5:37 Haydock
This Class 3 handicap over 1m6f at Haydock on heavy ground brings together a compact field of six where stamina and an ability to handle the testing conditions will be at a premium. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top pick on 67 while the remainder sit between 56 and 47, underlining a race with one standout on the numbers but plenty of unknowns among the younger horses stepping up in trip. Course form is limited across the board yet several trainers and jockeys bring solid records to the Merseyside track.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with two habitual front-runners present and the pace shape suggesting the race could collapse late. Yaa Min and Gone By are both inclined to make the running or race prominently, setting a searching gallop that could stretch the field on this heavy surface. That in turn should play into the hands of the hold-up performers, with the key question being which of the closers can muster the strongest late rally once the early pace takes its toll.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Yaa Min KTB Selection67/100
Yaa Min is a fair performer who has won both starts over this trip and on heavy ground. He also won on his only previous visit to Haydock, giving him solid course connections in a race where that counts. The trainer has only a small sample here but the jockey's 33% strike rate from six rides is a positive. With an official rating of 84 and recent form figures of 633491, he steps up in class yet looks well placed to cope. His front-running style fits the expected strong pace scenario and the heavy going holds no fears given a perfect record on it. Overall he emerges as the one with the most ticks in the right boxes.
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2Gone By56/100
Gone By is a useful performer who has won two of his last three starts and arrives in solid form after a respectable eighth in a stronger race last time. Drawn on the inside rail and with a yard that operates at a steady 17% strike rate here, he has the right connections for a track that often favours those with course experience. Stepping up to 1m6f for the first time poses a fresh question while the heavy ground remains unknown given his light career total. Rated 92 on official figures and showing recent form of 2-2118, he drops in class which could bring out further improvement. As a front-runner he is sure to be prominent in a race where the pace is set to be strong.
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3High Storm54/100
High Storm is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including two wins and two seconds from his last four starts. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The Burke yard posts a 12% strike-rate at Haydock from a large sample while Loughnane has a 17% record from 35 rides here. Currently rated 86 with form figures of -21541, he is stepping up in class but has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive. His hold-up run style should be favoured if the strong pace materialises as expected, although the heavy ground is unproven.
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4Loki49/100
Loki is a fair sort who has shown consistent placed form and landed a win on his most recent start. He steps up in trip today having already won at 1m6f from a single attempt, though whether he handles the heavy ground remains unknown given only three career runs. The yard posts a 10% strike rate at Haydock while the 3lb claimer has an 11% record here. Rated 80 with form figures of 222-10, he too is stepping up in class. His hold-up style could prove well suited to the likely strong pace, but the lack of experience on testing ground is a clear concern.
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5Urchin49/100
Urchin is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and a second from just four starts. He steps up in trip to 1m6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. The Burke yard has a 12% strike rate at Haydock from a big sample while Clifford Lee is operating at 11%.
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6Phantom Recon47/100
Phantom Recon has shown consistent fair form in three runs this year, finishing fourth each time without looking progressive. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time today having failed to make an impact on his only previous try at the distance, and the first-time headgear is now applied. The yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Haydock while the jockey is operating at 11%.
KTB verdict
Yaa Min stands out as the KTB Selection with a clear edge on the numbers and the most relevant course and ground credentials. His wins over this trip and on heavy going, allied to his sole previous success at Haydock, make him the one to beat in a race where those factors are likely to carry significant weight. Gone By and High Storm represent the main dangers, the former bringing useful form and a prominent run style while the latter could close powerfully if the strong pace takes its toll late on.
KTB Selection Yaa Min
This is the narrative read of the 5:37 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Haydock results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Haydock racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has previous winning form both at this trip and on heavy ground?
Yaa Min has won both starts over this trip and on heavy ground.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are stepping up in class for this contest?
Yaa Min, High Storm and Loki are all stepping up in class.
Who is the only horse in the field with previous course form at Haydock?
Yaa Min won here from one visit to the track.
What new factors are being introduced for Phantom Recon?
Phantom Recon steps up to 1m6f for the first time today having failed to make an impact on his only previous try at the distance, and the first-time headgear is now applied.
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