What is Keith Donoghue's strike rate?

Keith Donoghue has won 254 of 2,076 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Keith Donoghue do best at?

Downpatrick by strike rate: 19 wins from 88 rides (21.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Keith Donoghue ride most for?

Gavin Cromwell, with 1,271 rides since 2022 — 61% of the total. That pairing has won 179 (14.1%).

Is Keith Donoghue in form?

In the last 14 days: 23 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 8.7%. That is below the baseline of 12.2% since 2022.

What is Keith Donoghue's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 2,076 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Keith Donoghue

2,076 rides in the last 5 seasons · 686 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2022

254–2,076

Wins / Runs

12.2%

Strike rate

n=2,076

664 (32%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=2,076 · 0.78 incl. margin

−843.90

£1 level stake

n=2,076 at SP · −40.7%

£4.81m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.5%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 420 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (250 rides). Rides mostly for Gavin Cromwell — 61% of rides in the window. The rider is quiet just now — 2 winners in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,076 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Oct Fresh horses: 13.2% 36% when favourite Gavin Cromwell: 14.1% from 1,271 LTO winners: 19.2% Rides the favourite in 16% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Downpatrick (21.6%, n=88) and Bellewstown (20.5%, n=44) — all clear of the rider's 12.2% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19.2% (n=250, Fair A/E 1.06), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 6.1% (n=214, Fair A/E 0.59). Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 2 from 23 rides in the last 14 days (8.7%, 3.5pts below the 12.2% baseline). Gavin Cromwell supplies 61% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (14.1%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well in Class 2 (22.5%, n=40). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 5.3% over 246 rides, 6.9pts below the baseline. 24 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase at Listowel (Sep 2024, £118,000). The standout partner of the record: Final Orders (GB) — 8 wins from 26 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

9.9%−2.3

n=624 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −307.55

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

19.2%+7.0

n=250 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −59.32

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

13.2%+1.0

n=492 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −139.66

When favourite

36%

n=331 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −13.70

Big fields · 14+ runners

9.7%−2.5

n=974 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −499.88

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.1%−6.1

n=214 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −131.31

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Downpatrick 21.6% vs 12.2% · n=88

On last-time-out winners 19.2% vs 12.2% · n=250

In Class 2 22.5% vs 12.2% · n=40

In Class 1 5.3% vs 12.2% · n=246

In Group / Graded races 6.1% vs 12.2% · n=214

At Bellewstown 20.5% vs 12.2% · n=44

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,307 147 11.2% −601.25

Chase 762 107 14% −235.65

NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 857 96 11.2% −365.10

Good 471 62 13.2% −177.30

Good to Soft 417 48 11.5% −219.50

Heavy 327 48 14.7% −78.00

Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Fairyhouse 212 22 10.4% −105.71

Punchestown 207 21 10.1% −123.95

Naas 111 14 12.6% −46.02

Navan 106 10 9.4% −49.24

Kilbeggan 101 10 9.9% −29.25

Leopardstown 100 7 7% −63.88

Tramore 96 14 14.6% −37.19

Galway 94 15 16% +18.73

Downpatrick 88 19 21.6% −1.67

Cheltenham 81 11 13.6% −30.30

Clonmel 81 14 17.3% −20.81

Wexford 80 10 12.5% −26.83

Gowran Park 72 9 12.5% −40.59

Limerick 67 9 13.4% −24.25

Killarney 64 8 12.5% −38.20

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 246 13 5.3% −163.31

Class 2 40 9 22.5% +2.95

Class 3 14 1 7.1% −10.25

Class 4 7 0 0% −7.00

Class 5 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 372 123 33.1% 1.09 −40.32

2nd–3rd fav 555 87 15.7% 0.97 −144.08

4th–6th fav 546 33 6% 0.79 −240.50

7th+ in betting 603 11 1.8% 0.57 −419.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.5% completed · 2,069 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 762 81.6% 30 12 95 2 1

Hurdle 1,307 89.3% 30 9 95 4 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Final Orders (GB) 23 8 12 26 Aug 26

Path D'oroux (FR) 23 3 8 1 Aug 26

Railway Hurricane (IRE) 18 0 8 20 Dec 25

Dutch Schultz (GB) 16 2 6 5 Oct 25

Visionarian (IRE) 16 2 3 23 Aug 25

In The Trenches (GB) 15 0 5 24 Jul 26

Union Station (IRE) 13 0 9 23 Oct 26

Yeah Man (IRE) 13 1 5 6 Apr 26

Ahead Of The Posse (IRE) 13 1 3 22 May 25

Money Heist (IRE) 13 3 6 20 Apr 25

Stumptown (IRE) 12 5 7 26 Oct 26

Vanillier (FR) 12 2 2 4 Feb 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 686 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

2 from 23 8.7% · −3.5pts vs baseline

Last 14 days8.7%

5-season base12.2%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1312128141010141419810

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardGavin Cromwell

61% of all rides
14.1% SR · A/E 0.98

TrainerRWSR£1

Gavin Cromwell 1,271 179 14.1% −484.53

J P Dempsey 101 14 13.9% −14.64

Ian Patrick Donoghue 97 7 7.2% −46.50

Gordon Elliott 58 8 13.8% −30.60

Ross O'Sullivan 57 10 17.5% −18.67

Matthew J Smith 45 2 4.4% −27.50

J T R Dreaper 45 3 6.7% −24.30

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

442

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.60m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 67 wins

Flooring Porter (IRE) — Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Listowel · Sep 2024 · Grade 3

£118,000

Hello Neighbour (IRE) — Gannon's City Recovery & Recycling Services Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2025 · Grade 1

£88,500

The Storyteller (IRE) — Ladbrokes Champion Chase (Grade 1) Down Royal · Oct 2020 · Grade 1

£73,750

Notable horses

Final Orders (GB) The Storyteller (IRE) Darver Star (IRE) Stumptown (IRE) Jeremys Flame (IRE) Ceanndana (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Walk In The Park (IRE) 12.1% · 13–107

Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,076 runs since 2011 (711 horses).

Westerner (GB) 8.8% · 6–68

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,871 runs since 2009 (946 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Yeats (IRE) 14.6% · 7–48

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,855 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Court Cave (IRE) 9.1% · 4–44

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,966 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Doyen (IRE) 7.7% · 3–39

Progeny have won 11.6% of 7,389 runs since 2009 (606 horses).

Jukebox Jury (IRE) 15.8% · 6–38

Progeny have won 13.6% of 2,258 runs since 2016 (257 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,277 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,277 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 August 2009 to 10 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Sound As A Bell (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Irish National Hunt Steeplechase CLG Beginners Steeplechase20f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 8th 125/1

10 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Cool As A Cat (IRE)T: Tom Dreaper Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Mares Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 9th 22/1

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Carrig Padraig (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 4th 40/1

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Hill Of Berries (IRE)T: J P Dempsey Matchbook 50/5 Series Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 8th 80/1

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Good Option (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Matchbook Betting Exchange Rated Novice Steeplechase16.5f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 3rd 100/30

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Laska Du Breuil (FR)T: Gavin Cromwell Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Steeplechase24.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 4th 11/1

08 Nov 26 Naas (IRE) Royal Soldier (IRE)T: Mrs G Callaghan Into Kildare Beginners Steeplechase16f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 7th 125/1

07 Nov 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Got The Honours (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Proficient Engineering Irish EBF Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 3rd 6/5F

07 Nov 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Cracking Cloud (GB)T: Ross O'Sullivan PRL Group Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 4th 8/1

07 Nov 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Break My Soul (IRE)T: Ian Patrick Donoghue Noreside Catering Handicap Steeplechase16f · Good · 7 ran 5th 3/1J

07 Nov 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Sixandahalf (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Beginners Steeplechase16f · Good · 4 ran 1st 4/11F

05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Ceanndana (IRE)T: Ross O'Sullivan Clonmel Oil Service Station Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 7 ran 7th 9/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Take Stock (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell racingtv.com/freetrial Beginners Chase15.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 6th 33/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Caprison (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Start Your Free Trial On Racing Tv Now Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 5th 4/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Bud Fox (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 1st 9/2

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Sir Benji (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Winter Festival 28th & 29th November 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 2nd 15/8J

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Deep Warrior (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Ballymaloe Foods Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 21 ran 11th 40/1

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Born Braver (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Steeplechase28f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran F 20/1

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Lennon Grove (IRE)T: Gavin Cromwell Paddy Power 'Did You Watch The Breeders Cup At All?' Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 19 ran 2nd 8/15F

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Bacharach (GB)T: Gavin Cromwell Paddy Power From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 2nd 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 8 runs (won 4) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 17 runs (won 3, 2 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 10 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Keith Donoghue's strike rate?: Keith Donoghue has won 254 of 2,076 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Keith Donoghue do best at?: Downpatrick by strike rate: 19 wins from 88 rides (21.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Keith Donoghue ride most for?: Gavin Cromwell, with 1,271 rides since 2022 — 61% of the total. That pairing has won 179 (14.1%).
Is Keith Donoghue in form?: In the last 14 days: 23 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 8.7%. That is below the baseline of 12.2% since 2022.
What is Keith Donoghue's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 2,076 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.