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Jockey profile

Marc Nobili

157 rides in the last 5 seasons · 65 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride May 2025 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
4–157
Wins / Runs
2.5%
Strike rate
n=157
21 (13%)
Placed
0.55
Fair A/E
n=157 · 0.46 incl. margin
−111.60
£1 level stake
n=157 at SP · −71.1%
£118k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.55). Rides mostly for Mme J Hendriks — 56% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 157 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Mme J Hendriks: 3.4% from 88
The read

The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.62 and −75.20 to a £1 stake over 109 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mme J Hendriks supplies 56% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (3.4%, A/E 0.70). The rider also reads well off a 15-30-day break (7.5%, n=40). The market has consistently overbet the rider on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.82 across 101 rides (4% strike, −55.60 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The standout partner of the record: Panirad (FR) — 5 wins from 25 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−2.5
n=49 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −49.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.5
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−2.5
n=64 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −64.00
When favourite
20%
n=5 · A/E 1.00 · £1 +0.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
2.8%+0.3
n=109 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −75.20
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 7.5% vs 2.5% · n=40
On first rides for the horse 0% vs 2.5% · n=49
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 2.5% · n=35
On Standard (AW) going 4% vs 2.5% · n=101 · A/E 0.82
Over 1m – 1m1f 3.6% vs 2.5% · n=84 · A/E 0.82
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 101 4 4% −55.60
Good to Soft 24 0 0% −24.00
Soft 22 0 0% −22.00
Good 5 0 0% −5.00
Heavy 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR) 92 4 4.3% −46.60
Deauville (FR) 28 0 0% −28.00
Saint-Cloud (FR) 24 0 0% −24.00
Longchamp (FR) 12 0 0% −12.00
Le Croise-Laroche (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 1 20% 1.00 +0.00
2nd–3rd fav 9 0 0% 0.00 −9.00
4th–6th fav 27 2 7.4% 0.92 +0.80
7th+ in betting 116 1 0.9% 0.33 −103.40
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Baylagan (FR) 17 2 4 14 Apr 25
Kenor (FR) 12 0 4 26 Oct 24
Sunkawakan (FR) 10 1 2 1 Mar 24
Angel Dust (FR) 8 0 4 9 May 25
Roberto Mount (GB) 8 1 2 30 Apr 23
Bay View (IRE) 6 0 2 12 Jul 22
Orpanama Davis (FR) 5 0 1 3 Apr 25
Rouvray (GB) 5 0 0 19 Nov 24
Sand Girl (IRE) 4 0 0 23 Feb 24
Fawkes (FR) 4 0 0 22 Dec 23
Detesnouvelles (FR) 3 0 1 28 Oct 24
Grace Of Cliffs (FR) 3 0 1 30 Dec 23
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 65 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
007400000085
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardMme J Hendriks
56% of all rides
3.4% SR · A/E 0.70
TrainerRWSR£1
Mme J Hendriks 88 3 3.4% −55.20
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
31
Archived wins
£705k
Prize money
2021
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Magnentius (FR) — Prix d'Auxerre (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Jul 2018
£23,009
Roberto Mount (GB) — Prix de la Piste des Lions (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Chantilly (FR) · Dec 2022
£21,008
Roberto Mount (GB) — Prix du Carre de Dressage (Handicap) (3yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Chantilly (FR) · Nov 2020
£16,229
Notable horses
Panirad (FR) Baylagan (FR) Sunkawakan (FR) Roberto Mount (GB) Magnentius (FR) Bal De Rio (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Toronado (IRE) 11.1% · 2–18
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,906 runs since 2018 (417 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.5% from 199. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.3% from 144.
Canford Cliffs (IRE) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,091 runs since 2015 (314 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 263.
Goken (FR) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,097 runs since 2020 (246 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.7% from 245. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15% from 200.
Le Havre (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 12.4% of 5,883 runs since 2013 (750 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.5% from 296.
Lethal Force (IRE) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,269 runs since 2017 (268 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.1% from 358.
Territories (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,634 runs since 2020 (350 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 13.7% from 541.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 653 · newest first

The latest 50 of 653 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 10 April 2005 to 9 May 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
09 May 25 Saint-Cloud (FR) Friday I'm In Love (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix de l'Armorique (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf)6f · Good · 15 ran 14th 70/1
09 May 25 Saint-Cloud (FR) Angel Dust (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix de la Toulzanie (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf)8f · Good · 16 ran 4th 20/1
14 Apr 25 Chantilly (FR) Baylagan (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix du Pave de la Biche (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 15/1
03 Apr 25 Chantilly (FR) Friday I'm In Love (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix de la Maison des Officiers (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 124/1
03 Apr 25 Chantilly (FR) Orpanama Davis (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix de l'Hotel Lovenjoul (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 59/10
31 Mar 25 Chantilly (FR) Cala Moli (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix du Noyer (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 73/1
21 Mar 25 Le Croise-Laroche (FR) Bohemos (FR)T: Mme A Budka Prix Robert Diers (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf)9f · Good · 14 ran 5th 10/1
16 Mar 25 Saint-Cloud (FR) Zagor (FR)T: Hiroo Shimizu Prix Francois Mathet () (3yo) (Turf)10.5f · Very Soft · 7 ran 7th 28/1
09 Mar 25 Chantilly (FR) Cala Moli (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix Esso (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 15th 90/1
04 Mar 25 Chantilly (FR) Sakurasaku (FR)T: Hiroo Shimizu Prix de la Broutillerie (Maiden) (3yo Colts & Geldings) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 61/1
13 Feb 25 Chantilly (FR) Sakurasaku (FR)T: Hiroo Shimizu Prix du Carrefour du Clos-la-Barre (Maiden) (3yo Colts & Geldings) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 25/1
07 Feb 25 Chantilly (FR) Jerryafta (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix du Rond du Manege (Maiden) (Unraced 3yo Colts & Geldings) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 70/1
19 Nov 24 Chantilly (FR) Rouvray (GB)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix du Plan d'Eau du Canada (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 15 ran 15th 100/1
19 Nov 24 Chantilly (FR) Baylagan (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix de l'Horloge Astronomique (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 17 ran 17th 84/1
29 Oct 24 Chantilly (FR) Baylagan (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix de la Route du Dindon (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 17 ran 15th 31/1
28 Oct 24 Chantilly (FR) La Desinence (FR)T: J Leroy Prix Bois de Bonnet (Handicap) (3yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)7f · Standard · 16 ran 8th 17/1
28 Oct 24 Chantilly (FR) Detesnouvelles (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix de la Foret de Coye (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)16f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 13/1
26 Oct 24 Chantilly (FR) Kenor (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix de Saint-Imier (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf)11f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 73/10
03 Sep 24 Chantilly (FR) Yawara (FR)T: Hiroo Shimizu Prix de la Cathedrale de Beauvais (Handicap) (3yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 20/1
18 Aug 24 Deauville (FR) Detesnouvelles (FR)T: Mme J Hendriks Sumbe Prix de Saint-Symphorien (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 17/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Marc Nobili's strike rate?
Marc Nobili has won 4 of 157 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 2.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Marc Nobili do best at?
Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 4 wins from 92 rides (4.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Marc Nobili ride most for?
Mme J Hendriks, with 88 rides since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (3.4%).
What is Marc Nobili's Fair A/E?
0.55, from 157 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).