3:18 York
This Class 3 novice over six furlongs at York on good ground features a small but competitive field of five two-year-olds, three of whom arrive with just a single victory between them. Our Son Oscar stands out on the KTB Fit ratings with a score of 57, ahead of Sharadd on 55 and Mehmas Star on 50, suggesting a race where experience and proven ability at the trip will be key. The KTB numbers point to a contest where lightly raced types with solid recent form hold the edge over those with more exposed and modest performances.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with low confidence, indicating Our Son Oscar is likely to get an uncontested lead from his front-running style. With little pressure expected early, he should be able to dictate terms at a comfortable gallop. The key question is whether the closers, primarily the held-up runners Mugheer and Pete's Angel, can bridge the gap on good ground in what could turn into a sprint for the line from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Our Son Oscar KTB Selection57/100
Our Son Oscar has shown fair ability in two quick runs, finishing third then winning over this trip on good ground. He steps up in class now but remains lightly raced and open to further improvement. The Kevin Ryan yard posts an 8% strike rate at York from 1228 runs with an A/E of 0.86, while the 5lb claimer Harry Vigors is yet to score from five rides here with an A/E of 0. Trip and ground look suitable given his 1 win from 1 on good, and his front-running style matches the projected lone-leader pace shape perfectly from draw 5. Overall he has the best KTB Fit rating of 57 and is taken to follow up.
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2Sharadd55/100
Sharadd won his only start over this trip, though with just one run on the clock the form has to be treated with caution. William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at York from 786 runs with an A/E of 1.03, and Tom Marquand adds a 14% strike rate here from 341 rides with an A/E of 1. The pair hold a strong combined record of 21% from 2148 runners with an A/E of 0.91. He is unproven on good ground having had no runs on it so far, which adds an element of risk, yet his KTB Fit score of 55 keeps him firmly in the mix as the most obvious danger.
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3Mehmas Star50/100
Mehmas Star has shown mixed form in two runs so far, finishing second on debut before a lesser effort last time. He drops back to 6f having been placed at the trip without winning, though the small sample means his ideal distance remains open to question. K. R. Burke has a 9% strike rate at York from 676 runs with an A/E of 0.9, while Sam James is 7% from 225 rides here with an A/E of 0.86; their combined record stands at 16% from 818 runners with an A/E of 0.90. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and holds a KTB Fit rating of 50, making him a solid each-way contender at this level.
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4Mugheer46/100
Mugheer showed fair speed when winning a 5f maiden on this ground but could only finish fourth when stepped up into a nursery last time. He is a modest performer on the balance of his two runs with an official rating of 72 and now faces a fresh question in trip while stepping up in class. The Burke yard and Clifford Lee both have solid York records, with the trainer on 9% from 676 runs (A/E 0.9) and the jockey on 10% from 234 rides (A/E 0.92).
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5Pete's Angel42/100
Pete's Angel has been well beaten in both starts so far including two runs at this track where he finished eighth and thirteenth with no win or place. The drop back to 6f is an unknown and the yard's modest 5% strike rate at York from 77 runs offers little encouragement, while Barry McHugh is 4% from 266 rides here. He is dropping in class but holds a KTB Fit rating of just 42 and carries limited appeal on this evidence.
KTB verdict
Our Son Oscar is the KTB Selection. He has already shown fair ability with a win over this trip on good ground, remains lightly raced and open to improvement, and his front-running style looks ideally suited to the projected uncontested lead. Sharadd represents the chief danger on the back of a winning debut for a strong yard and jockey combination, though his lack of experience on good ground is a slight concern. Mehmas Star can fill the minor placing having shown enough in his placed effort, while the other pair look modest on current form.
KTB Selection Our Son Oscar
This is the narrative read of the 3:18 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the York results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the York racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to make the running?
Our Son Oscar, whose front-running style matches the lone-leader pace shape.
What is the ground record for the selection Our Son Oscar?
1 win from 1 on good (1 placed).
How does Sharadd's trainer perform at York?
William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at York from 786 runs with an A/E of 1.03.
Why does Mehmas Star drop back in trip?
He drops back to 6f having been placed at the trip without winning, with his ideal distance still open to question.
What is the York course record for Pete's Angel?
Ran 2 times here: 8th, 13th, no win or place.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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