What is Bryan Smart's strike rate?

Bryan Smart has won 90 of 902 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Bryan Smart do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 6 wins from 34 runners (17.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Bryan Smart?

Paul Mulrennan, with 173 runners since 2022 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (13.3%).

Is Bryan Smart in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Bryan Smart's Fair A/E?

0.91, from 899 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Bryan Smart

902 runners in the last 5 seasons · 84 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

90–902

Wins / Runs

10%

Strike rate

n=902

299 (33%)

Placed

0.91

Fair A/E

n=899 · 0.77 incl. margin

−227.17

£1 level stake

n=902 at SP · −25.2%

£1.01m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 180 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.91).

Deterministic profile computed from 902 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Apr 31.2% when favourite Paul Mulrennan: 13.3% from 173 Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (17.6%, n=34), clear of the yard's 10% baseline. It is weakest at York (0% over 33 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 2% (n=49, Fair A/E 0.32). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 7.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −53.19 to a £1 stake over 129 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Paul Mulrennan rides 19% of the entries and edges the yard's average (13.3% vs 10%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 3.4% over 58 runners, 6.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good to Firm going: Fair A/E 0.53 across 147 runners (4.8% strike, −83.42 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 30 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at York (Aug 2018, £198,485). The stable star of the record: Tangerine Trees (GB) — 14 wins from 64 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.8%−2.2

n=129 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −53.19

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.5%+2.5

n=8 · A/E 1.71 · £1 +11.00

Debutants · first career start

2%−8.0

n=49 · A/E 0.32 · £1 −45.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

20%+10.0

n=15 · A/E 2.06 · £1 +85.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−10.0

n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

When favourite

31.2%

n=77 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −4.91

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.8%−1.2

n=285 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −74.09

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.0

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At York 0% vs 10% · n=33

At Beverley 1.6% vs 10% · n=61

With debutants 2% vs 10% · n=49

At Musselburgh 17.6% vs 10% · n=34

Over 1m – 1m1f 3.4% vs 10% · n=58

On Good to Firm going 4.8% vs 10% · n=147

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 353 43 12.2% −73.44

Good 208 18 8.7% −100.69

Good to Firm 147 7 4.8% −83.42

Good to Soft 92 10 10.9% −20.87

Soft 82 9 11% +34.87

Heavy 20 3 15% +16.38

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 257 33 12.8% −23.68

Southwell (AW) 91 9 9.9% −48.26

Beverley 61 1 1.6% −59.17

Redcar 58 3 5.2% −43.62

Thirsk 58 7 12.1% +73.00

Carlisle 53 5 9.4% −12.25

Ripon 49 2 4.1% −38.00

Catterick 48 7 14.6% −10.00

Doncaster 47 6 12.8% +2.33

Musselburgh 34 6 17.6% −11.77

York 33 0 0% −33.00

Nottingham 24 2 8.3% −14.00

Hamilton 24 1 4.2% −21.75

Haydock 20 1 5% −5.00

Pontefract 14 2 14.3% −6.38

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 332 37 11.1% −110.25

Class 6 286 30 10.5% +10.29

Class 4 195 18 9.2% −86.59

Class 3 46 3 6.5% −26.62

Class 2 40 2 5% −11.00

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 105 29 27.6% 1.08 −9.58

2nd–3rd fav 218 32 14.7% 0.89 −52.59

4th–6th fav 298 20 6.7% 0.79 −118.00

7th+ in betting 281 9 3.2% 0.84 −47.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Castan (GB) 59 9 25 16 Oct 26

Secret Guest (GB) 49 5 18 12 Oct 26

Blazing Son (GB) 45 8 22 2 Oct 26

High Opinion (GB) 40 5 15 11 Jun 26

Arlington (GB) 36 5 14 17 Jun 26

Wichahpi (GB) 30 4 14 16 Dec 25

Beale Street (GB) 29 6 13 26 Jun 26

Princess Karine (GB) 27 4 12 25 Jan 25

Jamaican Storm (GB) 24 2 10 2 Oct 26

Operation Gimcrack (IRE) 24 3 8 19 Sep 26

Station X (GB) 24 6 14 19 Sep 26

Dc Cogent (GB) 23 1 10 1 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 84 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 56 had their first archived run for this yard.

14 have since run for another yard, most often for Geoff Oldroyd (4) and Michael Herrington (2); 46 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

12161312109761311812

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderPaul Mulrennan

19% of all rides
13.3% SR · A/E 0.97

RiderRWSR£1

Paul Mulrennan 173 23 13.3% −66.07

Andrew Breslin 167 13 7.8% −27.25

Harrison Shaw 148 12 8.1% −45.75

Graham Lee 102 9 8.8% +39.58

David Nolan 51 8 15.7% −19.84

Gianluca Sanna 47 2 4.3% −34.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

694

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.37m

Prize money

2011

Best season · 70 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Alpha Delphini (GB) — Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) York · Aug 2018 · Group 1

£198,485

Tangerine Trees (GB) — Qatar Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp (2yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2011 · Group 1

£147,776

Misu Bond (IRE) — totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) Redcar · Oct 2005 · Listed

£111,360

Notable horses

Tangerine Trees (GB) Smalljohn (GB) Castan (GB) Dubai Hills (GB) Mythmaker (GB) Blazing Son (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Washington Dc (IRE) 7.7% · 6–78

Progeny have won 9.9% of 849 runs since 2008 (70 horses). Weakest on Good going: 6.8% from 191.

Havana Grey (GB) 9.6% · 7–73

Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,533 runs since 2008 (415 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.3% from 408.

Charming Thought (GB) 15.2% · 10–66

Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,001 runs since 2008 (75 horses).

Mayson (GB) 17.9% · 10–56

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,363 runs since 2008 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 1,726. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Hellvelyn (GB) 10.6% · 5–47

Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,952 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.7% from 256.

Aclaim (IRE) 18.2% · 8–44

Progeny have won 10% of 2,522 runs since 2008 (200 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.8% from 385.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,508 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,508 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Espresso Breeze (GB)J: Oisin McSweeney Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 150/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar March Ahead (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 14th 40/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Castan (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 11/2

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Reenie's Dream (GB)J: Oisin Orr Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 9/2

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Secret Guest (GB)J: Oisin Orr Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 11/2

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Blazing Son (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Pipes Vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 7/2

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Jamaican Storm (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan H. Malone Mechanical & Electrical Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 6/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Surprised (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Armah Switchgear Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 25/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Espresso Breeze (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Insulation Contractors Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 80/1

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Dc Cogent (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 15/8F

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) March Ahead (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 20/1

28 Sep 26 Hamilton Cyberspace (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Moira Stein Memorial Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Soft · 6 ran 2nd 7/4

26 Sep 26 Ripon Sole Spirit (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Michael Raby Memorial Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 7th 12/1

25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Reenie's Dream (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Northumbrian Wateraid Sprint Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 9/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Operation Gimcrack (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 5/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Castan (GB)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 12/1

19 Sep 26 Ayr Station X (GB)J: Oisin Orr Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap StakesClass 2 · 6f · Heavy · 23 ran 1st 18/1

16 Sep 26 Beverley Espresso Breeze (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 7th 28/1

15 Sep 26 Redcar Dc Cogent (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 14/1

15 Sep 26 Redcar Cyberspace (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan racingtv.com Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Bryan Smart's strike rate?: Bryan Smart has won 90 of 902 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Bryan Smart do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 6 wins from 34 runners (17.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Bryan Smart?: Paul Mulrennan, with 173 runners since 2022 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (13.3%).
Is Bryan Smart in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Bryan Smart's Fair A/E?: 0.91, from 899 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.