What is A Baron's strike rate?

A Baron has won 24 of 283 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does A Baron do best at?

Deauville (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 92 runners (8.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for A Baron?

A Baron, with 190 runners since 2022 — 67% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (8.9%).

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is A Baron's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 283 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

A Baron

283 runners in the last 5 seasons · 50 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 7 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2022

24–283

Wins / Runs

8.5%

Strike rate

n=283

74 (26%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=283 · 0.83 incl. margin

−99.80

£1 level stake

n=283 at SP · −35.3%

£428k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.00). With a claiming rider up the record reads 20% (56 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 283 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance A Baron: 8.9% from 190 Claiming riders: 19.6%

The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 19.6% (n=56, Fair A/E 2.13). A Baron rides 67% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.9%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (13.2%, n=38) and over 1m2f – 1m4f (12.1%, n=99). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.9% over 34 runners, 5.6pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.3%−0.2

n=72 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −12.10

New recruits · first run for the yard

13%+4.5

n=23 · A/E 2.17 · £1 +6.60

Debutants · first career start

4.2%−4.3

n=24 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −19.80

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−8.5

n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−8.5

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

When favourite

20.8%

n=24 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −4.90

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

19.6%+11.1

n=56 · A/E 2.13 · £1 +24.90

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With claiming riders up 19.6% vs 8.5% · n=56

Off a 61-180-day break 2.9% vs 8.5% · n=34

Off a break of 180+ days 13.2% vs 8.5% · n=38

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 12.1% vs 8.5% · n=99

Over 6f – 7f 4.3% vs 8.5% · n=46

At Saint-Cloud 5.7% vs 8.5% · n=53

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 129 11 8.5% −55.10

Good to Soft 58 5 8.6% −7.30

Soft 57 6 10.5% −24.70

Good 20 1 5% −9.10

Heavy 18 1 5.6% −2.60

Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Deauville (AW) 92 8 8.7% −29.50

Saint-Cloud 53 3 5.7% −15.30

Chantilly (FR) 46 4 8.7% −26.90

Longchamp (FR) 45 3 6.7% −17.00

Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) 12 2 16.7% +0.50

Saint-Malo (FR) 6 1 16.7% −3.00

Vichy (FR) 5 0 0% −5.00

Craon (FR) 4 0 0% −4.00

La Teste De Buch (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

Fontainebleau (FR) 3 2 66.7% +10.90

Dieppe (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Le Mans (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Chateaubriant (FR) 2 1 50% +4.50

Angers (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Senonnes-Pouance (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 23 2 8.7% −12.00

Class 3 12 2 16.7% −1.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 26 5 19.2% 0.89 −6.90

2nd–3rd fav 60 11 18.3% 1.35 +8.00

4th–6th fav 64 4 6.3% 0.75 −21.30

7th+ in betting 133 4 3% 0.82 −79.60

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Young Man (FR)from Mlle A Budka 25 4 12 15 Jun 26

Gaillard (FR)from Mme Y Vollmer 20 2 4 1 Oct 26

Watt Ohm (FR) 19 3 10 19 Aug 26

Cream Ice (GB)from F Vermeulen 16 1 2 27 Dec 24

Joliepierre (FR) 15 2 5 4 Sep 26

Over The Clouds (FR) 11 2 3 11 Jun 26

Sommerblau (FR) 10 1 2 14 May 26

Wardama (FR)from T Poche 8 0 0 7 Sep 26

Shark Samurai (IRE)from C Escuder 7 1 1 13 Feb 26

Drapeau Blanc (FR) 7 0 0 22 Jan 26

Celtic Aryaan (FR)from C Plisson · then E Libaud 7 1 5 12 Jun 25

Pic Sylver (FR)from S Kobayashi 7 0 1 1 Jun 23

All 50 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 50 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J-P Dubois (3) and P De Chevigny (2); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for E Libaud (2); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

114149031514812411

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderA Baron

67% of all rides
8.9% SR · A/E 1.09

RiderRWSR£1

A Baron 190 17 8.9% −43.80

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

Archived wins

£438k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 7 wins

Young Man (FR) — Prix des Pistes (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Chantilly (FR) · Mar 2024

£11,739

Sommerblau (FR) — Prix de Saint-Sauveur-le-Vicomte (Handicap) (3yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Dec 2025

£11,116

Pannetone (FR) — Prix de l'Aigle (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Jan 2023

£11,062

Notable horses

Young Man (FR) Watt Ohm (FR) Gaillard (FR) Joliepierre (FR) Over The Clouds (FR) Mystic (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dabirsim (FR) 14% · 6–43

Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,127 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 254. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 142.

Recoletos (FR) 10% · 2–20

Progeny have won 8.9% of 786 runs since 2008 (110 horses).

Kamsin (GER) 15.8% · 3–19

Progeny have won 9.7% of 839 runs since 2008 (110 horses).

Sommerabend (GB) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,181 runs since 2008 (133 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.5% from 105.

Territories (IRE) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,601 runs since 2008 (348 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 13.3% from 533.

Bathyrhon (GER) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 12.3% of 1,165 runs since 2008 (185 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 291 · newest first

The latest 50 of 291 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 May 2021 to 13 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Oct 26 Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR) Guardian (GER)J: Axel Baron Prix Yves Priouzeau9.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 17/2

05 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Orion Rock (FR)J: P Cheyer Prix Du PeveleClass 4 · 12.5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 11/1

01 Oct 26 Argentan (FR) Gaillard (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix De LongchampClass 4 · 6.5f · Good · 9 ran 8th 9/1

28 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Allure (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix Spie (Prix Claude De Langle)Class 2 · 15f · Very Soft · 7 ran 7th 33/1

28 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Grey Reign (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix Lesieur (Prix Du Chene)12f · Very Soft · 12 ran 6th 8/1

27 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Piano Bar (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix Equidia (Prix De Parislongchamp)Class 4 · 6.5f · Very Soft · 13 ran 8th 12/1

21 Sep 26 Angers (FR) Guardian (GER)J: Axel Baron Prix Mondial Du Lion (Prix Du Chateau Du Roi De Pologne)10.5f · Good · 13 ran 10th 22/1

20 Sep 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Gaillard (FR)J: Maximilien Justum Prix De L'afasec (Prix De La Grotte Aux Cristaux)7f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 5th 16/1

15 Sep 26 Lyon Parilly (FR) Kata Tjuta (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix Des Gentianes8f · Heavy · 11 ran 6th 40/1

11 Sep 26 Le Mans (FR) Grey Reign (FR)J: Mme Marie Velon Prix De La Societe Des Courses De La Chartre-sur-le-loir9.5f · Soft · 12 ran 2nd 7/2

11 Sep 26 Le Mans (FR) Piano Bar (FR)J: Arnaud Bourgeais Prix De Saint-saturninClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 9th 33/1

11 Sep 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Your My Heart (FR)J: Mme Coralie Pacaut Prix Fiterari12.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 9th 25/1

07 Sep 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Wardama (FR)J: Christopher Grosbois Prix Des LandesClass 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 6th 14/1

05 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Altazia As (FR)J: Mme Astrid Peltier Prix Aktem - Prix Marquise D'andigne - Challenge France SireClass 4 · 8f · Heavy · 11 ran 7th 4/1

04 Sep 26 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Gaillard (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix De La Baie De BourgneufClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 100/30C

04 Sep 26 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Joliepierre (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix Mondial Du Lion - Credit Mutuel 2026 (Prix De L'Arc Atlantique)Class 4 · 15f · Soft · 16 ran 12th 20/1

01 Sep 26 Deauville (FR) Kata Tjuta (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix De Montpensier6f · Good · 7 ran 6th 16/1

28 Aug 26 Saint-Malo (FR) Guardian (GER)J: Axel Baron Prix Des Vans Mtm (Prix Felix Guibert)Class 3 · 12.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 40/1

28 Aug 26 Saint-Malo (FR) Piano Bar (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix Georges CreisClass 4 · 9f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 33/1

28 Aug 26 Saint-Malo (FR) Grey Reign (FR)J: Axel Baron Prix Association Des Courses De Nantes (Prix Julien Brossais)9f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is A Baron's strike rate?: A Baron has won 24 of 283 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does A Baron do best at?: Deauville (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 92 runners (8.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for A Baron?: A Baron, with 190 runners since 2022 — 67% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (8.9%).
Is A Baron in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is A Baron's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 283 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.