Probability (IRE)
Probability (IRE) is 5 from 14. Hasn't won since May 2019. All 5 wins have come over 6f – 7f.
- 5–14Wins / Runs
- 35.7%Strike rate
- 8 (57.1%)Placed
- +19.80£1 level staken=14 at SP
- 2.36Fair A/E n=14 · 2.00 incl. margin
- 89Highest OR
- 37dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 96
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was.
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 14 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 11 | 98B | 85 | — |
| Good | 3 | 102C | 93 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 14 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 11 | 102C | 85 | — |
| Under 6f | 3 | 96A | 91 | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 14 figures from 14 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9.5% of 304 runs since Jan 2008 (34 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | +23.8 | — |
| Good to Firm | 55 | 3 | 5.5% | −4 | — |
| Good | 51 | 3 | 5.9% | −3.6 | 1 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 25 | 2 | 8% | −1.5 | — |
| Soft | 54 | 4 | 7.4% | −2.1 | — |
| Heavy | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | −1.8 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 90 | 14 | 15.6% | +6.1 | 4 from 11 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 55 | 6 | 10.9% | +1.4 | 0 from 3 |
| 6f – 7f | 128 | 13 | 10.2% | +0.7 | 5 from 11 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | +5.1 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | −1.2 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 30 | 1 | 3.3% | −6.2 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | −2.1 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 11 | 0 | 0% | −9.5 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 14 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
1 sibling in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Rambuso Creek (IRE) (4 wins).
The wins came over 5f–6f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Rambuso Creek (IRE)).
Family form: Rambuso Creek (IRE) won at Nottingham, 14 Oct 2026.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rambuso Creek (IRE) | 46 | 4 | 5f–6f | Class 4 |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 11 | 4 | 36% | +13.80 |
| Good | 3 | 1 | 33% | +6.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 4 | 5 | 3 | 60% | +21.00 |
| Class 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Class 5 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +3.00 |
| Class 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class 6 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.80 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 4 | 1 | 25% | +2.00 |
| Kempton (AW) | 3 | 2 | 67% | +14.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.20 |
| Ayr | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Naas | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chester | 1 | 1 | 100% | +8.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 11 | 5 | 45% | +22.80 |
| Under 6f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Greatrex | 6 | 3 | 50% | +9.80 |
| Hollie Doyle | 3 | 1 | 33% | +6.00 |
| Ben Curtis | 2 | 1 | 50% | +7.00 |
| Richard Kingscote | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Miss Kate Leahy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gary Carroll | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 13 | 5 | 38% | +20.80 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 19+20d | Ayr | Al Maktoum Cup Arran Scottish Fillies' Sprint Stakes (Listed) | 16/16 | 3 | 8-12 | 88 | 83C | 43A | Richard Kingscote | 33/1 |
| 31 Aug 19+15d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Premier Suppliers Of Business Furniture deskstor.co.uk Handicap | 7/7 | 1 | 8-8 | 88 | 91A | 64A | Miss Kate Leahy | 7/2 |
| 16 Aug 19+23d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Bet totequadpot At totesport.com Handicap | 2/7 | ¾ | 9-6 | 88 | 96A | 91A | Hollie Doyle | 9/2 |
| 24 Jul 19+34d | Naas | Yeomanstown Stud Irish EBF Stakes (Fillies' Listed) | 9/17 | 2 | 9-0 | 89 | 102C | 82A | Gary Carroll | 20/1 |
| 20 Jun 19+26d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Lifehouse Spa Day Fillies' Handicap | 4/10 | ½ | 9-6 | 89 | 89A | 85A | Hollie Doyle | 12/1 |
| 25 May 19+32d | Chester | Chester Heritage Festival Fillies' Handicap | 1/9 | 9-7 | 85 | 93A | 95A | Hollie Doyle | 8/1 | |
| 23 Apr 19+11d | Lingfield (AW) | Download The Star Sports App Now! Handicap | 5/7 | 1 | 9-7 | 85 | 85A | 78A | Ben Curtis | 3/1 |
| 12 Apr 19+13d | Kempton (AW) | 32Red.com Handicap | 1/10 | 9-4 | 82 | 79A | 83A | Edward Greatrex | 7/1 | |
| 30 Mar 19+44d | Kempton (AW) | Matchbook Best Value Exchange Handicap | 1/12 | 9-0 | 78 | 76A | 79A | Ben Curtis | 8/1 | |
| 14 Feb 19+12d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Extra Places At totesport.com Handicap | 1/5 | 9-7 | 73 | 90C | 82B | Edward Greatrex | 5/1 | |
| 02 Feb 19+14d | Kempton (AW) | 32Red Casino Handicap | 3/8 | 1¾ | 9-7 | 73 | 77A | 77A | Edward Greatrex | 5/2 |
| 19 Jan 19+17d | Lingfield (AW) | Betway Median Auction Maiden Stakes | 1/8 | 8-7 | — | 78B | 80A | Edward Greatrex | 4/5F | |
| 02 Jan 19+216d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Betway Novice Stakes | 2/13 | ½ | 8-7 | — | 98B | 80A | Edward Greatrex | 10/1 |
| 31 May 18 | Chelmsford City (AW) | 20 Free Bets At totesport.com Novice Auction Stakes (Plus 10) | 10/12 | shd | 8-11 | — | 47A | 49A | Edward Greatrex | 3/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Probability (IRE) won?
- Probability (IRE) won 5 of 14 archived starts between 2018 and 2019, a strike rate of 35.7%. Placed 8 times in total (57.1% of starts).
- Who trained Probability (IRE)?
- Probability (IRE) was trained by Archie Watson on the most recent run on record, at Ayr on 20 September 2019.
- Who is Probability (IRE)'s sire?
- Probability (IRE) is by Moohaajim (IRE) out of Fine Prospect (IRE), whose sire is Namid.
- What going does Probability (IRE) prefer?
- Probability (IRE) has the best record on standard (aw) going: 4 wins from 11 starts (36.4%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Probability (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 88, from the run on 20 September 2019. The highest on record is 89.
- What is Probability (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Moohaajim (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.5% of 304 runs since Jan 2008 (34 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Probability (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Fine Prospect (IRE), Probability (IRE) has 1 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Rambuso Creek (IRE) (4). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Rambuso Creek (IRE)). The wins came over 5f–6f. As at Oct 2026.