What is Paddy Hanlon's strike rate?

Paddy Hanlon has won 36 of 674 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paddy Hanlon do best at?

Downpatrick by strike rate: 7 wins from 46 rides (15.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paddy Hanlon ride most for?

John Joseph Hanlon, with 440 rides since 2022 — 65% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (5.7%).

Is Paddy Hanlon in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Paddy Hanlon's Fair A/E?

0.69, from 674 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paddy Hanlon

674 rides in the last 5 seasons · 270 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 98% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2023→)

from 1 Jan 2022

36–674

Wins / Runs

5.3%

Strike rate

n=674

132 (20%)

Placed

0.69

Fair A/E

n=674 · 0.58 incl. margin

−374.40

£1 level stake

n=674 at SP · −55.5%

£496k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 130 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.69). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 8% (37 rides). Rides mostly for John Joseph Hanlon — 65% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 674 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.1% John Joseph Hanlon: 5.7% from 440 LTO winners: 8.1% Claiming: 5.5%

The read

The record is strongest at Downpatrick (15.2%, n=46), clear of the rider's 5.3% baseline. It is weakest at Kilbeggan (0% over 37 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 1.8% (n=222, Fair A/E 0.42). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.67 and −197.91 to a £1 stake over 270 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. John Joseph Hanlon supplies 65% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (5.7%, A/E 0.73). The rider also reads well off a 61-180-day break (9.7%, n=72).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.1%−1.2

n=270 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −197.91

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

8.1%+2.8

n=37 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −28.58

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.1%+1.8

n=112 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −54.76

When favourite

24.1%

n=29 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −12.19

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

5.5%+0.2

n=641 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −345.73

Big fields · 14+ runners

1.8%−3.5

n=222 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −182.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.3

n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Downpatrick 15.2% vs 5.3% · n=46

With C&D winners 16.1% vs 5.3% · n=31

With debutants 0% vs 5.3% · n=44

At Kilbeggan 0% vs 5.3% · n=37

Off a 61-180-day break 9.7% vs 5.3% · n=72

With first-time headgear 0% vs 5.3% · n=33

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 471 26 5.5% −217.50

Chase 119 8 6.7% −82.07

NH Flat 68 2 2.9% −58.83

Flat 16 0 0% −16.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 326 19 5.8% −173.57

Good to Soft 140 6 4.3% −78.59

Soft 140 5 3.6% −98.34

Heavy 39 1 2.6% −35.50

Good to Firm 28 5 17.9% +12.60

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Downpatrick 46 7 15.2% −1.00

Limerick 38 2 5.3% +0.00

Kilbeggan 37 0 0% −37.00

Wexford 36 1 2.8% −25.00

Galway 29 0 0% −29.00

Punchestown 29 1 3.4% −24.50

Stratford 28 3 10.7% +1.60

Listowel 27 1 3.7% −22.67

Fairyhouse 23 0 0% −23.00

Worcester 22 2 9.1% −17.95

Killarney 19 1 5.3% −8.00

Newton Abbot 18 1 5.6% −14.00

Wincanton 18 1 5.6% −9.50

Taunton 17 3 17.6% −4.37

Sligo 16 0 0% −16.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 105 8 7.6% −0.49

Class 5 94 8 8.5% −50.00

Class 3 22 2 9.1% −10.40

Class 1 13 0 0% −13.00

Class 2 11 0 0% −11.00

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 36 8 22.2% 0.73 −15.19

2nd–3rd fav 99 11 11.1% 0.68 −46.71

4th–6th fav 215 14 6.5% 0.90 −76.50

7th+ in betting 324 3 0.9% 0.32 −236.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

81.2% completed · 590 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 119 70.6% 4 8 22 1 0

Hurdle 471 83.9% 13 6 52 2 3

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Roxboro River (IRE) 16 1 3 22 Jul 26

Seasett (GB) 16 2 5 17 Jul 25

Mother Ship (IRE) 15 1 3 19 Sep 26

Half A Chance (IRE) 15 1 5 30 May 26

Pahlavi (IRE) 14 1 4 29 Jun 26

Lakefield Flyer (IRE) 12 2 5 26 Jul 26

Person Of Interest (IRE) 12 1 3 8 May 26

Topgun Simmy (IRE) 11 3 7 18 Aug 25

Pure Logic (GB) 9 1 5 19 Sep 26

Quest With Speed (IRE) 9 1 2 31 Mar 26

Brilliant Light (GB) 9 1 3 4 Nov 25

Miss Oreo (IRE) 9 0 0 23 Jul 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 270 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

0715285586223

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJohn Joseph Hanlon

65% of all rides
5.7% SR · A/E 0.73

TrainerRWSR£1

John Joseph Hanlon 440 25 5.7% −202.69

Syd Hosie 55 5 9.1% −28.37

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2023→

Archived wins

£496k

Prize money

2026

Best season · 12 wins

Maldini Milano (IRE) — Southern Cranes & Access Ltd Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Plumpton · Apr 2026 · Class 3

£12,582

Half A Chance (IRE) — Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle Limerick · May 2024

£11,800

Cloonainra (IRE) — Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Chase Listowel · Sep 2025

£10,030

Notable horses

Topgun Simmy (IRE) Seasett (GB) Lakefield Flyer (IRE) Hewick (IRE) Khafre (FR) Roxboro River (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Affinisea (IRE) 7.5% · 3–40

Progeny have won 13.2% of 1,288 runs since 2022 (205 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 9.1% · 3–33

Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,040 runs since 2011 (707 horses).

Wootton Bassett (GB) 7.7% · 2–26

Progeny have won 13% of 5,695 runs since 2015 (792 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 162.

Valirann (FR) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 10.1% of 1,451 runs since 2018 (159 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7% from 345.

Ol' Man River (IRE) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 7.3% of 508 runs since 2022 (57 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 10.7% from 103. Weakest on Good going: 4.1% from 171.

Beat Hollow (GB) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 11.3% of 6,034 runs since 2008 (412 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 674 · newest first

The latest 50 of 674 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 June 2023 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Newbury King William Rufus (FR)T: Chris Gordon OLBG Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 14th 18/1

02 Nov 26 Plumpton Maldini Milano (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Southern Cranes Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20.5f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 100/30

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Christine's Star (GB)T: Michael Mullineaux Bob Derry 50 Years At Uttoxeter National Hunt Flat Race (conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 8th 300/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Mo Ghille Mar (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Persimmon Homes Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 5th 11/1

25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Kourosh (GER)T: Henry Oliver £27 Race & Roast Package Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 8/1

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Cloonainra (IRE)T: John McConnell William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 33/1

06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Heroes Of Renown (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Mongey Communications Handicap Steeplechase22.5f · Yielding To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 50/1

06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) My Cullen (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Ryans Cleaning Handicap Steeplechase18f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 16/1

06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Hello Garda (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon SIS Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 18/1

20 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Hello Garda (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Kinisla Charleville Cheese 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 4th 11/1

19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Mother Ship (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (Div II)19f · Good · 16 ran 1st 11/1

19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Pure Logic (GB)T: John Joseph Hanlon Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (Div I)19f · Good · 15 ran 2nd 12/1

19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Crystal Mariner (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 16 ran 7th 20/1

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot My Cullen (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Tony Mccarthy Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 6 ran PU 7/1

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot It's A Breeze (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Devondale Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 5/1

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Penzance (GB)T: John Joseph Hanlon Edmundson Electrical Cabletec Plymouth Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 6/4

07 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Mother Ship (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 15/2

07 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Jetty May (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Grandad Swales Happy 80th Birthday Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 5/1

07 Sep 26 Newton Abbot War Correspondent (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Par Inn Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 4 ran 4th 22/1

07 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Crystal Mariner (IRE)T: John Joseph Hanlon Race Against Waste Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 100/30

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 25 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 2 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paddy Hanlon's strike rate?: Paddy Hanlon has won 36 of 674 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paddy Hanlon do best at?: Downpatrick by strike rate: 7 wins from 46 rides (15.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paddy Hanlon ride most for?: John Joseph Hanlon, with 440 rides since 2022 — 65% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (5.7%).
Is Paddy Hanlon in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paddy Hanlon's Fair A/E?: 0.69, from 674 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.