Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.5%−0.2
n=44 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −33.20
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−4.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−4.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=6 · A/E 1.60 · £1 +1.20
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−4.7
n=37 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −37.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races4.7% vs 4.7% · n=64 · A/E 0.65
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)4936.1%−34.90
Good to Soft800%−8.00
Soft500%−5.00
Good100%−1.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)3113.2%−24.10
Deauville (FR)2129.5%−13.80
Saint-Cloud (FR)700%−7.00
Longchamp (FR)400%−4.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6233.3%1.60+1.20
2nd–3rd fav10110%0.70−3.10
4th–6th fav1200%0.00−12.00
7th+ in betting3600%0.00−36.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f2400%−24.00
1m2f – 1m4f18211.1%−10.80
6f – 7f1815.6%−11.10
1m5f – 2m400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224736.4%−32.90
20231600%−16.00
2024100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4012.5%−36.10
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners3400%−34.00
11-13 runners13215.4%−2.20
8-10 runners1119.1%−7.70
17+ runners300%−3.00
5-7 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 47 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
8000000000015
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Saint Roch (FR) — Prix de Picardie (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Sep 2018
£24,336
A Head Ahead (GER) — Prix du Cotentin (Handicap) (4yo+) (Round Course) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Jul 2019
£23,423
Mondovino (FR) — Prix Qatar Racing & Equestrian Club (Handicap) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2008
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,123 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4% from 253. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 142.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,031 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.9% from 241. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.2% from 198.
Sidestep (AUS)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 9.1% of 650 runs since 2008 (65 horses).
Vespone (IRE)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 8% of 591 runs since 2008 (82 horses). Weakest on Good going: 4.5% from 112. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.2% from 179.
Progeny have won 7.8% of 540 runs since 2008 (78 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 713 · newest first
The latest 50 of 713 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 May 2005 to 22 August 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Cyrille Stefan's strike rate?
Cyrille Stefan has won 3 of 64 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Cyrille Stefan do best at?
Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 rides (3.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Cyrille Stefan's Fair A/E?
0.65, from 64 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Cyrille Stefan·SR 4.7%·A/E 0.65
KTB
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