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Trainer profile

Noel Chance

404 runners in the lifetime window · 70 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner May 2013
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
33–404
Wins / Runs
8.2%
Strike rate
n=404
98 (24%)
Placed
0.88
Fair A/E
n=404 · 0.75 incl. margin
−146.84
£1 level stake
n=404 at SP · −36.3%
£232k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 70 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 13% off breaks of two months or more (93 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 404 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Jan–Feb Fresh horses: 12.9% William Kennedy: 3.4% from 89 Claiming riders: 8.8%
The read

The record is strongest at Lingfield (AW) (16.2%, n=37), clear of the yard's 8.2% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 12.9% (n=93, Fair A/E 1.64). William Kennedy rode 22% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (3.4% vs 8.2%, A/E 0.39). The yard also read well off a 61-180-day break (19.4%, n=36) and on Standard (AW) going (12.2%, n=98). The stable star of the record was Mister New York (USA) — 7 wins from 44 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
12.9%+4.7
n=93 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +11.46
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
6.3%−1.9
n=32 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −24.12
First-time headgear · true-first definition
12.5%+4.3
n=8 · A/E 1.76 · £1 +7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
21.4%
n=28 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −9.56
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.8%+0.6
n=68 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −25.67
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.2
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 29.4% vs 8.2% · n=34
Off a 61-180-day break 19.4% vs 8.2% · n=36
With Richard Johnson 14.9% vs 8.2% · n=87
At Lingfield (AW) 16.2% vs 8.2% · n=37
With William Kennedy 3.4% vs 8.2% · n=89
On Standard (AW) going 12.2% vs 8.2% · n=98
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 173 12 6.9% −68.18
Flat 91 9 9.9% −13.25
Chase 75 6 8% −42.17
NH Flat 65 6 9.2% −23.24

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft 99 5 5.1% −71.00
Standard (AW) 98 12 12.2% +10.75
Soft 81 6 7.4% −21.74
Good 79 8 10.1% −23.62
Heavy 32 2 6.3% −26.23
Good to Firm 15 0 0% −15.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW) 37 6 16.2% +14.75
Wolverhampton (AW) 27 3 11.1% −3.00
Plumpton 27 3 11.1% −19.68
Newbury 25 1 4% −4.00
Kempton (AW) 24 2 8.3% +6.00
Fontwell 21 0 0% −21.00
Folkestone 16 2 12.5% −5.50
Fakenham 15 4 26.7% −1.74
Sandown 15 1 6.7% −8.00
Chepstow 12 0 0% −12.00
Stratford 12 2 16.7% +14.00
Huntingdon 12 0 0% −12.00
Wincanton 11 0 0% −11.00
Worcester 11 0 0% −11.00
Warwick 11 0 0% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 160 16 10% −35.06
Class 3 85 8 9.4% −38.29
Class 6 73 4 5.5% −25.12
Class 5 58 3 5.2% −36.37
Class 2 14 2 14.3% +2.00
Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00
Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 34 7 20.6% 0.71 −11.56
2nd–3rd fav 77 10 13% 0.83 −32.78
4th–6th fav 139 13 9.4% 1.23 +4.50
7th+ in betting 154 3 1.9% 0.58 −107.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
84.3% completed · 248 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 75 73.3% 5 6 9 0 0
Hurdle 173 89% 0 3 15 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Mister New York (USA) 41 7 14 7 Apr 11
Brackloon High (IRE)then Brendan Powell 18 6 10 16 Feb 13
Gores Island (IRE)then Gary Moore 17 2 6 12 May 13
Fabulous Fred (IRE) 17 1 8 23 Apr 13
Athwaab (GB)from Tim McCarthy · then Simon Hodgson 17 1 3 27 Mar 13
Bariolo (FR)from F Chappet 13 1 2 31 Dec 11
Divine Gift (GB)from Kevin Ryan 13 2 6 24 Oct 09
Baby Car (FR) 12 0 2 4 Jun 11
Turbulance (IRE)then Bernard Llewellyn 11 1 4 17 Jan 09
Saint Eric (FR) 11 0 0 2 Jan 09
Outside The Box (GB)from C Hewitt · then Simon Earle 10 1 2 11 Mar 11
Slew Charm (FR)then Sarah Dawson 10 0 3 1 Jan 11
The 60 most-raced of 70 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mrs L C Taylor (2) and Tom Dascombe (2); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.

21 have since run for another yard; 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
15132360017101076
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderWilliam Kennedy
22% of all rides
3.4% SR · A/E 0.39
RiderRWSR£1
William Kennedy 89 3 3.4% −61.00
Richard Johnson 87 13 14.9% −5.92
Tom Siddall 41 2 4.9% −23.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
65
Archived wins
£627k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 12 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
River City (IRE) — Betfred Celebration Chase (Grade 2) Sandown · Apr 2006 · Class 1
£57,020
Mendo (GB) — Browne's Gazette Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham · Nov 2007 · Class 3
£15,658
Brackloon High (IRE) — William Hill - Download The App Handicap Chase Kempton · Jan 2013 · Class 2
£11,574
Notable horses
Mister New York (USA) Brackloon High (IRE) Aux Le Bahnn (IRE) Mendo (GB) Lorikeet (GB) First Feerie (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Beneficial (GB) 14% · 6–43
Progeny have won 10.5% of 17,043 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Forest Wildcat (USA) 17.1% · 7–41
Progeny have won 6% of 317 runs since 2008 (22 horses).
Bob Back (USA) 26.1% · 6–23
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Cadeaux Genereux (GB) 5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,919 runs since 2008 (203 horses).
Sleeping Car (FR) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 9.3% of 1,054 runs since 2008 (137 horses).
Groom Dancer (USA) 15.4% · 2–13
Progeny have won 7% of 1,020 runs since 2008 (94 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 721 · newest first

The latest 50 of 721 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 January 2005 to 12 May 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 May 13 Plumpton Gores Island (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Tahlia And Frankie's Racing Excellence Conditional Jockeys' Training Series Final Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20.5f · Good · 10 ran 7th 14/1
07 May 13 Fakenham Tallevu (IRE)J: Jeremiah McGrath Countryside Alliance Selling HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 11/1
26 Apr 13 Plumpton Gores Island (IRE)J: Jeremiah McGrath Anise Catering At Plumpton Racecourse Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 14/1
23 Apr 13 Ffos Las Fabulous Fred (IRE)J: Richard Johnson Lindley Group Event Caterers Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 5 ran PU 3/1
21 Apr 13 Wincanton Tallevu (IRE)J: Jeremiah McGrath 32RedBingo.com Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 20/1
12 Apr 13 Chepstow Gores Island (IRE)J: Jeremiah McGrath coral.co.uk Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 28/1
04 Apr 13 Taunton I'm A College Boy (IRE)J: Dougie Costello Bet Totepool On All Uk Racing Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 12th 20/1
01 Apr 13 Fakenham Fabulous Fred (IRE)J: Jeremiah McGrath David Keith Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 13/2
01 Apr 13 Plumpton Gores Island (IRE)J: William Kennedy Your Favourite Pool Bets At totepool.com Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran F 8/1
27 Mar 13 Lingfield (AW) Athwaab (GB)J: Graham Lee Europa Quality Print Selling StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 12/1
18 Mar 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Athwaab (GB)J: Joe Fanning 32RedPoker.com Selling StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 3 ran 2nd 16/1
05 Mar 13 Exeter I'm So Special (IRE)J: Jeremiah McGrath British Stallion Studs Supporting British Racing E.b.f. Mares' 'national Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Good · 12 ran PU 66/1
01 Mar 13 Newbury Gores Island (IRE)J: Jeremiah McGrath Rickety Bridge Handicap Chase (In Aid Of West Berkshire Mencap)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran UR 15/2
01 Mar 13 Newbury Fabulous Fred (IRE)J: Richard Johnson Zenergi Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 22.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 33/1
25 Feb 13 Kempton (AW) Athwaab (GB)J: Andrea Atzeni Get The Betvictor App Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 7/1
20 Feb 13 Lingfield (AW) Athwaab (GB)J: Graham Lee Cyprium Bar At Marriott Lingfield HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1
17 Feb 13 Ffos Las Fabulous Fred (IRE)J: Richard Johnson Sun Trade Windows Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Heavy · 9 ran PU 10/1
16 Feb 13 Ascot Brackloon High (IRE)J: Jeremiah McGrath Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Chase (Listed Handicap)Class 1 · 24f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 9/1
16 Feb 13 Wincanton I'm So Special (IRE)J: William Kennedy Bathwick Tyres E.B.F. Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 11 ran 8th 50/1
16 Feb 13 Wincanton I'm A College Boy (IRE)J: William Kennedy Bathwick Tyres Salisbury Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 11 ran 11th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Noel Chance's strike rate?
Noel Chance has won 33 of 404 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Noel Chance do best at?
Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 37 runners (16.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Noel Chance?
William Kennedy, with 89 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (3.4%).
What is Noel Chance's Fair A/E?
0.88, from 404 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).