2:40 York
This Class 2 William Hill Finale Handicap at York over 1m5f188y on good ground features a field of ten three-year-olds where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by a pair rated 62, with the remainder showing progressive but more modest profiles as they step up in class or trip. Overall the KTB numbers point to a competitive renewal in which experience at the track and trip, allied to yard form at York, will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With the vast majority of the field having a held-up run-style, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace rather than an end-to-end gallop. The key question is which horse can produce its effort at the right time in a race where the leaders may be vulnerable to being picked off late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tierra Del Toro KTB Selection62/100
Tierra Del Toro is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year and was not disgraced when fourth over this course and trip last time. He has already placed at today's distance and the yard's solid record at York adds some confidence. The small sample on this ground means suitability remains an unknown. Held up in his races, he usually produces his effort late. Ralph Beckett and Jason Hart have combined for a 4/12 record with a positive A/E of 1.30 at this track, while the trainer's own 13% strike rate at York from 353 runs is respectable. The colt's placed effort on good ground from a single start offers some encouragement.
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2Mythical Bay62/100
Mythical Bay is a useful sort who has won at today's trip and showed strong form earlier this season. He has run poorly on both starts since a break and was well beaten when tried here last time. First-time headgear is now applied in an attempt to spark a revival. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has placed on good ground from one start. Andrew Balding posts a 14% strike rate at York from 524 runs with an A/E of 1.08, while Callum Hutchinson has an 11% strike rate here from a small sample of 18 rides with a strong A/E of 1.44.
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3Glory Road60/100
Glory Road is a useful performer who has already won at this trip. He has solid recent form that includes a win and two places from his last four starts, though he was well held on his only previous run here. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 13% strike rate at York with near-par figures. Stepping up in class, he is usually held up and produces his effort late. Ralph Beckett and Hector Crouch have a 198/968 record together with an A/E of 0.97, and the yard's 13% strike rate at the track from 353 runs is matched by the jockey's 13% from 91 rides.
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4Baltic Fleet57/100
Baltic Fleet is a fair 3-year-old with placed efforts on both starts at this track and on good ground. He has been consistent at a lower level but was pulled up last time and now tries headgear for the first time while stepping back up in trip. The yard and jockey both have solid records here without being prolific. Usually held up with a high degree of confidence in that assessment, he has placed twice from two starts on good ground. Ian Williams has an 8% strike rate at York from 217 runs with an A/E of 1.01, while Jason Watson posts a 9% strike rate from 114 rides with an A/E of 1.02.
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5Harper Violet54/100
Harper Violet is a fair performer who has shown steady improvement in three starts, finishing a solid third on good ground last time. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of her, though the pedigree and progressive profile suggest she could handle it. Burke and Lee both have respectable records at York though neither is setting the track alight. Usually held up, she has a win and a place from two starts on good ground. K R Burke has a 9% strike rate at the track from 676 runs with an A/E of 0.9, while Clifford Lee posts a 10% strike rate from 234 rides with an A/E of 0.92.
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6Itica52/100
Itica is a fair performer who has shown consistent ability at this trip, finishing placed on the only start over it. Recent form of 56172 suggests she is competitive at this level without necessarily being the strongest in the field. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at York from a large sample while the jockey's small-sample record here also reads well. Usually held up with high confidence, she steps up in class and remains unproven on good ground.
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7Bridge of Eagles47/100
Bridge of Eagles is a fair performer who has run creditably without winning on his last three starts. He has already placed at this trip and handles good ground, though his sole York run resulted in a midfield finish. Trainer and jockey both have established records at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he has a win and two places from four starts on good ground.
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8Gaspacho46/100
Gaspacho is a fair performer who showed useful improvement when winning twice on the all-weather at the start of the year before a respectable fourth on turf last time. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Haggas has a solid 18% strike rate at York while Mason's 5% record from 132 rides here is more modest. Usually held up, he has a single start on good ground that yielded no win or place.
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9Prince of Calypso45/100
Prince of Calypso is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 373151 that includes two wins. He steps up in trip today having never tried this far which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at York from 100 runs while the jockey posts a 10% strike rate from 265 rides here. Usually held up on limited evidence, he has a win and two places from two starts on good ground.
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10Bintknight43/100
Bintknight is a fair performer who has won two of her last three starts and shown she handles this ground. She steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of her. Trainer remains winless from eight runners at York while the jockey's modest 6% strike rate here from 100 rides adds little encouragement. Usually held up with high confidence, she has two wins and two places from three starts on good ground.
KTB verdict
Tierra Del Toro stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer with consistent form this year, he was not disgraced when fourth over this course and trip last time and has already placed at the distance, while the yard's solid record at York adds confidence. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his held-up style. Main dangers are Mythical Bay, who has won at the trip and now tries first-time headgear, and Glory Road, who brings solid recent form including a win at this distance despite a poor run here previously.
KTB Selection Tierra Del Toro
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:09 UTC, 9 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tierra Del Toro | 10/3 | BetMGM |
| Mythical Bay | 17/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Baltic Fleet | 18/1 | BetMGM |
| Harper Violet | 13/2 | BetMGM |
| Itica | 9/1 | Star Sports |
| Bridge of Eagles | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Gaspacho | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Prince of Calypso | 15/2 | William Hill |
| Bintknight | 11/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 2:40 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the York results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the York racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course and distance form among the principals?
Tierra Del Toro, who was not disgraced when fourth over this course and trip last time and has already placed at today's distance.
How many of the field are trying first-time headgear?
Two: Mythical Bay and Baltic Fleet.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at York in this race?
William Haggas with an 18% strike rate from 786 runs.
Which horse has the most placed form on good ground?
Baltic Fleet, who has placed on both of two starts on good ground.
What is the combined trainer-jockey strike rate for the selection's connections at York?
Ralph Beckett and Jason Hart have a 4/12 (33%) record with an A/E of 1.30.
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