Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
5.9%−4.1
n=17 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −12.80
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
33.3%+23.3
n=3 · A/E 4.13 · £1 +23.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
11.1%+1.1
n=18 · A/E 1.05 · £1 +12.20
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−10.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat11218.2%+19.20
NH Flat900%−9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft1100%−11.00
Heavy5120%−0.80
Good to Soft4125%+22.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork5120%−0.80
Punchestown3133.3%+23.00
Naas200%−2.00
Navan200%−2.00
Ballinrobe100%−1.00
Clonmel100%−1.00
Fairyhouse100%−1.00
Galway100%−1.00
Leopardstown100%−1.00
Tramore100%−1.00
Wexford100%−1.00
Tipperary100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav9111.1%0.71−4.80
4th–6th fav7114.3%1.83+19.00
7th+ in betting300%0.00−3.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m15213.3%+15.20
2m1f – 2m4f500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202212216.7%+18.20
2023800%−8.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps200%−2.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners800%−8.00
11-13 runners4250%+26.20
14-16 runners400%−4.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 19 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Tag Man (IRE) — Jp & M Doyle Celebrating 70 Years In Business (c & G) Flat Race Punchestown · Apr 2022
£10,325
Joys Island (IRE) — Slievenamon Handicap Hurdle (74-109) Clonmel · May 2007
Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,815 runs since 2008 (679 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 13.1% of 1,653 runs since 2008 (219 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 431.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 415 · newest first
The latest 50 of 415 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 5 February 2005 to 25 April 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr D Roche's strike rate?
Mr D Roche has won 2 of 20 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 rides, so read the count before the percentage.
Mr D Roche·SR 10%·A/E 0.84
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy