Winter Carnival (IRE)
Winter Carnival is a maiden who has failed to win in 23 starts on turf though he has placed three times. His best effort came when third of 14 at Limerick in Jan 2025. He has raced 19 times over 2m5f to 3m with no success and has never won on soft or heavy ground. He finished 16 of 18 in the Irish Wire Products Ltd Handicap Hurdle at Limerick in May 2026 when last raced off OR 73.
- 0–23Wins / Runs
- 0%Strike rate
- 3 (13%)Placed
- −23.00£1 level staken=23 at SP
- 0.00Fair A/E n=23 · 0.00 incl. margin
- 107Highest OR
- 70dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 78
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy | 7 | 128B | 76 | 2 · 63 / 51 |
| Soft | 5 | 113B | 82 | 1 · — |
| Good | 3 | 120C | 99 | — |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 114B | 63.5 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m5f – 3m | 13 | 128B | 82 | 1 · — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 2 | 63B | 41 | 2 · 63 / 41 |
| Over 3m | 2 | 120C | 66.5 | — |
Of 23 runs looked at, 6 have no figure: did not complete (5) · obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 17 figures from 23 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 6 analysed runs
- Held up 3 (50%) · 0 wins
- Midfield 2 (33%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 1 (17%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 7.6% of 1,300 runs since Jan 2008 (131 horses).
Strongest on heavy going: 11.3% from 194.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 6 | 0 | 0% | −7.6 | — |
| Good | 376 | 28 | 7.4% | −0.2 | 0 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 259 | 17 | 6.6% | −1 | 0 from 5 |
| Soft | 450 | 32 | 7.1% | −0.5 | 0 from 7 |
| Heavy | 194 | 22 | 11.3% | +3.7 | 0 from 8 |
| Standard (AW) | 15 | 0 | 0% | −7.6 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 9 | 0 | 0% | −7.6 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 383 | 25 | 6.5% | −1.1 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 465 | 34 | 7.3% | −0.3 | 0 from 2 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 373 | 34 | 9.1% | +1.5 | 0 from 19 |
| Over 3m | 70 | 6 | 8.6% | +1 | 0 from 2 |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 17 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
1 sibling in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Positive Thinker (IRE) (3 wins).
The wins came over 2m4f–3m.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive Thinker (IRE) | 25 | 3 | 2m4f–3m | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| Soft | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Good to Soft | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Good | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limerick | 10 | 0 | 0% | −10.00 |
| Galway | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Ballinrobe | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Clonmel | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kilbeggan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Thurles | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Roscommon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sligo | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Punchestown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m5f – 3m | 19 | 0 | 0% | −19.00 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Over 3m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan King | 9 | 0 | 0% | −9.00 |
| Diarmuid Moloney | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Keith Donoghue | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Shane Fitzgerald | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| John Shinnick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Philip Donovan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Michael O'Sullivan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Conor McNamara | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Hugh Morgan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 15 | 0 | 0% | −15.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Tongue tie | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Blinkers | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 2025 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2024 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| 2023 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| 2022 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 20 | 0 | 0% | −20.00 |
| Chase | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May 26+151d | Limerick | Irish Wire Products Ltd. Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) Early on shared the front-running - lost command after 3rd - slipped towards the back before the 6th - no response from 3 out and finished well beaten in 16th | 16/18 | 42 | 9-9 | 73 | 19C | 68C | Alan King | 28/1 |
| 28 Dec 25+26d | Limerick | D Pack Packaging Handicap Hurdle (0-100) Held up early - remained at the back of the field throughout - no impression made on leaders - finished well beaten in 12th | 12/18 | 5½ | 10-0 | 75 | 39B | 69A | John Shinnick | 14/1 |
| 02 Dec 25+38d | Clonmel | William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) Handy early - slipped back to 6th by halfway then further to 8th - clipped 2 out - little response through last stages - stayed on at one gear finishing 7th | 7/16 | 2¾ | 9-11 | 76 | 63B | 86A | Alan King | 14/1 |
| 25 Oct 25+197d | Galway | COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Hurdle (0-100) Settled around midfield early - moved into contention approaching 3rd - still close up before blundering and losing rider at the 5th | UR/16 | — | 9-11 | 76 | — | — | Alan King | 16/1 |
| 11 Apr 25+73d | Ballinrobe | Sherry Fitzgerald Mayo Handicap Hurdle (0-100) Settled midpack early - pushed along by the seventh with no real gain - dropped away late to finish tenth | 10/15 | nk | 9-13 | 78 | 78B | 81A | Alan King | 10/1 |
| 28 Jan 25+70d | Limerick | Become A Member At Limerick Handicap Hurdle (0-100) Settled midfield early - improved to sit second after the 2nd then fourth after the 6th - unable to threaten up front approaching the last - kept responding late to level for third at the line | 3/14 | dht | 9-13 | 78 | 128B | 95B | Alan King | 14/1 |
| 19 Nov 24+24d | Limerick | Mr Binman Christmas Racing Festival 26th - 29th December Handicap Hurdle (80-102) Held up at the back - error 4th - down in 10th by 8th - closed a touch turning in before fading before 2 out - finished 8th | 8/11 | 1¾ | 10-1 | 82 | 74C | 73C | Alan King | 10/1 |
| 26 Oct 24+64d | Galway | COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Hurdle (80-95) Held a forward spot early - slipped back to 12th after the 8th and stumbled at the next - nudged forward again by two out but ragged over it - lost touch before the last and beaten well home | 13/20 | 6 | 10-11 | 85 | 92B | 77A | Alan King | 28/1 |
| 23 Aug 24+87d | Kilbeggan | Racing Again On 4th September Handicap Chase (0-95) Held up at back early - ballooned second and stumbled 8th - driven with no response from 5 out - finished well adrift | 9/14 | 43 | 10-11 | 85 | 13C | 81C | Alan King | 33/1 |
| 28 May 24+79d | Ballinrobe | FBD Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2) | 9/16 | 1¼ | 10-13 | 87 | — | 90A | Alan King | 16/1 |
| 10 Mar 24+26d | Limerick | Follow Limerick Races On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (80-95) | 10/18 | ¾ | 11-0 | 88 | 87C | 82C | Diarmuid Moloney | 15/2 |
| 13 Feb 24+84d | Thurles | Killinan Handicap Hurdle (80-95) | 4/18 | 1¾ | 11-0 | 88 | 81B | 106A | Diarmuid Moloney | 10/1 |
| 21 Nov 23+71d | Limerick | Mr Binman Christmas Racing Festival 26th - 29th December Handicap Hurdle (80-102) | 9/14 | 1½ | 10-11 | 92 | 76C | 81C | Diarmuid Moloney | 14/1 |
| 11 Sep 23+34d | Galway | Galway Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2) | 9/17 | 3¼ | 11-9 | 95 | 82B | 89A | Philip Donovan | 14/1 |
| 08 Aug 23+30d | Roscommon | Paul Byron Shoes Handicap Hurdle (80-109) | 10/13 | 2¾ | 11-4 | 98 | 114B | 101A | Michael O'Sullivan | 40/1 |
| 09 Jul 23+45d | Sligo | Sligo Park Hotel Handicap Hurdle (80-109) | 11/12 | 35 | 11-7 | 102 | 120C | 87C | Shane Fitzgerald | 40/1 |
| 25 May 23+21d | Limerick | Shoe Rescue Beginners Chase | UR/11 | — | 11-9 | — | — | — | Shane Fitzgerald | 200/1 |
| 04 May 23+127d | Tipperary | Storm The Stars At Coolagown Stud Beginners Chase | PU/7 | — | 11-12 | — | — | — | Conor McNamara | 50/1 |
| 28 Dec 22+38d | Limerick | Harrison O'Dowd Solicitors Handicap Hurdle | PU/18 | — | 10-12 | 107 | — | — | Diarmuid Moloney | 16/1 |
| 20 Nov 22+21d | Punchestown | Irish Ebf Supporting Galabid.com/t21 Auction For The Down Syndrome Centre Maiden Hurdle | 6/13 | 4½ | 11-12 | — | 113B | 101A | Keith Donoghue | 66/1 |
| 30 Oct 22+206d | Galway | Glenlo Abbey Hotel & Estate Maiden Hurdle | F/14 | — | 11-12 | — | — | — | Keith Donoghue | 20/1 |
| 07 Apr 22+25d | Limerick | Locke Burger (C & G) Maiden Hurdle | 4/18 | 3 | 11-12 | — | 99B | 113A | Keith Donoghue | 12/1 |
| 13 Mar 22 | Limerick | BetVictor Maiden Hurdle | 3/8 | hd | 11-9 | — | 73A | 110A | Hugh Morgan | 25/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Winter Carnival (IRE) won?
- Winter Carnival (IRE) has yet to win, from 23 archived starts between 2022 and 2026. Placed 3 times in total (13% of starts).
- Who trains Winter Carnival (IRE)?
- Winter Carnival (IRE) is trained by John Neilan, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 28 May 2026.
- Who is Winter Carnival (IRE)'s sire?
- Winter Carnival (IRE) is by Arctic Cosmos (USA) out of Clip Her Tail (IRE), whose sire is Old Vic.
- What is Winter Carnival (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 73, from the run on 28 May 2026. The highest on record is 107.
- What is Winter Carnival (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Arctic Cosmos (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 7.6% of 1,300 runs since Jan 2008 (131 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on heavy going: 11.3% from 194.
- Who are Winter Carnival (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Clip Her Tail (IRE), Winter Carnival (IRE) has 1 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Positive Thinker (IRE) (3). The wins came over 2m4f–3m. As at Oct 2026.