Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFirst rides: 6.1%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
6.1%+2.3
n=33 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −20.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−3.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−3.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−3.8
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On first rides for the horse6.1% vs 3.8% · n=33
In Flat races3.8% vs 3.8% · n=52 · A/E 0.69
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 8.2% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1915.3%−12.00
Good to Soft1600%−16.00
Soft1119.1%−5.00
Standard (AW)500%−5.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Toulouse (FR)1200%−12.00
Mont-De-Marsan (FR)10110%−4.00
La Teste De Buch (FR)8112.5%−1.00
Dax (FR)800%−8.00
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)400%−4.00
Pau (FR)400%−4.00
Tarbes (FR)200%−2.00
Deauville (FR)200%−2.00
Longchamp (FR)100%−1.00
Craon (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4800%−8.00
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav6233.3%2.09+7.00
4th–6th fav1700%0.00−17.00
7th+ in betting2900%0.00−29.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f3525.7%−22.00
1m – 1m1f1100%−11.00
6f – 7f600%−6.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2024200%−2.00
202511100%+5.00
20264912%−42.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps300%−3.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners2000%−20.00
8-10 runners1417.1%−7.00
14-16 runners1200%−12.00
5-7 runners500%−5.00
2-4 runners11100%+5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 33 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
······7080·0
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,294 runs since 2016 (311 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 868. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 725.
Progeny have won 13.4% of 993 runs since 2023 (160 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 17% from 336. Weakest on Soft going: 10.3% from 223. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.7% from 183.
Progeny have won 2.5% of 79 runs since 2021 (21 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 76 · newest first
The latest 50 of 76 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 November 2018 to 26 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Clement Merille's strike rate?
Clement Merille has won 2 of 52 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Clement Merille in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Clement Merille's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 52 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Clement Merille·SR 3.8%·A/E 0.69
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