Horse profile
No Guarantee (GB)
by The Gurkha (IRE) out of Tropical Rock (GB) (Fastnet Rock)
30 runs · 12 courses · from Oct 2023
As at 25 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
2 wins · Hereford & Ludlow
Last run 12 Apr 2026 · 6th of 6
Last raced off OR 84
KTB Profile
No Guarantee is a gelding who has won two of 30 starts on turf, both over 1m5f – 2m. He won a Class 5 handicap hurdle at Hereford on soft ground in Dec 2025 off an official rating of 83 and a Class 4 novices’ claiming hurdle at Ludlow on good to soft ground the same month off 75. He has never won on good ground. Typically held up, he finished 6 of 6 at Wincanton in Apr 2026 when last raced off an official rating of 84.
Based on 30 archived runs · run-style from 22 commented runs since Sep 2024 · updated 25 Oct 2026
- 2–30Wins / Runs
- 6.7%Strike rate
- 5 (16.7%)Placed
- +13.50£1 level staken=30 at SP
- 1.17Fair A/E n=30 · 0.98 incl. margin
- 91Highest OR
- 32dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating84↓ 7lb off peak
84
61–91
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 89
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 25 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 12 | 105B | 80 | 2 runs · 89 / 63 |
| Soft | 6 | 89B | 76.5 | 3 runs · 89 / 88 |
| Good to Soft | 5 | 94C | 68 | 3 runs · 94 / 92 |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 25 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 13 | 94C | 81 | 6 runs · 94 / 88.5 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 9 | 105B | 73 | 1 run · — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
Of 30 runs looked at, 7 have no figure: did not complete (6) · obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 23 figures from 30 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 22 analysed runs since Sep 2024
- Mid-division 10 (45%) · 1 win
- Held up 7 (32%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 4 (18%) · 1 win
- Led 1 (5%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 9.7% of 2,024 runs since Jan 2008 (127 horses).
Strongest on good to firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 111.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 4 | 1 | 25% | +15.3 | — |
| Good to Firm | 183 | 25 | 13.7% | +4 | — |
| Good | 511 | 53 | 10.4% | +0.7 | 0 from 15 |
| Good to Soft | 210 | 21 | 10% | +0.3 | 1 from 8 |
| Soft | 321 | 23 | 7.2% | −2.5 | 1 from 7 |
| Heavy | 105 | 3 | 2.9% | −6.8 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 690 | 70 | 10.1% | +0.4 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 43 | 5 | 11.6% | +1.9 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 449 | 48 | 10.7% | +1 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 536 | 49 | 9.1% | −0.6 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 564 | 51 | 9% | −0.7 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 297 | 32 | 10.8% | +1.1 | 2 from 16 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 111 | 7 | 6.3% | −3.4 | 0 from 12 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | +7.7 | 0 from 2 |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −9.7 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 25 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Tropical Rock (GB) (Fastnet Rock)
2 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them Magnum Force (IRE) (1 win).
The wins came over 5f–2m1f; the highest grade won is Class 5 (Tropical Talent (GB)).
Family form: Tropical Talent (GB) finished 3rd of 9 at Uttoxeter, 4 Oct 2026.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnum Force (IRE) | 6 | 1 | 5f | — |
| Tropical Talent (GB) | 28 | 1 | 2m1f | Class 5 |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 15 | 0 | 0% | −15.00 |
| Good to Soft | 8 | 1 | 13% | +26.00 |
| Soft | 7 | 1 | 14% | +2.50 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 25 | 1 | 4% | −15.50 |
| Class 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +30.00 |
| Class 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fontwell | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Huntingdon | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Plumpton | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Wincanton | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Ludlow | 3 | 1 | 33% | +31.00 |
| Stratford | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Hereford | 2 | 1 | 50% | +7.50 |
| Market Rasen | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Ffos Las | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newton Abbot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Southwell | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kempton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 16 | 2 | 13% | +27.50 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 12 | 0 | 0% | −12.00 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabitha Worsley | 13 | 0 | 0% | −13.00 |
| James Turner | 9 | 2 | 22% | +34.50 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Sean Bowen | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| David Bass | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Liam Harrison | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| James Best | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lorcan Murtagh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tongue tie + visor | 12 | 2 | 17% | +31.50 |
| Tongue tie + cheekpieces | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| None | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| Tongue tie + blinkers | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tongue tie | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2025 | 14 | 2 | 14% | +29.50 |
| 2024 | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 26 | 2 | 8% | +17.50 |
| Chase | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| NH Flat | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 5 runs | ||||||||||
| 12 Apr 26+25d | Wincanton | Bridles New Luxury Care Home Handicap Chase Held up towards the back - driven to keep pace and dropped away 3 out - well held at the finish | 6/6 | 2¼ | 10-7 | 84 | 37C | 69C | James Turner | 10/1 |
| 18 Mar 26+20d | Hereford | Remembering Brian Davies And Volcano Novices' Handicap Chase Settled just off the pace - began losing ground 4 out - eased and pulled up before 3 out | PU/8 | — | 10-13 | 87 | — | — | James Turner | 7/1 |
| 26 Feb 26+25d | Ludlow | Nightjar British Stout Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Settled mid-pack early - clipped first fence - improved and pushed along 3 out - clipped again 2 out then stayed on at one gear to the last - finished third | 3/5 | 10 | 10-12 | 89 | 94C | 84B | James Turner | 12/1 |
| 01 Feb 26+17d | Market Rasen | Summer Plate Ladies Day 18th July Handicap Hurdle Held up towards the back - made headway 4 out to move into second 3 out - dropped away before 2 out - driven along and faded on the run-in to finish sixth | 6/8 | 7 | 10-13 | 90 | 85A | 81A | James Turner | 6/1 |
| 15 Jan 26+26d | Wincanton | Get The Best Odds With Oddschecker Handicap Hurdle Held up towards the back - driven into contention after the second - improved into contention before 2 out - stayed on into the front group approaching the last but weakened to be edged out of fourth close home | 5/13 | shd | 11-0 | 91 | 89B | 107A | James Turner | 16/1 |
| 2025 · 14 runs | ||||||||||
| 20 Dec 25+17d | Hereford | tigerbet.co.uk Bet Online Handicap Hurdle Settled in midfield early - made headway on front-runners approaching 3 out - looked strongest and hit the front around the bend before the last - drifted left at the final fence - kept on to win | 1/15 | 10-6 | 83 | 88B | 102A | James Turner | 17/2 | |
| 03 Dec 25+17d | Ludlow | Marsh Commercial Insurance Novices' Claiming Hurdle Sat just behind the pace - moved into third before 3 out and pushed along - clipped the second-last - stayed on well up the run-in to hit the front - won going away | 1/6 | 10-9 | 75 | 92A | 101B | James Turner | 33/1 | |
| 16 Nov 25+14d | Fontwell | BetGoodwin Free Bet Nose Losers Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Settled towards the back of the field - moved into fourth and closed on the front pair after three out - pressed for effort but faded from two out | 9/11 | 18 | 10-7 | 77 | 60C | 71C | James Turner | 25/1 |
| 02 Nov 25+17d | Huntingdon | PricedUp.Bet Handicap Hurdle Settled in the pack - pressed for effort three out - unable to find extra - well held in 8th | 8/12 | 6 | 10-1 | 78 | 89C | 70C | James Turner | 16/1 |
| 16 Oct 25+25d | Ffos Las | RWK Goodman Handicap Hurdle Wide early up with leader - jumping awkwardly 4 out - driven but made no dent and gave up second spot after - faded soon after - stumbled at last then rallied late for distant third | 3/6 | 9 | 10-2 | 78 | 90A | 85B | Sean Bowen | 9/4 |
| 21 Sep 25+31d | Plumpton | Mary & Barry Faulkner's Golden Wedding Handicap Hurdle Shared front spot early - went clear alone before the 6th - caught approaching 3 out and slightly awkward there - pushed along and lost the front then dropped away 2 out | 6/8 | 7½ | 10-2 | 79 | 87B | 76A | Freddie Mitchell | 3/1F |
| 21 Aug 25+5d | Newton Abbot | South West Rail Solutions Ltd. Handicap Hurdle Sat close to the front group - pushed along before the second-last - stayed on without finding enough to get on terms - finished third | 3/13 | 1½ | 9-11 | 71 | 105B | 96A | Freddie Mitchell | 2/1F |
| 16 Aug 25+27d | Market Rasen | PricedUp Handicap Hurdle Settled in the pack early - driven on approaching home turn and moved into second before the last but skipped it - always held by the runaway winner in defeat | 2/12 | 4 | 9-11 | 71 | — | 95A | Freddie Mitchell | 12/1 |
| 20 Jul 25+33d | Stratford | George & Dragon Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Settled at the back - pushed along before two out then blundered there - stayed on for fourth | 4/9 | 11 | 10-5 | 72 | 73A | 72B | David Bass | 9/2 |
| 17 Jun 25+80d | Stratford | 20th July Is Ladies Day Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Held up towards the back early - made progress into contention before two out - unable to close on the front pair into the turn for home - kept plugging away on the run-in to snatch third close to the line | 3/12 | 4¾ | 10-5 | 61 | 93B | 100A | Liam Harrison | 18/1 |
| 29 Mar 25+17d | Stratford | Cash Is King On Course Novices' Handicap Hurdle Settled around midpack early on eager terms - improved onto the pace after three out then lost touch approaching two out - dropped away sharply after the last to finish well beaten in 9th | 9/10 | 4½ | 10-2 | 65 | 78C | 62C | Tabitha Worsley | 50/1 |
| 12 Mar 25+23d | Huntingdon | Advertise Your Business At Huntingdon Racecourse Handicap Hurdle Settled in the pack - moved into third after 4 out then asked for effort and faded - well held by the finish | 7/9 | 7 | 9-13 | 65 | 79A | 69A | Tabitha Worsley | 80/1 |
| 17 Feb 25+32d | Southwell | Watch Unbridled On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle Settled midfield early - improved into third with four to go before edging closer under pressure into the straight - dropped away fast approaching two out | 8/9 | 1½ | 10-2 | 65 | 68A | 72A | James Best | 250/1 |
| 16 Jan 25+37d | Wincanton | 90 January & February Hospitality Offer Handicap Hurdle Settled midpack early - dropped away sharply approaching 2 out - eased and taken out of contention | PU/17 | — | 10-2 | 65 | — | — | Lorcan Murtagh | 150/1 |
| 2024 · 8 runs | ||||||||||
| 10 Dec 24+32d | Fontwell | John And Maryanne Birch Memorial Handicap Hurdle Settled handy in third early - urged forward after 3 out - lost touch with the front three from 2 out - stayed on for a distant fourth | 4/9 | 26 | 9-13 | 65 | 68C | 77C | Tabitha Worsley | 100/1 |
| 08 Nov 24+31d | Fontwell | Broadsword Confidence In Construction Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Settled at the back early - closed in before 3 out but pressed for no gain - clipped 2 out - stayed on at one speed to finish 7th | 7/14 | 5 | 10-2 | 65 | 66C | 73C | Tabitha Worsley | 150/1 |
| 08 Oct 24+16d | Huntingdon | JCB Mini-Excavator Handicap Hurdle (Div 2) Held up in the middle of the pack on the outside - ridden and dropping away from 4 out - well behind after 3 out and finished a distant 10th | 10/11 | 42 | 9-13 | 65 | 69C | 63C | Tabitha Worsley | 200/1 |
| 22 Sep 24+137d | Plumpton | Strong Flavours Handicap Hurdle Held a midfield spot wide - needed encouragement approaching the 5th - urged for effort past the 8th - dropped away four out and pulled up | PU/9 | — | 9-13 | 65 | — | — | Tabitha Worsley | 200/1 |
| 08 May 24+72d | Fontwell | Star Sports We Believe In Bookmaking Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle | PU/12 | — | 10-2 | 65 | — | — | Tabitha Worsley | 125/1 |
| 26 Feb 24+29d | Plumpton | Brough Scott Backs Jamie's Farm Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) | 8/12 | 23 | 10-6 | — | 48C | 70C | Tabitha Worsley | 250/1 |
| 28 Jan 24+21d | Fontwell | Download The Vickers.Bet App EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | PU/8 | — | 10-0 | — | — | — | Tabitha Worsley | 200/1 |
| 07 Jan 24+41d | Plumpton | BetGoodwin Tom Cannon Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race) | 5/5 | 1¼ | 10-11 | — | 38C | 75C | Tabitha Worsley | 200/1 |
| 2023 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 27 Nov 23+18d | Kempton | Racing Tv Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (GBB Race) | PU/6 | — | 10-11 | — | — | — | Tabitha Worsley | 200/1 |
| 09 Nov 23+30d | Ludlow | Rea Valley Tractors Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) | 9/11 | nk | 10-11 | — | 66A | 85A | Tabitha Worsley | 250/1 |
| 10 Oct 23 | Huntingdon | Racing TV 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race) | 11/14 | 25 | 10-11 | — | 81C | 63C | Tabitha Worsley | 200/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has No Guarantee won?
- No Guarantee (GB) won 2 of 30 archived starts between 2023 and 2026, a strike rate of 6.7%. Placed 5 times in total (16.7% of starts).
- Who trains No Guarantee?
- No Guarantee (GB) is trained by Alexander Gibbons, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 12 April 2026.
- Who is No Guarantee's sire?
- No Guarantee (GB) is by The Gurkha (IRE) out of Tropical Rock (GB), whose sire is Fastnet Rock.
- What going does No Guarantee prefer?
- No Guarantee (GB) has the best record on soft going: 1 win from 7 starts (14.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is No Guarantee's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 84, from the run on 12 April 2026. The highest on record is 91.
- What is No Guarantee's sire's record?
- The Gurkha (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.7% of 2,024 runs since Jan 2008 (127 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on good to firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 111.
- Who are No Guarantee's siblings?
- Out of Tropical Rock (GB), No Guarantee (GB) has 2 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: Magnum Force (IRE) (1). Highest grade won: Class 5 (Tropical Talent (GB)). The wins came over 5f–2m1f. As at Oct 2026.