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Jockey profile

John Shinnick

769 rides in the last 5 seasons · 345 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Won yesterday Last ride yesterday 100% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2022
61–769
Wins / Runs
7.9%
Strike rate
n=769
159 (21%)
Placed
1.19
Fair A/E
n=769 · 0.95 incl. margin
−244.38
£1 level stake
n=769 at SP · −31.8%
£840k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.1%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.19). In Group and Graded company the record reads 16% (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 769 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr Fresh horses: 12.2% 34.7% when favourite Terence O'Brien: 11.9% from 253 LTO winners: 15.1% Claiming: 8.2% Group/Graded: 16.1%
The read

The record is strongest at Clonmel (16.7%, n=66), clear of the rider's 7.9% baseline. It is weakest at Listowel (0% over 36 rides) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads well at 16.1% (n=31, Fair A/E 2.31), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 4.9% (n=345, Fair A/E 0.94). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 12.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 2.21 and +40.00 to a £1 stake over 164 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Terence O'Brien supplies 33% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.9% vs 7.9%, A/E 1.23) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan (Nov 2025, £59,000). Seasonally, the rider fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.9%−3.0
n=345 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −180.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
15.1%+7.2
n=53 · A/E 1.15 · £1 +8.33
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
12.2%+4.3
n=164 · A/E 2.21 · £1 +40.00
When favourite
34.7%
n=49 · A/E 1.50 · £1 +13.87
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.2%+0.3
n=597 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −171.79
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.2%−1.7
n=453 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −195.87
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.1%+8.2
n=31 · A/E 2.31 · £1 +20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Clonmel 16.7% vs 7.9% · n=66
With debutants 0% vs 7.9% · n=63
On last-time-out winners 15.1% vs 7.9% · n=53
At Listowel 0% vs 7.9% · n=36
At Thurles 0% vs 7.9% · n=36
In Group / Graded races 16.1% vs 7.9% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 606 44 7.3% −210.13
Chase 147 17 11.6% −18.25
NH Flat 13 0 0% −13.00
Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 272 21 7.7% −88.54
Good 223 14 6.3% −99.92
Good to Soft 158 11 7% −66.50
Heavy 115 14 12.2% +8.58
Good to Firm 1 1 100% +2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Limerick 72 6 8.3% +5.83
Cork 66 6 9.1% −36.25
Clonmel 66 11 16.7% +16.08
Punchestown 61 3 4.9% −19.00
Wexford 50 4 8% −12.50
Tramore 43 5 11.6% −12.59
Ballinrobe 42 5 11.9% +0.00
Kilbeggan 42 4 9.5% −20.70
Killarney 40 2 5% +2.00
Listowel 36 0 0% −36.00
Thurles 36 0 0% −36.00
Fairyhouse 26 1 3.8% −19.50
Tipperary 24 1 4.2% −19.00
Downpatrick 23 0 0% −23.00
Naas 22 3 13.6% −11.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 34 5 14.7% +17.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 54 17 31.5% 1.38 +8.87
2nd–3rd fav 109 16 14.7% 1.01 −21.25
4th–6th fav 180 17 9.4% 1.37 −2.00
7th+ in betting 426 11 2.6% 1.03 −230.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.3% completed · 753 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 147 74.1% 10 3 25 0 0
Hurdle 606 89.3% 8 7 46 3 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Answer To Kayf (GB) 16 4 8 11 Apr 26
Stellar Symphony (IRE) 16 2 6 24 Jul 25
Pray Tell (IRE) 12 2 5 15 May 26
High Honour (GB) 12 1 3 16 Nov 25
Emancipator (IRE) 12 3 3 20 Apr 25
Whiskeywealth (IRE) 11 2 3 8 Mar 25
Nytol (IRE) 10 2 3 17 Jul 26
Cathys Quest (IRE) 10 1 2 16 Oct 25
Lep Around (IRE) 9 1 4 18 Oct 26
Ellies Rock (IRE) 9 1 2 2 Jul 26
Must Be Dreaming (IRE) 9 1 1 4 Jul 25
Kilmurry Jj (IRE) 9 2 3 15 Nov 24
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 345 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
2 from 9
Only 9 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
912101343312131067
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardTerence O'Brien
33% of all rides
11.9% SR · A/E 1.23
TrainerRWSR£1
Terence O'Brien 253 30 11.9% −49.42
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
66
Archived wins
5
Pattern / graded wins
£900k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 22 wins
Answer To Kayf (GB) — Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Navan · Nov 2025 · Grade 3
£59,000
Thisistheway (IRE) — Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Hurdle Series Final Punchestown · Apr 2025
£44,250
Colonel Mustard (FR) — Railway Bar Lismullen Hurdle (Grade 2) Navan · Nov 2025 · Grade 2
£29,500
Notable horses
Answer To Kayf (GB) Emancipator (IRE) Doitforjane Sid (IRE) Stellar Symphony (IRE) Pray Tell (IRE) Whiskeywealth (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mahler (GB) 7.5% · 3–40
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,878 runs since 2014 (788 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Yeats (IRE) 23.1% · 6–26
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,844 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.
Valirann (FR) 16% · 4–25
Progeny have won 10.1% of 1,451 runs since 2018 (159 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7% from 345.
Walk In The Park (IRE) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,040 runs since 2011 (707 horses).
Ask (GB) 11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,218 runs since 2014 (283 horses).
Fame And Glory (GB) 17.6% · 3–17
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,212 runs since 2016 (504 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 897 · newest first

The latest 50 of 897 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 September 2018 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Courtbrack Boy (IRE)T: Terence O'Brien Prior Park Service Station Clonmel Handicap Steeplechase17f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 1st 9/1
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Dunville Destiny (IRE)T: Terence O'Brien Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 11 ran 8th 150/1
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Bog Cross (IRE)T: Miss M Harding Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good · 12 ran 7th 40/1
03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Synchronize (IRE)T: J Morrison William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 9th 28/1
01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Filly Butler (IRE)T: G Ahern Paddy Power 'Did You Watch The Breeders Cup At All?' Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 19 ran 4th 125/1
26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Wildhorserider (IRE)T: Terence O'Brien COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Hurdle24f · Heavy · 19 ran PU 28/1
26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Bog Cross (IRE)T: Miss M Harding Corrib Oil Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 20 ran 7th 100/1
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Holly's Thunder (IRE)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler COLM QUINN BMW Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 13/2
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Lanzhou (FR)T: J P Flavin Brasserie On The Corner Handicap Steeplechase18f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 1st 16/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Banjaxed (GB)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 10 ran PU 16/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Ballito Beauty (IRE)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 8th 66/1
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Lep Around (IRE)T: Miss M Harding Limerick Show Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 10th 80/1
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Bog Cross (IRE)T: Miss M Harding Irish Wire Products (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 7th 100/1
13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Julie's Moon (IRE)T: Ms Margaret Mullins William Hill Challenge Series 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 9 ran 8th 250/1
11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Synchronize (IRE)T: J Morrison Kendellen Construction Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Good · 14 ran 8th 66/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Tedworth (IRE)T: Michael Barry Gleneagle Group Handicap Hurdle23f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 9th 11/2
03 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Banjaxed (GB)T: Mrs Lorna Fowler Sign up to – GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap Steeplechase20f · Good To Yielding · 6 ran 4th 14/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Awordinyourear (IRE)T: Terence O'Brien Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 18th 150/1
01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Lincall (FR)T: Michael Paul Ryan Kilmore Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 100/30
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Daphne Blake (IRE)T: Peter Maher Kelly Hearing Specialists Mares Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran PU 400/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 22 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 1) · to 5 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is John Shinnick's strike rate?
John Shinnick has won 61 of 769 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Shinnick do best at?
Clonmel by strike rate: 11 wins from 66 rides (16.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does John Shinnick ride most for?
Terence O'Brien, with 253 rides since 2022 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 30 (11.9%).
Is John Shinnick in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 9 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Shinnick's Fair A/E?
1.19, from 769 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).