Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
10.9%−3.4
n=46 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +0.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
14.3%+0.0
n=7 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −2.50
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
10%−4.3
n=20 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −8.80
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +0.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
15.8%+1.5
n=19 · A/E 1.75 · £1 +12.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
7.7%−6.6
n=13 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −5.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With M Pitart23.5% vs 14.3% · n=34
In Flat races10.9% vs 14.3% · n=46
On first rides for the horse10.9% vs 14.3% · n=46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat46510.9%+2.00
Hurdle9333.3%+14.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)20315%+17.50
Soft1516.7%−4.00
Good to Soft9111.1%−1.50
Heavy7342.9%+8.00
Good400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)10110%+10.30
Lyon-La Soie (FR)7114.3%+2.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)7114.3%−4.00
Marseille Pont-de-Vivaux (FR)400%−4.00
Aix-Les-Bains (FR)400%−4.00
Auteuil (FR)4250%+14.50
Vichy (FR)400%−4.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)300%−3.00
Vittel (FR)300%−3.00
Nancy (FR)2150%+5.50
Deauville (FR)200%−2.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)2150%+6.20
Compiegne (FR)200%−2.00
Fontainebleau (FR)11100%+3.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4600%−6.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3133.3%1.23+0.00
2nd–3rd fav6116.7%1.10−1.50
4th–6th fav19526.3%3.27+24.20
7th+ in betting2713.7%1.26−6.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f2328.7%−11.80
1m – 1m1f1119.1%−2.00
2m1f – 2m4f8337.5%+15.00
6f – 7f7114.3%+0.50
1m5f – 2m6116.7%+14.30
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022100%−1.00
20236116.7%−3.00
20243133.3%+17.30
20259111.1%−0.80
202637513.5%+3.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps19315.8%+18.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners19421.1%+4.20
8-10 runners16318.8%+24.30
14-16 runners1317.7%−5.50
5-7 runners700%−7.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 46 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 5
Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
200··0·00919750
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,109 runs since 2021 (282 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.7% from 149. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.8% from 304.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,156 runs since 2017 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 256. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 145.
Progeny have won 11.6% of 1,737 runs since 2019 (287 horses). Strongest on Good going: 15.4% from 266. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 394. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.7% from 234. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.6% from 485.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 57 · newest first
The latest 50 of 57 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 9 September 2021 to 1 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Emilien Puillet-Roda's strike rate?
Emilien Puillet-Roda has won 8 of 56 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 14.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Emilien Puillet-Roda in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Emilien Puillet-Roda's Fair A/E?
1.98, from 55 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Emilien Puillet-Roda·SR 14.3%·A/E 1.98
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