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Trainer profile

Ian Duncan

306 runners in the last 5 seasons · 31 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
20–306
Wins / Runs
6.5%
Strike rate
n=306
66 (22%)
Placed
0.92
Fair A/E
n=306 · 0.79 incl. margin
−120.00
£1 level stake
n=306 at SP · −39.2%
£214k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
7.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.92).

Deterministic profile computed from 306 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Alan Doyle: 6.1% from 66
The read

It is weakest at Perth (0% over 36 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.51 and −83.25 to a £1 stake over 115 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Alan Doyle rides 22% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.1%, A/E 0.67). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (11.8%, n=34). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0% over 39 runners, 6.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.40 across 68 runners (1.5% strike, −27.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Jessiemac (IRE) — 5 wins from 41 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6%−0.5
n=67 · A/E 1.32 · £1 −14.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.5
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.1%+0.6
n=14 · A/E 1.30 · £1 +27.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
37.5%
n=8 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.3%−2.2
n=115 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −83.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In NH Flat races 0% vs 6.5% · n=39
At Perth 0% vs 6.5% · n=36
Over 1m5f – 2m 1.5% vs 6.5% · n=68
Off a 8-14-day break 11.8% vs 6.5% · n=34
With Callum Bewley 10.9% vs 6.5% · n=55
With Conor O'Farrell 2.2% vs 6.5% · n=46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 213 16 7.5% −51.25
Chase 54 4 7.4% −29.75
NH Flat 39 0 0% −39.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 121 7 5.8% −38.00
Good to Soft 73 7 9.6% −8.25
Good 63 3 4.8% −36.50
Heavy 46 3 6.5% −34.25
Good to Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ayr 123 8 6.5% −11.75
Hexham 37 2 5.4% −23.00
Perth 36 0 0% −36.00
Kelso 28 2 7.1% −16.00
Newcastle 23 3 13% −3.00
Carlisle 22 2 9.1% −11.75
Sedgefield 15 0 0% −15.00
Wetherby 5 1 20% +0.00
Cartmel 5 1 20% +4.00
Catterick 4 1 25% +0.50
Musselburgh 4 0 0% −4.00
Doncaster 3 0 0% −3.00
Haydock 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 146 11 7.5% −13.50
Class 4 143 8 5.6% −98.50
Class 3 11 1 9.1% −2.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 3 30% 1.24 +0.00
2nd–3rd fav 51 5 9.8% 0.57 −27.50
4th–6th fav 113 10 8.8% 1.29 −30.50
7th+ in betting 132 2 1.5% 0.69 −62.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
81.6% completed · 267 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 54 83.3% 3 2 4 0 0
Hurdle 213 81.2% 4 4 32 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Celestial Fashion (GB) 28 5 11 24 Apr 26
Maura Jeanne (GB) 25 2 6 13 May 26
Cave Hill (GB) 25 2 3 2 May 26
Tread Softly Now (GB) 22 4 9 23 May 26
Adveram (GB) 22 2 8 2 May 26
The Jeweller's Pet (IRE) 19 2 6 20 Oct 26
Toombridge (GB) 18 0 1 7 Jun 25
Highland Fashion (GB) 14 1 6 24 Apr 26
Jessiemac (IRE) 14 1 4 21 Apr 23
Teddy Mac (GB) 13 0 0 23 Apr 25
Bannside (IRE) 12 0 0 26 Jan 25
Bolt Man (GB) 10 0 1 9 Jun 24
All 31 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 31 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 28 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
611337000·1667
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAlan Doyle
22% of all rides
6.1% SR · A/E 0.67
RiderRWSR£1
Alan Doyle 66 4 6.1% −34.25
Callum Bewley 55 6 10.9% −21.25
Conor O'Farrell 46 1 2.2% −17.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
56
Archived wins
£625k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Milborough (IRE) — Betfred Eider (Handicap Chase) Newcastle · Feb 2015 · Class 2
£43,792
Another Rum (IRE) — National Hunt Amateurs' Novices' Chase Cheltenham · Mar 2005 · Class 2
£29,000
Finaghy Ayr (IRE) — Northern Lights Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase Carlisle · Dec 2017 · Class 2
£15,475
Notable horses
Jessiemac (IRE) Celestial Fashion (GB) Lochnell (IRE) Finaghy Ayr (IRE) Golden Sparkle (IRE) Tread Softly Now (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Champs Elysees (GB) 13.9% · 5–36
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,119 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Telescope (IRE) 13.9% · 5–36
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,891 runs since 2008 (295 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 104. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.3% from 279.
Libertarian (GB) 11.1% · 3–27
Progeny have won 7.6% of 556 runs since 2008 (74 horses).
Sulamani (IRE) 8% · 2–25
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,243 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Universal (IRE) 8% · 2–25
Progeny have won 11% of 973 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.3% from 137. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8% from 188.
Jack Hobbs (GB) 0% · 0–23
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,064 runs since 2008 (201 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 17.6% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 861 · newest first

The latest 50 of 861 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 February 2005 to 20 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
20 Oct 26 Hexham The Jeweller's Pet (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 8th 20/1
20 Oct 26 Hexham Moira My Love (GB)J: Callum Bewley Download The At The Races App Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 4th 100/1
07 Jun 26 Perth Jack Dempsey (GB)J: Callum Bewley Sun Racing The Home Of Racing Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 33/1
23 May 26 Cartmel Tread Softly Now (GB)J: Ryan Mania PSR Marquees Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 25.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 8/1
13 May 26 Perth Jack Dempsey (GB)J: Charlie Maggs Murrayshall Meetings And Events Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 18/1
13 May 26 Perth Maura Jeanne (GB)J: Callum Bewley Murrayshall Golf Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 20/1
06 May 26 Kelso Pony Express (GB)J: William Maggs Racing TV Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 28/1
02 May 26 Hexham Adveram (GB)J: Ryan Mania Winchcombe Working Mens FC Tour 2026 Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 15 ran 11th 40/1
02 May 26 Hexham Cave Hill (GB)J: Sean Quinlan Elizabeth Elliott Birthday Celebration Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 4th 12/1
24 Apr 26 Perth The Coffey Boy (IRE)J: Callum Bewley One Place. Every Race. Racing TV Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 7th 11/1
24 Apr 26 Perth Celestial Fashion (GB)J: Callum Bewley Join Racing TV Now Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 5 ran 5th 18/1
24 Apr 26 Perth Highland Fashion (GB)J: Callum Bewley Perth Racecourse Racing & Events Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 26.5f · Good · 12 ran 5th 14/1
24 Apr 26 Perth Jack Dempsey (GB)J: Callum Bewley GS Group Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 100/1
22 Apr 26 Perth Maura Jeanne (GB)J: Mr S Connor Equine Products Best Turned Out Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 6th 5/1
22 Apr 26 Perth Coylton King (GB)J: Mr S Connor Equine Products Best Turned Out Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 9th 13/2
22 Apr 26 Perth Tread Softly Now (GB)J: Callum Bewley Scone Palace Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 10/1
17 Apr 26 Ayr Culzean (GB)J: Callum Bewley Abbott Risk Consulting Ltd Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 200/1
04 Apr 26 Carlisle Adveram (GB)J: Callum Bewley Bell & Plate 24th June Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25f · Good To Soft · 10 ran PU 20/1
04 Apr 26 Carlisle Maura Jeanne (GB)J: Sean Quinlan Bell & Plate 24th June Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 9/1
31 Mar 26 Newcastle Cave Hill (GB)J: Callum Bewley Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ian Duncan's strike rate?
Ian Duncan has won 20 of 306 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ian Duncan do best at?
Ayr by strike rate: 8 wins from 123 runners (6.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Ian Duncan?
Alan Doyle, with 66 runners since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (6.1%).
Is Ian Duncan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Ian Duncan's Fair A/E?
0.92, from 306 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).