What is Luke Catton's strike rate?

Luke Catton has won 62 of 619 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Luke Catton do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 6 wins from 34 rides (17.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Luke Catton ride most for?

Stuart Williams, with 161 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (9.9%).

Is Luke Catton in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Luke Catton's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 618 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Luke Catton

619 rides in the last 5 seasons · 330 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 9 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2022

62–619

Wins / Runs

10%

Strike rate

n=619

166 (27%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=618 · 0.88 incl. margin

−164.49

£1 level stake

n=619 at SP · −26.6%

£622k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 120 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (77 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 619 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb Fresh horses: 10.1% 31% when favourite Stuart Williams: 9.9% from 161 First rides: 10.2% LTO winners: 14.3% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Brighton (17.6%, n=34), clear of the rider's 10% baseline. It is weakest at Southwell (AW) (2.4% over 41 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14.3% (n=77, Fair A/E 0.77), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 2.2% (n=46, Fair A/E 0.39). Stuart Williams supplies 26% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.9%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (21.1%, n=38) and on Good to Firm going (16.2%, n=117). Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.2%+0.2

n=323 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −111.28

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14.3%+4.3

n=77 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −29.46

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.1%+0.1

n=89 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +11.59

When favourite

31%

n=42 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −13.66

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.8%−0.2

n=528 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −137.62

Big fields · 14+ runners

2.2%−7.8

n=46 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −37.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.0

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With John & Thady Gosden 22.2% vs 10% · n=45

Off a 0-7-day break 21.1% vs 10% · n=38

On Good to Firm going 16.2% vs 10% · n=117

At Southwell (AW) 2.4% vs 10% · n=41

At Brighton 17.6% vs 10% · n=34

At Yarmouth 2.9% vs 10% · n=35

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 300 27 9% −81.34

Good to Firm 117 19 16.2% +29.21

Good 107 9 8.4% −70.36

Good to Soft 47 4 8.5% −25.00

Soft 35 2 5.7% −10.50

Heavy 9 1 11.1% −2.50

Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 75 5 6.7% +19.33

Chelmsford City (AW) 66 4 6.1% −39.88

Lingfield (AW) 54 6 11.1% −21.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 53 6 11.3% −20.00

Southwell (AW) 41 1 2.4% −32.00

Yarmouth 35 1 2.9% −30.00

Brighton 34 6 17.6% +9.20

Epsom 25 2 8% −12.75

Windsor 24 3 12.5% +8.50

Bath 19 2 10.5% −9.75

Leicester 19 2 10.5% −2.50

Lingfield 18 4 22.2% −0.37

Nottingham 17 1 5.9% −15.75

Newmarket 15 1 6.7% −8.00

Newbury 14 2 14.3% +14.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 228 21 9.2% −83.66

Class 5 214 29 13.6% +11.21

Class 4 129 9 7% −59.79

Class 3 28 1 3.6% −26.75

Class 2 18 2 11.1% −3.50

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 53 15 28.3% 0.93 −16.78

2nd–3rd fav 108 20 18.5% 1.06 −8.21

4th–6th fav 224 21 9.4% 1.15 −0.50

7th+ in betting 234 6 2.6% 0.80 −139.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Got No Dollars (IRE) 20 2 6 1 Jul 24

Buy The Dip (GB) 13 3 5 9 Jul 26

Mister X (IRE) 13 3 4 11 Jul 23

Irezumi (GB) 12 2 6 15 Sep 25

Hodler (GER) 12 1 4 2 Jul 25

Secret Strength (IRE) 11 2 5 4 Apr 25

Shamshon (IRE) 11 0 6 2 Mar 23

Soyounique (IRE) 10 3 8 28 Jun 22

Tactical Control (GB) 8 0 0 3 Apr 25

Botas (IRE) 8 2 5 12 Jul 24

Quinault (GER) 8 4 5 18 May 24

Meleri (GB) 6 1 3 18 Sep 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 330 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 2

Only 2 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

11134101011913107128

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardStuart Williams

26% of all rides
9.9% SR · A/E 1.05

TrainerRWSR£1

Stuart Williams 161 16 9.9% −62.35

Jim Boyle 109 15 13.8% +2.76

John & Thady Gosden 45 10 22.2% −7.28

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

Archived wins

£743k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 17 wins

Quinault (GER) — bet365 Handicap Ascot · Sep 2023 · Class 2

£41,232

Believitanducan (IRE) — Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Apprentice Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Ascot · May 2026 · Class 4

£13,851

Nebras (GB) — Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Newcastle (AW) · Nov 2025 · Class 2

£13,190

Notable horses

Quinault (GER) Buy The Dip (GB) Mister X (IRE) Soyounique (IRE) Got No Dollars (IRE) Irezumi (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Showcasing (GB) 6.7% · 2–30

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,637 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Oasis Dream (GB) 20% · 4–20

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,031 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 484. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 791.

Profitable (IRE) 15% · 3–20

Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,441 runs since 2021 (358 horses).

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,858 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Mehmas (IRE) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,201 runs since 2020 (751 horses).

Mayson (GB) 7.1% · 1–14

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,387 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 817 · newest first

The latest 50 of 817 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 July 2016 to 26 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Tomarlo (GB)T: Jennie Candlish All-Weather Championship Is Back Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 9/2

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Rhythm N Rock (IRE)T: John Butler CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 14/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Wait Geordie (GB)T: Hugo Palmer bettingsites.co.uk Free Bets Offers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 18/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) El Paso (GER)T: Alan King bettingsites.co.uk Best Betting Offers EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 100/1

10 Oct 26 York Water To Wine (FR)T: John & Thady Gosden Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 10.5f · Soft · 18 ran 16th 6/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Wait Geordie (GB)T: Hugo Palmer Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 6th 20/1

07 Oct 26 Nottingham Golden Harvest (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 22/1

06 Oct 26 Leicester Albeseeingyer (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 4th 9/1

05 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Chops (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Download The Raceday Ready App Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 4 ran 4th 80/1

29 Sep 26 Bath Dryburgh (IRE)T: Oli Rix Jdl Consultants Ltd Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 17/2

21 Sep 26 Leicester Albeyours (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 4th 7/1

15 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Chops (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 300/1

11 Sep 26 Sandown Plan C (IRE)T: Alan King Sporting Times Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 5/1

04 Sep 26 Haydock Magic Music (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Arete Foundation Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 10 ran 6th 8/1

01 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sevenkingsmustdie (IRE)T: Alan King Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 5/2

01 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Casablanca Dream (IRE)T: Marco Botti Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 100/1

31 Aug 26 Epsom Amused (IRE)T: Jim Boyle Geoff Lewis Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 7/2J

30 Aug 26 Yarmouth Triple Double A (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer Bodhi Solutions - Constructing Champions Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 4/1

29 Aug 26 Windsor La Kosmos (GB)T: Alan King Bet £20 Get £40 In Free Bets At Matchbook.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Soft · 13 ran 3rd 17/2

28 Aug 26 Sandown Home Hero (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer House Of Killik Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Good · 6 ran 4th 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 26 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Luke Catton's strike rate?: Luke Catton has won 62 of 619 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Luke Catton do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 6 wins from 34 rides (17.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Luke Catton ride most for?: Stuart Williams, with 161 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (9.9%).
Is Luke Catton in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Luke Catton's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 618 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.