Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
23.8%+9.7
n=21 · A/E 1.66 · £1 +24.80
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−14.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
10%−4.1
n=20 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −3.10
First-time headgear · true-first definition
25%+10.9
n=4 · A/E 2.08 · £1 +3.90
When favourite
33.3%
n=9 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +1.90
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
20%+5.9
n=5 · A/E 1.47 · £1 +6.60
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
3.7%−10.4
n=27 · A/E 0.41 · £1 −16.80
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races14.3% vs 14.1% · n=63 · A/E 1.19
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat63914.3%+14.00
Hurdle100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)25520%+7.70
Soft1317.7%+14.00
Good to Soft1218.3%−9.00
Good9111.1%+1.20
Heavy5120%−0.90
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)21314.3%+2.60
Chantilly (FR)15320%−1.80
Longchamp (FR)10220%+27.20
La Teste De Buch (FR)5120%−2.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)300%−3.00
Toulouse (FR)300%−3.00
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)200%−2.00
Fontainebleau (FR)200%−2.00
Tarbes (FR)100%−1.00
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12713.7%−16.80
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite9333.3%1.20+1.90
2nd–3rd fav18316.7%1.03−0.70
4th–6th fav2428.3%1.00−2.20
7th+ in betting1317.7%2.05+14.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f26623.1%+31.70
1m – 1m1f2428.3%−7.70
Under 6f9111.1%−6.00
1m2f – 1m4f400%−4.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222613.8%−23.00
202315213.3%−4.80
202413430.8%+41.10
202510220%−0.30
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps17211.8%+16.10
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners22418.2%−2.90
14-16 runners21314.3%+23.70
5-7 runners12216.7%+1.20
11-13 runners800%−8.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 25 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 23 had their first archived run for this yard.
11 have since run for another yard, most often for Allan Estrabol (2); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
03333017252017011100
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Tin Horse (IRE) — Poule D'Essai Des Poulains (3yo Colts) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · May 2011 · Group 1
£221,664
Penny's Picnic (IRE) — Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (2yo) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Nov 2012 · Group 2
£90,250
Sans Equivoque (GER) — Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (2yo) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Oct 2016 · Group 2
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,128 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 254. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 142.
Fastnet Rock (AUS)14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,479 runs since 2008 (556 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 211.
Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,440 runs since 2008 (172 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 10% from 321. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.3% from 425.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 742 · newest first
The latest 50 of 742 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 April 2005 to 8 November 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is D Guillemin's strike rate?
D Guillemin has won 9 of 64 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.1% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is D Guillemin's Fair A/E?
1.14, from 64 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
D Guillemin·SR 14.1%·A/E 1.14
KTB
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