2:01 Hexham
This Class 4 mares' novices' hurdle at Hexham over 2m4f28y on good ground features a small but competitive field of five. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top three, headed by Tralee Girl on 60 with the selection nod, followed by Myluckymaker at 52 and Biglesisback at 46, while the remaining pair sit in the low forties and look modest on the figures. With a lone-leader pace shape carrying medium confidence, the race is set up for an uncontested front-runner to dictate terms over this trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace map points to one clear front-runner with little pressure expected, creating an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome on this stiff Hexham track. Tralee Girl is the obvious candidate to take that role given her front-running style, while Myluckymaker should track her handily from a prominent position. The key question is whether the leader can maintain her advantage throughout or if one of the hold-up types can bridge the gap late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tralee Girl KTB Selection60/100
Tralee Girl is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins this spring. She steps up in trip for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear, both fresh questions to answer. The Dan Skelton yard posts a 26% strike rate at Hexham from 54 runs with an A/E of 0.77, and Harry Skelton is aboard with a 29% strike rate at the track from 21 rides and an A/E of 0.71. She has a 1-3 record on good ground with three places, and her recent form reads 242-12 from an OR of 114. As a confirmed front-runner she is ideally placed to take advantage of the uncontested lead shape.
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2Myluckymaker52/100
Myluckymaker arrives in solid form with four seconds and a win from his last five starts and has shown he handles this ground. The step up in trip looks a fair question after racing mainly over 2m though he has already placed at this distance. Trainer Daragh Bourke has a modest 7% strike rate at Hexham from 43 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while Brian Hughes takes the ride boasting a 16% strike rate at the venue from 808 rides and an A/E of 0.84. His recent form reads 2-2221 and he should race prominently, sitting close to the uncontested leader.
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3Biglesisback46/100
Biglesisback is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He was second on his only previous run here and has also placed at today's trip and on good ground, suggesting the conditions will suit. The Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Hexham from 53 runs with an A/E of 0.83, and Derek Fox is in the saddle with a 12% strike rate at the track from 336 rides and an A/E of 0.82. His recent form reads 22P3-2 from an OR of 103 and he will be held up, producing his effort late in what looks a stiff task against the pace advantage of those in front.
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4Moira My Love42/100
Moira My Love has shown modest form in four runs and was pulled up on her last start at this track. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of her, while the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Hexham from 81 runs with an A/E of 0.41 adds little confidence; she will be held up.
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5Dartmouth Star41/100
Dartmouth Star has shown little so far, finishing no better than sixth in four starts and looking modest at this level. He has been beaten a long way on both visits to Hexham and has failed to make the frame at today's trip, though the yard holds a solid 17% strike rate here from 236 runs with an A/E of 1.09; he will be held up.
KTB verdict
Tralee Girl stands out as the KTB Selection. She arrives in excellent order after two wins this spring, is a confirmed front-runner who can take full advantage of the uncontested lead shape, and is handled by a yard with a strong record at Hexham. The headgear and longer trip are new questions but the overall profile fits the race well. Myluckymaker is the most obvious danger given his consistent recent form and prominent style, while Biglesisback brings placed course form and trip suitability though his hold-up run-style may leave him with too much to do.
KTB Selection Tralee Girl
This is the narrative read of the 2:01 Hexham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hexham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hexham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hexham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Tralee Girl, whose front-running style matches the lone-leader pace shape.
How many wins has Tralee Girl recorded this spring?
Two, as shown in her recent form of 242-12.
What is the Hexham strike rate for Daragh Bourke?
7% from 43 runs with an A/E of 0.93.
Has Biglesisback placed at Hexham before?
Yes, he was second on his only previous run here.
What is the trainer strike rate at Hexham for Ian Duncan?
4% from 81 runs with an A/E of 0.41.
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