Kylie Manser
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). First rides on a horse are a strength: 10% on the first captured pairing (74 rides).
It is weakest at Lingfield (AW) (0% over 32 rides) — the widest gap in the record. First rides on a horse have been a positive signal at 9.5% (n=74, Fair A/E 1.49). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 3.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.63 and −72.50 to a £1 stake over 189 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Gay Kelleway supplied 37% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (2.4% vs 5.8%, A/E 0.31). The rider also read well over 1m2f – 1m4f (10.3%, n=87). The record read poorly over 6f – 7f — 2.7% over 75 rides, 3.1pts below the baseline.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.8% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 357 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 357 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 21 February 2005 to 28 June 2011.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Kylie Manser's strike rate?
- Kylie Manser has won 13 of 223 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Kylie Manser do best at?
- Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 36 rides (5.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Kylie Manser ride most for?
- Gay Kelleway, with 83 rides since 2008 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (2.4%).
- What is Kylie Manser's Fair A/E?
- 0.93, from 219 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.