What is Tyler Heard's strike rate?

Tyler Heard has won 62 of 1,132 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tyler Heard do best at?

Chelmsford (AW) by strike rate: 9 wins from 115 rides (7.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tyler Heard ride most for?

Mark Usher, with 228 rides since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (7.9%).

Is Tyler Heard in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Tyler Heard's Fair A/E?

0.86, from 1,123 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tyler Heard

1,132 rides in the last 5 seasons · 645 individual horses

As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 7 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)

from 1 Jan 2022

62–1,132

Wins / Runs

5.5%

Strike rate

n=1,132

220 (19%)

Placed

0.86

Fair A/E

n=1,123 · 0.73 incl. margin

−583.48

£1 level stake

n=1,132 at SP · −51.5%

£900k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

2.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 230 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.86). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (77 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,132 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 9 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 26.5% when favourite Mark Usher: 7.9% from 228 LTO winners: 10.4% Claiming: 6.7% Rides the favourite in 3% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 10.4% (n=77, Fair A/E 0.77), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0.6% (n=161, Fair A/E 0.13). Mark Usher supplies 20% of the rides and edges the rider's average (7.9% vs 5.5%, A/E 1.39) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (10.8%, n=65). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 49 rides, 5.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.18 across 112 rides (0.9% strike, −110.67 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Unibet London Stayers' Series Handicap at Kempton (AW) (Dec 2023, £41,232).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.3%−0.2

n=621 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −269.54

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

10.4%+4.9

n=77 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −40.67

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

0.6%−4.9

n=161 · A/E 0.13 · £1 −159.67

When favourite

26.5%

n=34 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −10.04

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.7%+1.2

n=449 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −170.76

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.7%−1.8

n=81 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −55.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

20%+14.5

n=5 · A/E 1.61 · £1 +0.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With John & Thady Gosden 20.4% vs 5.5% · n=49

Over 1m5f – 2m 10.8% vs 5.5% · n=65

Off a 61-180-day break 0.9% vs 5.5% · n=112

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 5.5% · n=49

With new recruits 0% vs 5.5% · n=48

On last-time-out winners 10.4% vs 5.5% · n=77

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 60.7% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 690 44 6.4% −312.06

Good to Firm 151 6 4% −96.00

Good 142 5 3.5% −87.50

Good to Soft 76 5 6.6% −24.42

Soft 45 2 4.4% −35.50

Firm 18 0 0% −18.00

Heavy 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 202 12 5.9% −120.17

Lingfield (AW) 157 12 7.6% −36.25

Kempton (AW) 133 8 6% −23.00

Chelmsford (AW) 115 9 7.8% −65.89

Bath 74 2 2.7% −56.80

Southwell (AW) 69 3 4.3% −52.75

Chepstow 44 3 6.8% −26.50

Windsor 29 1 3.4% −23.00

Yarmouth 28 0 0% −28.00

Ffos Las 26 1 3.8% −19.00

Brighton 26 0 0% −26.00

Newbury 21 1 4.8% −15.00

Lingfield 21 0 0% −21.00

Epsom 21 3 14.3% −1.62

Nottingham 20 2 10% +29.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 522 26 5% −314.10

Class 5 350 23 6.6% −128.51

Class 4 154 6 3.9% −96.37

Class 2 64 4 6.3% −22.50

Class 3 37 2 5.4% −22.50

Class 1 5 1 20% +0.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 42 12 28.6% 1.01 −7.54

2nd–3rd fav 140 23 16.4% 1.04 −12.94

4th–6th fav 339 19 5.6% 0.80 −104.00

7th+ in betting 611 8 1.3% 0.56 −459.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Blue Hero (CAN) 16 1 3 13 Jun 26

From The Hip (GB) 12 3 7 31 Oct 26

Poke The Bear (IRE) 11 3 5 2 Jun 26

Token Gesture (IRE) 11 1 2 6 Jan 26

Kit Gabriel (IRE) 10 0 3 18 Sep 26

The Bay Warrior (IRE) 10 2 4 24 Jan 26

Conquest Of Power (GB) 10 3 4 11 Jul 24

Tronido (GB) 9 2 2 22 Oct 26

Searchingtheblues (GB) 9 2 2 3 Apr 26

Heerathetrack (GB) 9 1 4 8 May 25

Sea The Buckthorn (GB) 9 0 1 27 Mar 25

Sisters In The Sky (GB) 7 0 2 13 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 645 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

10061441165546

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMark Usher

20% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 1.39

TrainerRWSR£1

Mark Usher 228 18 7.9% −73.09

Adrian Wintle 81 3 3.7% −59.47

Phil McEntee 69 3 4.3% −27.88

Simon Dow 50 4 8% −11.00

John & Thady Gosden 49 10 20.4% −0.79

Scott Dixon 47 2 4.3% −17.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→

106

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.21m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 27 wins

Duke Of Oxford (GB) — Unibet London Stayers' Series (Final) Handicap Kempton (AW) · Dec 2023 · Class 2

£41,232

Cajole (GB) — BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Listed) Ascot · Oct 2025 · Listed

£31,191

Star Of Light (GB) — UHY Ross Brooke Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Newbury · Jul 2025 · Class 3

£25,770

Notable horses

La Roca Del Fuego (IRE) Blue Hero (CAN) Keeper's Choice (IRE) From The Hip (GB) Poke The Bear (IRE) Conquest Of Power (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 3% · 1–33

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,603 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Ardad (IRE) 12.9% · 4–31

Progeny have won 8.7% of 3,550 runs since 2021 (352 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5% from 100.

Showcasing (GB) 6.9% · 2–29

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,660 runs since 2014 (1,000 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Outstrip (GB) 4.8% · 1–21

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,289 runs since 2019 (240 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 635. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 265.

Aclaim (IRE) 10% · 2–20

Progeny have won 9.9% of 2,552 runs since 2021 (201 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.7% from 390.

Dandy Man (IRE) 10% · 2–20

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,988 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,642 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,642 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 25 September 2019 to 2 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Candy Warhol (USA)T: Scott Dixon ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 66/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Thi Qar (IRE)T: John & Thady Gosden British Stallion Studs Ebf Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 40/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket From The Hip (GB)T: Mark Usher Prestige Vehicles Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 14/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Seeking Charles (FR)T: Mark Usher Racing TV Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 11/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Defiant Dream (GB)T: Mark Usher Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 10/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Hatta Romance (IRE)T: Mark Usher Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 11f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 40/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Tronido (GB)T: Simon Dow CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 15 ran 7th 22/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) My Spritely (GB)T: Jim Boyle Try Unibet's Superboosts/british Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 8th 300/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Banana (GB)T: Scott Dixon Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 80/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Candy Warhol (USA)T: Scott Dixon Cavani Tailored Champion Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 18/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Ten Of Clubs (GB)T: Scott Dixon Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 80/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Muy Muy Loco (IRE)T: Simon Dow Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 8th 22/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Als Dawn (GB)T: Gay Kelleway Each Way Extra At bet365 EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 6 ran 6th 250/1

13 Oct 26 Leicester Massa Go Go (GB)T: John O'Shea British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 12th 300/1

12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Echo That (GB)T: Patrick Owens Moulton Racing Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 9th 100/1

12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Atalanta Mist (GB)T: Marcus Tregoning Pro Shop At Caister Golf Club Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 12/1

11 Oct 26 Goodwood From The Hip (GB)T: Mark Usher Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 10th 20/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) She Went Whoosh (IRE)T: Scott Dixon Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 250/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) King Of Charm (GB)T: Martin Dunne Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 10th 100/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Tronido (GB)T: Simon Dow Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 19 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tyler Heard's strike rate?: Tyler Heard has won 62 of 1,132 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tyler Heard do best at?: Chelmsford (AW) by strike rate: 9 wins from 115 rides (7.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tyler Heard ride most for?: Mark Usher, with 228 rides since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (7.9%).
Is Tyler Heard in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tyler Heard's Fair A/E?: 0.86, from 1,123 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.