Horse profile
Half A Chance (IRE)
by Beat Hollow (GB) out of Shivermetimber (IRE) (Arctic Lord)
20 runs · 16 courses · from Jan 2024
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
Won at Limerick
Last run 30 May 2026 · 3rd of 5
Last raced off OR 112
KTB Profile
Half A Chance is a gelding who has won one of 20 starts on turf. His sole success came at Limerick in May 2024 in the Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle over 1m5f – 2m on good to soft. He has recorded seven places overall and last ran when third of five in the Julie Satterley 50th Birthday Celebration Handicap Hurdle at Stratford in May 2026 off an official rating of 112. He has raced at 16 different courses.
Based on 20 archived runs · run-style from 17 commented runs since Jan 2025 · updated 1 Nov 2026
- 1–20Wins / Runs
- 5%Strike rate
- 7 (35%)Placed
- +6.00£1 level staken=20 at SP
- 0.48Fair A/E n=20 · 0.40 incl. margin
- 117Highest OR
- 45dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating112↓ 5lb off peak
112
104–117
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 126
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 7 | 133A | 83 | 1 run · — |
| Soft | 4 | 129A | 94.5 | 1 run · — |
| Good | 3 | 126B | 105 | 2 runs · 126 / 115.5 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 125C | 120.5 | 2 runs · 125 / 120.5 |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 9 | 133A | 83 | 5 runs · 126 / 105 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 8 | 129A | 97.5 | 2 runs · 125 / 120.5 |
Of 20 runs looked at, 3 have no figure: not enough races on the card to set the day (under 4) (2) · did not complete (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 17 figures from 20 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 17 analysed runs since Jan 2025
- Mid-division 6 (35%) · 0 wins
- Held up 6 (35%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 4 (24%) · 0 wins
- Led 1 (6%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Beat Hollow (GB)
Progeny in our archive have won 11.3% of 6,033 runs since Jan 2008 (412 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | +0.2 | — |
| Good to Firm | 646 | 88 | 13.6% | +2.3 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 1,737 | 200 | 11.5% | +0.2 | 0 from 5 |
| Good to Soft | 963 | 106 | 11% | −0.3 | 1 from 7 |
| Soft | 1,241 | 134 | 10.8% | −0.5 | 0 from 4 |
| Heavy | 451 | 56 | 12.4% | +1.1 | 0 from 2 |
| Standard (AW) | 969 | 95 | 9.8% | −1.5 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 56 | 10 | 17.9% | +6.6 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 453 | 54 | 11.9% | +0.6 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 704 | 70 | 9.9% | −1.4 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,287 | 150 | 11.7% | +0.4 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1,678 | 211 | 12.6% | +1.3 | 1 from 11 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1,143 | 117 | 10.2% | −1.1 | 0 from 9 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 597 | 58 | 9.7% | −1.6 | — |
| Over 3m | 115 | 12 | 10.4% | −0.9 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 31 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Shivermetimber (IRE) (Arctic Lord)
6 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Katie Too (IRE) (4 wins).
The wins came over 1m7f–3m1½f; the highest grade won is Grade 2 (The Dutchman (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Too (IRE) | 6 | 4 | 2m½f–2m5f | Listed |
| The Dutchman (IRE) | 21 | 3 | 1m7f–3m1½f | Grade 2 |
| The Pirate's Queen (IRE) | 13 | 3 | 2m½f–2m3½f | Listed |
| Get Rich Die Plyin (IRE) | 4 | 1 | 2m7½f | — |
| Springhill Warrior (IRE) | 4 | 0 | — | — |
| The Kicking Queen (IRE) | 3 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 7 | 1 | 14% | +19.00 |
| Good | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Soft | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Heavy | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Class 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limerick | 3 | 1 | 33% | +23.00 |
| Wexford | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Galway | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Stratford | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Cartmel | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Plumpton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Naas | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Thurles | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Taunton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wetherby | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Listowel | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Downpatrick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kilbeggan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Down Royal | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Punchestown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 11 | 1 | 9% | +15.00 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 9 | 0 | 0% | −9.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Hanlon | 15 | 1 | 7% | +11.00 |
| Alan O'Sullivan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sean Flanagan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Miss M O'Sullivan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gavin Brouder | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Rachael Blackmore | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheekpieces | 13 | 0 | 0% | −13.00 |
| None | 7 | 1 | 14% | +19.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2025 | 12 | 0 | 0% | −12.00 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +23.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 16 | 1 | 6% | +10.00 |
| Chase | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| NH Flat | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Flat | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 5 runs | ||||||||||
| 30 May 26+7d | Stratford | Julie Satterley 50th Birthday Celebration Handicap Hurdle Tracked the front group early - moved into second two out then driven with the whip - weakened on the run-in to finish third | 3/5 | 5½ | 11-2 | 112 | 125C | 116B | Paddy Hanlon | 9/1 |
| 23 May 26+16d | Cartmel | William Hill Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Sat close to pace early - lost touch with front rank turning into the straight - stumbled on touchdown and dislodged rider 3 out | UR/2 | — | 10-0 | 113 | — | — | Paddy Hanlon | 3/1 |
| 07 May 26+32d | Wexford | Visitwexford.ie Handicap Chase Settled around midfield early - 6th at the turnaway point then 4th two out under pressure - stayed on steadily to finish 4th beaten just over four lengths | 4/12 | nk | 11-5 | 110 | 80A | 126A | Alan O'Sullivan | 7/1 |
| 05 Apr 26+57d | Plumpton | BetGoodwin Sussex Champion Hurdle Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Sat in the pack early - unable to improve position through the race - well held at the finish | 10/14 | 1½ | 10-4 | 116 | 126B | 96A | Paddy Hanlon | 50/1 |
| 07 Feb 26+49d | Naas | Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle Settled midfield on the rail - made ground into 2nd approaching 4 out - shared front spot after - went clear entering the straight - pressed by rival 2 out and pushed along - overtaken before the last - held 3rd at the last then found nothing more inside the final furlong to finish 4th | 4/12 | 3½ | 11-4 | 112 | 76A | 111A | Paddy Hanlon | 10/1 |
| 2025 · 12 runs | ||||||||||
| 20 Dec 25+23d | Thurles | WTW Willis Handicap Hurdle Held up towards the back early - still only 6th at halfway - improved into 3rd approaching straight but couldn't threaten the leaders before the last - stayed on at one gait to finish 3rd | 3/11 | nk | 10-2 | 111 | 111A | 121A | Paddy Hanlon | 5/1 |
| 27 Nov 25+26d | Taunton | Trucksmith 40th Anniversary Handicap Hurdle Settled in the pack early - moved up into 3rd with 3 furlongs left - driven approaching 2 out but making no headway - stumbled at the last then weakened over the run-in to finish 5th | 5/8 | ¾ | 11-6 | 117 | 116A | 118B | Paddy Hanlon | 15/2 |
| 01 Nov 25+27d | Wetherby | Never Ordinary At bet365 Handicap Hurdle Settled with the pack early - pushed along and made progress before 3 out - fully involved approaching 2 out then promoted into second last - kept going without quickening to finish 2nd beaten a length and a half | 2/7 | 1½ | 10-9 | 116 | 105A | 126B | Paddy Hanlon | 7/1 |
| 05 Oct 25+9d | Tipperary | Jimmy Hayes Memorial Handicap Hurdle Set the pace early - handed up in front after 2nd - sat second before going back up front before 2 out - pushed along after that - hit the final obstacle and dropped back - edged out for second close home | 3/8 | hd | 10-11 | 109 | 80B | 118A | Sean Flanagan | 85/40F |
| 26 Sep 25+7d | Listowel | MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle Sat behind the pace - 4th at halfway - moved up on the inner to 3rd two out - driven into the front approaching the last - hard-driven all the way to the line and caught in the final strides for 2nd | 2/16 | nk | 11-10 | 106 | 100B | 135A | Miss M O'Sullivan | 9/2J |
| 19 Sep 25+47d | Downpatrick | MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle Settled towards back early - urged up in third - moved into fourth two out - reached near level with pacesetter approaching final fence - lost that spot entering the run-in - down to third inside the last furlong - rallied to go second and battled all the way to be caught by a half-length at the line | 2/8 | ½ | 10-13 | 104 | 129A | 119A | Paddy Hanlon | 5/1 |
| 03 Aug 25+6d | Galway | Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle Held up towards the back - unable to make headway from 3 out - well held at the finish | 10/15 | 5 | 11-1 | 105 | 78B | 101A | Gavin Brouder | 7/1 |
| 28 Jul 25+60d | Galway | Iggy Daly Easyfix Handicap Hurdle Held up towards the back of the pack - pushed along into 12th two out and up to 8th at the last - unable to threaten the leaders and finished 7th | 7/20 | 3¾ | 11-8 | 106 | — | 119A | Paddy Hanlon | 14/1 |
| 29 May 25+35d | Limerick | Richard Egan Electrical Handicap Hurdle Settled in the pack - urged forward but unable to close the gap by 2 out - well held at the finish in 7th | 7/12 | 1¼ | 11-2 | 107 | 81A | 104A | Paddy Hanlon | 11/2 |
| 24 Apr 25+38d | Kilbeggan | KilbegganRaces.com Handicap Hurdle Held up at the back - 10th after fifth then closed ground before the last - stayed on late finishing sixth beaten 6.5 lengths | 6/14 | hd | 11-3 | 108 | 95B | 115A | Paddy Hanlon | 17/2 |
| 17 Mar 25+55d | Wexford | Visit Wexford Novice Handicap Hurdle Held up at the back - improved into 9th before 2 out - unable to threaten leaders and stayed on same effort to finish 9th | 9/14 | 3 | 11-12 | 110 | 83B | 107A | Rachael Blackmore | 7/1 |
| 21 Jan 25+236d | Down Royal | Franciscan Well Rated Novice Hurdle Sat close up early - hint of a peck at the first and drifted right at the second - pushed along in third before two out - unable to close and clipped the fence two out then held no more in fourth | 4/4 | 10 | 10-11 | — | 50C | 103B | Paddy Hanlon | 5/1 |
| 2024 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 30 May 24+27d | Limerick | Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle | 1/9 | 10-11 | — | 133A | 128A | Paddy Hanlon | 25/1 | |
| 03 May 24+94d | Punchestown | Howden Insurance Brokers Flat Race | 8/19 | 11 | 11-7 | 105 | 70C | 105C | Paddy Hanlon | 40/1 |
| 30 Jan 24 | Limerick | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction (Pro/Am) Flat Race | 2/5 | 6½ | 11-3 | — | — | 72C | Paddy Hanlon | 66/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Half A Chance won?
- Half A Chance (IRE) won 1 of 20 archived starts between 2024 and 2026, a strike rate of 5%. Placed 7 times in total (35% of starts).
- Who trains Half A Chance?
- Half A Chance (IRE) is trained by John Joseph Hanlon, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 30 May 2026.
- Who is Half A Chance's sire?
- Half A Chance (IRE) is by Beat Hollow (GB) out of Shivermetimber (IRE), whose sire is Arctic Lord.
- What going does Half A Chance prefer?
- Half A Chance (IRE) has the best record on good to soft going: 1 win from 7 starts (14.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Half A Chance's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 112, from the run on 30 May 2026. The highest on record is 117.
- What is Half A Chance's sire's record?
- Beat Hollow (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.3% of 6,033 runs since Jan 2008 (412 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Half A Chance's siblings?
- Out of Shivermetimber (IRE), Half A Chance (IRE) has 6 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Katie Too (IRE) (4). Highest grade won: Grade 2 (The Dutchman (IRE)). The wins came over 1m7f–3m1½f. As at Nov 2026.