previous experience at this course. Dropping back in trip to this untried 2m4f distance poses a fresh question, yet her overall profile and the yard's positive record here make her the one to beat. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, which should suit the expected steadily-run affair.
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2Sky Blue Ribbon54/100
Sky Blue Ribbon has a recent sequence of FF2P-4 that includes a placed effort last year, though he has only been seen once in the last 12 months. This lightly-raced 5-year-old steps up in class and in trip to 2m4f, both of which represent fresh questions, and the small amount of racing means relatively little is known about his true level. Neil Mulholland posts a 20% strike rate from 90 runs at Perth while Jack Tudor is even stronger at 25% from 24 rides here. He has raced once on good ground without placing, so the surface is also something of an unknown. Overall he looks to have plenty to find on these terms.
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3Datstheholyallofit53/100
Datstheholyallofit is a useful performer who comes into this race in solid form having won last time out, with recent figures of 4-1231 underlining his consistency. He has already shown he handles this sort of trip thanks to a placed effort at the distance and has two wins from six runs on good ground along with four placings, confirming his effectiveness under these conditions. Patrick Neville and Brian Hughes both operate at a steady level at Perth, the trainer on 17% from 94 runs and the jockey on 16% from 898 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the tactical nature of the race. His course connections add extra interest despite no previous form at the track.
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4Kingside Lady52/100
Kingside Lady has shown a mixed picture in just three starts, winning twice but with a poor effort in between. The step up from 2m1f to 2m4f today asks a fresh question of her stamina. John McConnell holds a 21% strike rate from 47 runs at Perth while Alex Harvey is operating at 20% from 10 rides here.
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5Biglesisback41/100
Biglesisback is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick having placed in three of his last four completed starts. He showed enough when third here over two and a half miles last time to suggest the step up in trip should suit, though he has yet to win at this distance. The yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Perth is a negative and the jockey's record at the track is only average.
KTB verdict
Poetic Twist stands out at the top of the KTB Fit ratings and looks the clear selection. Her smart level of ability, strong recent record and the excellent course records of both Gordon Elliott and Sean Bowen at Perth give her every chance of taking this steadily-run affair. The drop back in trip is the only slight question mark, yet she still holds the strongest claims. Sky Blue Ribbon and Datstheholyallofit are the main dangers on their respective profiles, while Kingside Lady and Biglesisback look to have more to do on the numbers.
KTB Selection Poetic Twist
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Poetic Twist | 2/1 | William Hill |
| Sky Blue Ribbon | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Datstheholyallofit | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Kingside Lady | 3/1 | William Hill |
| Biglesisback | 3/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 1:39 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in class?
Sky Blue Ribbon is stepping up in class.
How many wins has Poetic Twist recorded on good ground?
Poetic Twist has one win from two starts on good ground.
Which runner has course form at Perth?
Biglesisback is the only runner with course form, having finished third here last time.
What is the trainer strike rate at Perth for Gordon Elliott?
Gordon Elliott has a 28% strike rate at Perth from 820 runs.
Which horses prefer to race held up?
Poetic Twist, Datstheholyallofit, Kingside Lady and Biglesisback are all usually held up.
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