Horse profile
Tommy's Promise (GB)
21 runs · 10 courses · from Sep 2023
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
4 wins · Lingfield (AW) & Chelmsford City (AW)
Last run 3 Apr 2026 · 9th of 15
Last raced off OR 67
KTB Profile
Tommy's Promise is a gelding with four wins from 21 starts, all on the all-weather over 1m2f – 1m4f. He has three wins from eight starts at Lingfield (AW) and one from one at Chelmsford City (AW), with all four coming in handicaps on Standard (AW) going. The last of those came at Lingfield (AW) in Jan 2026 off an official rating of 62. He last ran at Lingfield (AW) in Apr 2026, finishing 9 of 15 off a career-high mark of 67.
Based on 21 archived runs · run-style from 18 commented runs since Mar 2025 · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance
All wins on AW
OR at career high
- 4–21Wins / Runs
- 19%Strike rate
- 9 (42.9%)Placed
- −6.54£1 level staken=21 at SP
- 1.47Fair A/E n=21 · 1.22 incl. margin
- 67Highest OR
- 17dBetween runs (median)longest 476 d
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating67At career-high mark
67
45–67
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 92
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 8 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 11 | 97B | 85 | 9 runs · 97 / 89 |
| Good | 3 | 119A | 93 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 95B | 90 | — |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 51C | 47.5 | — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 8 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 10 | 119A | 89.5 | 8 runs · 97 / 89.5 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 6 | 95B | 72.5 | 1 run · — |
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 69A | 51 | — |
Of 21 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: did not complete (2).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 19 figures from 21 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 18 analysed runs since Mar 2025
- Mid-division 6 (33%) · 1 win
- Prominent 6 (33%) · 0 wins
- Held up 5 (28%) · 2 wins
- Led 1 (6%) · 1 win
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 11.6% of 2,946 runs since Apr 2022 (369 horses).
Strongest on standard (aw) going: 15% from 965. Weakest on heavy going: 5.6% from 142.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 5 | 2 | 40% | +28.4 | — |
| Good to Firm | 373 | 47 | 12.6% | +1 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 693 | 65 | 9.4% | −2.2 | 0 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 339 | 35 | 10.3% | −1.3 | 0 from 3 |
| Soft | 429 | 39 | 9.1% | −2.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Heavy | 142 | 8 | 5.6% | −6 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 965 | 145 | 15% | +3.4 | 4 from 11 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 70 | 3 | 4.3% | −7.3 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 903 | 97 | 10.7% | −0.9 | 0 from 3 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 905 | 107 | 11.8% | +0.2 | 0 from 6 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 806 | 106 | 13.2% | +1.6 | 4 from 10 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 195 | 23 | 11.8% | +0.2 | 0 from 2 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 66 | 5 | 7.6% | −4 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −11.6 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Apr 2022 · as at 8 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
5 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Bobby Shaftoe (GB) (8 wins).
The wins came over 6f–2m1f; the highest grade won is Class 2 (Spring Cosmos (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaftoe (GB) | 47 | 8 | 7f–2m½f | Class 5 |
| Ravens Hill (IRE) | 25 | 2 | 2m–2m1f | Class 4 |
| Spring Cosmos (IRE) | 6 | 1 | 6f | Class 2 |
| Miss Laila (IRE) | 5 | 1 | 7f | Class 5 |
| Hope N Pray (IRE) | 4 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 11 | 4 | 36% | +3.46 |
| Good | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Soft | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 6 | 12 | 3 | 25% | −1.29 |
| Class 5 | 6 | 1 | 17% | −2.25 |
| Class 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lingfield (AW) | 8 | 3 | 38% | −0.04 |
| Yarmouth | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Ayr | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +5.50 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Brighton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Musselburgh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lingfield | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Perth | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 10 | 4 | 40% | +4.46 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darragh Keenan | 5 | 2 | 40% | +5.25 |
| Donagh Murphy | 3 | 2 | 67% | +1.21 |
| Andrew Mullen | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Stevie Donohoe | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Tyrese Cameron | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sean D Bowen | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Mr Lewis Kent | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Mr Louis Burke | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Christian Howarth | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Mr Paul Hainey | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Brian Hughes | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Danny McMenamin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 20 | 4 | 20% | −5.54 |
| Cheekpieces | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 1 | 25% | −0.25 |
| 2025 | 14 | 3 | 21% | −3.29 |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 19 | 4 | 21% | −4.54 |
| Hurdle | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 4 runs | ||||||||||
| 03 Apr 26+34d | Lingfield (AW) | Midnite All-Weather Vase Apprentice Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Pulled hard early - settled in the pack - pressed for effort 2f out - progress into the last furlong then finished on one level | 9/15 | ¾ | 8-8 | 67 | 92B | 68A | Tyrese Cameron | 12/1 |
| 28 Feb 26+30d | Lingfield (AW) | Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap Sat close to pace early - hit front outside two furlongs - had to be niggled for effort - lost command inside final furlong and dropped away | 5/8 | nse | 9-1 | 67 | 89A | 70A | Darragh Keenan | 7/2 |
| 29 Jan 26+12d | Lingfield (AW) | Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap Settled second early - eased back to third under pressure with 2f left - regained momentum to close on the front pair inside the final furlong - retook second in the closing stages but unable to find more | 2/9 | 1¼ | 8-13 | 66 | 63A | 70A | Donagh Murphy | 9/4J |
| 17 Jan 26+26d | Lingfield (AW) | Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap Set the pace early - lost front spot after a furlong but stayed close up - regained second spot with 2f left - hit the front a furlong out - fended off a strong late rally through the final stretch - hung on by a whisker | 1/9 | 9-4 | 62 | 93A | 83A | Darragh Keenan | 11/4F | |
| 2025 · 14 runs | ||||||||||
| 22 Dec 25+7d | Lingfield (AW) | Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Settled midfield early - crept forward before 2f out with encouragement needed - closed on front pair inside final furlong - hit the front 110yds out and drove clear to the line | 1/10 | 8-11 | 52 | 90A | 69A | Donagh Murphy | 5/6F | |
| 15 Dec 25+11d | Lingfield (AW) | Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap (Div 1) Towards the rear of the pack - angled left and threaded gaps to make progress approaching the final furlong - hit the top just inside 110yds out - kept on to win comfortably | 1/13 | 8-13 | 52 | 97B | 73A | Donagh Murphy | 11/8F | |
| 04 Dec 25+2d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Flutter Proudly Supporting Pancreatic Cancer UK Handicap Settled towards the back early - swung wide and began stepping through from 3f out - finishing strongly through the middle of the track approaching the last 2f - hit the front inside the final furlong and quickly clear - won going away | 1/12 | 9-1 | 45 | 80A | 76A | Darragh Keenan | 11/2 | |
| 02 Dec 25+7d | Lingfield (AW) | Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 Handicap (Div 2) Held a midfield spot early - roused with a furlong and a half left - shared second position close home - stayed on but couldn't get to the leader | 3/8 | nk | 8-7 | 45 | 85A | 62A | Sean D Bowen | 10/1 |
| 25 Nov 25+85d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Up with the front group on the rail - urged along 3f out - angled left below 1f out - kept on without threatening | 6/13 | 2½ | 9-11 | 45 | 60B | 61A | Mr Lewis Kent | 12/1 |
| 01 Sep 25+17d | Brighton | Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Took a strong hold early - settled just off midfield - moved through around 2f out - dropped away in the closing stages to finish eighth | 8/9 | 1¼ | 9-3 | 46 | 85A | 52A | Darragh Keenan | 7/2F |
| 15 Aug 25+7d | Yarmouth | QuinnBet Classified Stakes Held up towards the back of the pack down the middle - dropped away over the final two furlongs - finished eighth | 8/12 | 4¼ | 9-9 | 48 | 95B | 52A | Stevie Donohoe | 9/2 |
| 08 Aug 25+17d | Musselburgh | Evolution BPS McCabe And Little Memorial Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Clumsy start - settled towards the back - stumbled approaching 3f out then driven up in the tempo - stayed on late to finish 7th beaten 6 lengths | 7/7 | ½ | 9-7 | 49 | 69A | 50A | Mr Louis Burke | 10/1 |
| 22 Jul 25+13d | Lingfield | BetWright Safer Gambling Classified Stakes Settled in the pack on the widest line - dropped away with 2f left - trailed home at the finish | 13/14 | 6½ | 9-6 | 49 | 51C | 39C | Christian Howarth | 3/1F |
| 09 Jul 25+12d | Yarmouth | RCA Groundstaff Awards Handicap Settled with eager keenness behind the front group - moved through with purpose 2f out looking well in the mix - driven and in with a shout 1f out - edged out close home to finish second | 2/11 | 1½ | 9-3 | 49 | 93B | 78A | Darragh Keenan | 7/1 |
| 27 Jun 25+8d | Yarmouth | QuinnBet Classified Stakes Settled off the pace early - improved into contention 4f out then pushed to challenge in front approaching 2f out - stayed on strongly in the closing stages to finish third | 3/10 | nk | 9-9 | 45 | 119A | 76A | Stevie Donohoe | 8/1 |
| 19 Jun 25+55d | Lingfield (AW) | HighBet Club WC 30 Bonus Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Settled just behind the pace - pushed along with 2f left - closed inside final furlong to grab third | 3/11 | nk | 10-2 | 45 | 77B | 64A | Mr Paul Hainey | 12/1 |
| 25 Apr 25+49d | Perth | Campbell & Son Roofing Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Fought against restraint early - lost ground with a poor leap at the opener and struggled to hold a position near the back - dropped away markedly before being eased out of contention two from home | PU/9 | — | 10-6 | — | — | — | Brian Hughes | 250/1 |
| 07 Mar 25+476d | Ayr | Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Settled with leaders early - fighting for control - clumsy over 6th - lost ground soon after - eased out of contention before 3 out | PU/9 | — | 10-10 | — | — | — | Danny McMenamin | 25/1 |
| 2023 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 17 Nov 23+36d | Newcastle (AW) | BetMGM: Stay Golden With Responsible Play EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2) | 9/9 | 13 | 9-7 | — | 37C | 41C | Andrew Mullen | 150/1 |
| 12 Oct 23+21d | Ayr | Virgin Bet Novice Stakes (GBB Race) | 6/6 | 20 | 9-4 | — | 22C | 40C | Andrew Mullen | 150/1 |
| 21 Sep 23 | Ayr | Western House Hotel EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) | 9/9 | 4¼ | 9-4 | — | 44C | 42C | Andrew Mullen | 66/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Tommy's Promise won?
- Tommy's Promise (GB) won 4 of 21 archived starts between 2023 and 2026, a strike rate of 19%. Placed 9 times in total (42.9% of starts).
- Who trains Tommy's Promise?
- Tommy's Promise (GB) is trained by John Ryan, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 3 April 2026.
- Who is Tommy's Promise's sire?
- Tommy's Promise (GB) is by Saxon Warrior (JPN) out of Sister Red (IRE), whose sire is Diamond Green.
- What going does Tommy's Promise prefer?
- Tommy's Promise (GB) has the best record on standard (aw) going: 4 wins from 11 starts (36.4%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Tommy's Promise's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 67, from the run on 3 April 2026. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Tommy's Promise's sire's record?
- Saxon Warrior (JPN)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.6% of 2,946 runs since Apr 2022 (369 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on standard (aw) going: 15% from 965. Weakest on heavy going: 5.6% from 142.
- Who are Tommy's Promise's siblings?
- Out of Sister Red (IRE), Tommy's Promise (GB) has 5 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Bobby Shaftoe (GB) (8). Highest grade won: Class 2 (Spring Cosmos (IRE)). The wins came over 6f–2m1f. As at Nov 2026.