Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.6% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−3.6
n=43 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −43.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−3.6
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−3.6
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +1.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−3.6
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On first rides for the horse0% vs 3.6% · n=43
In Flat races3.6% vs 3.6% · n=83 · A/E 0.65
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)2000%−20.00
Good1915.3%−16.00
Good to Firm1800%−18.00
Good to Soft1417.1%−11.00
Soft10110%−4.50
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Yarmouth2528%−16.50
Nottingham1000%−10.00
Chelmsford City (AW)700%−7.00
Wolverhampton (AW)700%−7.00
Southwell (AW)500%−5.00
York5120%−2.00
Catterick300%−3.00
Chester300%−3.00
Brighton200%−2.00
Salisbury200%−2.00
Doncaster200%−2.00
Newmarket200%−2.00
Beverley100%−1.00
Thirsk100%−1.00
Sandown100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 64824.2%−39.50
Class 51500%−15.00
Class 2900%−9.00
Class 49111.1%−6.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5240%1.48+1.00
2nd–3rd fav3133.3%2.61+2.50
4th–6th fav1800%0.00−18.00
7th+ in betting5700%0.00−57.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f3013.3%−24.50
Under 6f1815.6%−15.00
1m2f – 1m4f1600%−16.00
1m – 1m1f1200%−12.00
1m5f – 2m5120%−2.00
2m1f – 2m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223013.3%−27.00
20234224.8%−33.50
20241100%−11.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6734.5%−55.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3837.9%−26.50
11-13 runners2300%−23.00
5-7 runners1200%−12.00
14-16 runners700%−7.00
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 44 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
···006100170··
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
402
Archived wins
11
Pattern / graded wins
£4.74m
Prize money
2007
Best season · 63 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Lady Rangali (IRE) — Watership Down Stud Sales Race (Fillies) Ascot · Sep 2007 · Class 2
£134,354
Jukebox Jury (IRE) — Lucien Barriere Grand Prix de Deauville Deauville (FR) · Aug 2009 · Group 2
£110,680
Sea Lord (IRE) — Totesport Mile (Heritage Handicap) (Formerly Known As The Golden Mile) Goodwood · Jul 2010 · Class 2
Progeny have won 10.2% of 2,475 runs since 2019 (186 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.7% from 162. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 15.8% from 158.
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,173 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 855.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 5,558 · newest first
The latest 50 of 5,558 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 29 March 2005 to 20 June 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Royston Ffrench's strike rate?
Royston Ffrench has won 3 of 83 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 3.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Royston Ffrench's Fair A/E?
0.65, from 83 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Royston Ffrench·SR 3.6%·A/E 0.65
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