Mark Lawson
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 50 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.41). When claiming the record reads 12% (165 rides). Rode mostly for Mel Brittain — 52% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Wolverhampton (AW) (22.6%, n=31), clear of the rider's 10.5% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 6.5% (n=31, Fair A/E 1.45). Claiming rides are the standout value angle: 12.1% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.53 and +61.31 to a £1 stake over 165 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Mel Brittain supplied 52% of the rides and edges the rider's average (15.2% vs 10.5%, A/E 1.59) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well at trips under 6f (19.5%, n=41) and off a 0-7-day break (20%, n=30). The market has also underrated the rider on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 1.57 across 61 rides (16.4% strike, +11.93 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly on Good to Firm going — 4.2% over 48 rides, 6.3pts below the baseline.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 645 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 645 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 12 October 2011.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Mark Lawson's strike rate?
- Mark Lawson has won 20 of 191 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Mark Lawson do best at?
- Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 31 rides (22.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Mark Lawson ride most for?
- Mel Brittain, with 99 rides since 2008 — 52% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (15.2%).
- What is Mark Lawson's Fair A/E?
- 1.41, from 189 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.