Horse profile
Earnest Belief (IRE)
by Mastercraftsman (IRE) out of Promise Me (IRE) (Montjeu)
12 runs · 11 courses · from May 2025
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
Last run 9 Sep 2026 · 4th of 5
Last raced off OR 103
KTB Profile
Earnest Belief (IRE) is yet to win from 12 starts, though has placed 6 times. Best effort: 2nd of 7 at Goodwood (Jun 2025). Last raced off a career-high mark of 103.
Based on 12 archived runs · run-style from 12 commented runs since May 2025 · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance
OR at career high
- 0–12Wins / Runs
- 0%Strike rate
- 6 (50%)Placed
- −12.00£1 level staken=12 at SP
- 0.00Fair A/E n=12 · 0.00 incl. margin
- 103Highest OR
- 45dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating103At career-high mark
103
73–103
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 106
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 5 | 106A | 82 | 5 runs · 106 / 82 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 4 | 106A | 74 | 4 runs · 106 / 74 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 2 | 115A | 103.5 | 2 runs · 115 / 103.5 |
| Good | 2 | 104B | 99.5 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 99B | 95.5 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 4 | 115A | 97 | 2 runs · 115 / 103.5 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2 | 104B | 98 | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 12 figures from 12 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 12 analysed runs since May 2025
- Prominent 6 (50%) · 0 wins
- Mid-division 4 (33%) · 0 wins
- Held up 1 (8%) · 0 wins
- Led 1 (8%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 10.6% of 11,636 runs since Apr 2013 (842 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 23 | 2 | 8.7% | −1.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 1,345 | 156 | 11.6% | +1 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 2,974 | 345 | 11.6% | +1 | 0 from 7 |
| Good to Soft | 1,532 | 166 | 10.8% | +0.2 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 1,969 | 182 | 9.2% | −1.4 | — |
| Heavy | 660 | 70 | 10.6% | 0 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 3,132 | 310 | 9.9% | −0.7 | 0 from 2 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 54 | 5 | 9.3% | −1.3 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 1,384 | 119 | 8.6% | −2 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2,334 | 217 | 9.3% | −1.3 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 3,816 | 438 | 11.5% | +0.9 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2,587 | 285 | 11% | +0.4 | 0 from 8 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1,087 | 114 | 10.5% | −0.1 | 0 from 1 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 326 | 44 | 13.5% | +2.9 | 0 from 1 |
| Over 3m | 48 | 9 | 18.8% | +8.2 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Apr 2013 · as at 31 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Promise Me (IRE) (Montjeu)
7 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Coltrane (IRE) (10 wins).
The wins came over 1m–2m4f; the highest grade won is Group 2 (Coltrane (IRE)).
Family form: Fifth Amendment (IRE) finished 3rd of 9 at Kempton (AW), 28 Oct 2026.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coltrane (IRE) | 34 | 10 | 1m4f–2m4f | Group 2 |
| Warda Jamila (IRE) | 18 | 3 | 1m–1m2f | Class 3 |
| Zonisty (IRE) | 4 | 2 | 2m | Class 5 |
| Chablis Rock (IRE) | 7 | 1 | 1m4f | — |
| Michael's Pledge (IRE) | 14 | 0 | — | — |
| Fifth Amendment (IRE) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
| Valegro (IRE) | 4 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Sedgefield | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Bangor-on-Dee | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Hexham | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Carlisle | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sandown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Goodwood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Haydock | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Salisbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Gillard | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Robert Havlin | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| William Maggs | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Luke Catton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tyler Heard | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Benoit De La Sayette | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tongue tie + cheekpieces | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| None | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Blinkers | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| 2025 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Flat | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 6 runs | ||||||||||
| 09 Sep 26+49d | Sedgefield | Racing Again 14th September Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race) Settled at the back early keeping a firm grip on the bridle - shaken up to close in before 3 out - still involved 2 out - faded quickly and dropped fourth close to the line | 4/5 | nk | 11-1 | 103 | 89C | 100B | Theo Gillard | 9/2 |
| 22 Jul 26+21d | Worcester | Colin Jones Memorial Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Div II) up with the pace - moved up into second before 3 out - challenged the front-runner 2 out - pushed along in the run-in - hit the front close home before being overtaken in the closing strides | 3/9 | hd | 11-0 | 102 | 66A | 122A | Theo Gillard | 7/2 |
| 01 Jul 26+39d | Worcester | Jane Newman Financial Planning Ltd Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2) Settled third early - shared front spot 3 out then went clear 2 out - drifted off a true line approaching last - edged right and brushed the eventual winner when overtaken with 110yds left - lost placings late to finish third | 3/11 | 1¼ | 11-0 | 102 | 106A | 121A | Theo Gillard | 16/1 |
| 23 May 26+21d | Bangor-on-Dee | Bangor-On-Dee Ladies Day Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Settled in the pack - pushed along and made progress before 2 out - unable to quicken after the last - finished third | 3/8 | 3½ | 10-9 | — | 53A | 106A | William Maggs | 7/1 |
| 02 May 26+41d | Hexham | Bobby Roberts Memorial Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2) Went straight to front - lost position after ragged jump 2 out - dropped away before final fence - well held in 4th | 4/8 | 31 | 10-12 | — | 82C | 82C | Theo Gillard | 3/1 |
| 22 Mar 26+122d | Carlisle | Pauline Phizacklea Memorial Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Settled in the pack early - urged forward to move into third heading to 2 out - pressed for effort and unable to quicken before the last - finished third | 3/9 | 1¼ | 10-9 | — | 125A | 112A | Theo Gillard | 14/1 |
| 2025 · 6 runs | ||||||||||
| 20 Nov 25+12d | Southwell (AW) | Join The Midnite Movement Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Held third early - driven on with 4f left - well placed with 2f to go - lost position in final furlong and dropped away close home | 4/10 | 1½ | 8-10 | 73 | 115A | 69A | Luke Catton | 9/1 |
| 08 Nov 25+101d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Join The Midnite Movement Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Sat behind the pace - third at halfway before slipping to fifth 3f out - had little left and faded away to finish 8th | 8/10 | 1¾ | 9-2 | 77 | 92A | 65A | Tyler Heard | 5/2F |
| 30 Jul 25+40d | Sandown | Chasemore Farm Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Pushed along early - settled behind the pace - dropped back 7f out and squeezed for space when fading over 2f out - kept trying from the final furlong to finish fourth | 4/6 | 3¾ | 9-7 | 78 | 95B | 73B | Robert Havlin | 11/1 |
| 20 Jun 25+21d | Goodwood | Goodwood Horseracing Club Membership Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) Held up mid-pack - eased over to the inside and driven with two furlongs left - rallied approaching the last furlong - ran on but never threatened the leader | 2/7 | 7 | 9-1 | — | 99B | 63B | Robert Havlin | 7/2 |
| 30 May 25+26d | Haydock | Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) Sat close to pace early - hit front approaching final 3f - driven with 2f left - overtaken with a furlong to go - dropped away in the closing stages to finish third | 3/10 | 1½ | 8-13 | — | 104B | 79A | Robert Havlin | 6/1 |
| 04 May 25 | Salisbury | Fitzdares World Of Sport Podcast British EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) Settled in the pack - driven approaching 3f out - unable to find further gains - finished fourth | 4/6 | 3 | 9-4 | — | 92A | 66B | Benoit De La Sayette | 8/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Earnest Belief won?
- Earnest Belief (IRE) has yet to win, from 12 archived starts between 2025 and 2026. Placed 6 times in total (50% of starts).
- Who trains Earnest Belief?
- Earnest Belief (IRE) is trained by Donald McCain, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 9 September 2026.
- Who is Earnest Belief's sire?
- Earnest Belief (IRE) is by Mastercraftsman (IRE) out of Promise Me (IRE), whose sire is Montjeu.
- What is Earnest Belief's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 103, from the run on 9 September 2026. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Earnest Belief's sire's record?
- Mastercraftsman (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.6% of 11,636 runs since Apr 2013 (842 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Earnest Belief's siblings?
- Out of Promise Me (IRE), Earnest Belief (IRE) has 7 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Coltrane (IRE) (10). Highest grade won: Group 2 (Coltrane (IRE)). The wins came over 1m–2m4f. As at Nov 2026.