Counterfactual (IRE)
Counterfactual (IRE) is yet to win from 12 starts. Last raced off 49, 8lb below the career-high mark.
- 0–12Wins / Runs
- 0%Strike rate
- 0 (0%)Placed
- −12.00£1 level staken=12 at SP
- 0.00Fair A/E n=11 · 0.00 incl. margin
- 57Highest OR
- 43dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
No KTB Speed figures for this horse. The engine scores GB and Irish racing from Oct 2016; runs elsewhere, or earlier, have no figure.
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 0 figures from 0 runs · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9.1% of 2,326 runs since Jan 2008 (171 horses).
Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 136.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 32 | 1 | 3.1% | −6 | — |
| Good to Firm | 398 | 38 | 9.5% | +0.4 | 0 from 5 |
| Good | 576 | 55 | 9.5% | +0.4 | 0 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 288 | 25 | 8.7% | −0.4 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 372 | 25 | 6.7% | −2.4 | — |
| Heavy | 145 | 13 | 9% | −0.1 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 515 | 54 | 10.5% | +1.4 | 0 from 3 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 87 | 7 | 8% | −1.1 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 371 | 28 | 7.5% | −1.6 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 297 | 23 | 7.7% | −1.4 | 0 from 9 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 533 | 56 | 10.5% | +1.4 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 534 | 64 | 12% | +2.9 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 331 | 23 | 6.9% | −2.2 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 136 | 7 | 5.1% | −4 | — |
| Over 3m | 37 | 3 | 8.1% | −1 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 27 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
3 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Ashes (IRE) (6 wins).
The wins came over 5f–7f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Royal Storm (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashes (IRE) | 56 | 6 | 5f | Class 5 |
| Royal Storm (IRE) | 32 | 2 | 7f | Class 4 |
| Tokyo Jo (IRE) | 23 | 1 | 6f | Class 6 |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Good | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 6 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Class 5 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Class 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thirsk | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ayr | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Beverley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ripon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 9 | 0 | 0% | −9.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Lawson | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Derek McGaffin | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Royston Ffrench | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Pat Cosgrave | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chris Catlin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| 2006 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 · 8 runs | |||||||||
| 18 Sep 07+97d | Thirsk | Whernside Handicap | 7/18 | ½ | 8-13 | 49 | 49C | Royston Ffrench | 14/1 |
| 13 Jun 07+13d | Nottingham | Ladies Night On 7th July Handicap | 10/14 | 3 | 8-7 | 52 | 25C | Mark Lawson | 12/1 |
| 31 May 07+9d | Ayr | Griffin Webster Handicap | 8/12 | hd | 8-13 | 54 | 46C | Pat Cosgrave | 10/1 |
| 22 May 07+38d | Beverley | Turf TV Betting Shop Service Handicap | 7/16 | shd | 8-9 | 54 | 53C | Mark Lawson | 14/1 |
| 14 Apr 07+23d | Newcastle | St James Security Maiden Stakes | 5/14 | ¾ | 9-9 | 50 | 71C | Mark Lawson | 25/1 |
| 22 Mar 07+73d | Southwell (AW) | pontins.com Handicap | 5/11 | 5 | 8-2 | 51 | 49C | Chris Catlin | 16/1 |
| 08 Jan 07+7d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Go Pontin's Handicap | 9/13 | 3 | 8-8 | 55 | 42C | Mark Lawson | 66/1 |
| 01 Jan 07+140d | Southwell (AW) | Pontin's Book Early Handicap | 7/12 | 3½ | 8-9 | 55 | 38C | Mark Lawson | 20/1 |
| 2006 · 4 runs | |||||||||
| 14 Aug 06+10d | Thirsk | Fairfax Arms Gilling East Handicap | 8/10 | 3 | 8-5 | 57 | 34C | Derek McGaffin | 22/1 |
| 04 Aug 06+45d | Thirsk | Scarborough Castle Maiden Stakes | 7/10 | 3½ | 9-3 | 57 | 27C | Derek McGaffin | 66/1 |
| 20 Jun 06+14d | Thirsk | Go Racing In Yorkshire Maiden Stakes | 6/12 | nk | 9-3 | — | 68C | Derek McGaffin | 14/1 |
| 06 Jun 06 | Ripon | Grantley Maiden Stakes | 5/14 | 1 | 9-3 | — | 71C | Derek McGaffin | 66/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Counterfactual won?
- Counterfactual (IRE) has yet to win, from 12 archived starts between 2006 and 2007.
- Who trained Counterfactual?
- Counterfactual (IRE) was trained by Bryan Smart on the most recent run on record, at Thirsk on 18 September 2007.
- Who is Counterfactual's sire?
- Counterfactual (IRE) is by Key Of Luck (USA) out of Wakayi (GB), whose sire is Persian Bold.
- What is Counterfactual's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 49, from the run on 18 September 2007. The highest on record is 57.
- What is Counterfactual's sire's record?
- Key Of Luck (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.1% of 2,326 runs since Jan 2008 (171 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 136.
- Who are Counterfactual's siblings?
- Out of Wakayi (GB), Counterfactual (IRE) has 3 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Ashes (IRE) (6). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Royal Storm (IRE)). The wins came over 5f–7f. As at Oct 2026.