Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.72).
Deterministic profile computed from 147 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance22.6% when favouriteRides the favourite in 21% of races
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 9.3% (n=54, Fair A/E 0.59). The rider also reads well in Class 3 (17.6%, n=34). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 7.8% over 64 rides, 5.1pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix Morgex at Auteuil (FR) (Nov 2018, £57,743). The standout partner of the record: Dolphin Square (IRE) — 10 wins from 23 rides together.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
21.1%+8.2
n=19 · A/E 1.00 · £1 +4.10
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
24%+11.1
n=25 · A/E 1.02 · £1 +38.77
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
9.3%−3.6
n=54 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −14.86
When favourite
22.6%
n=31 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −17.12
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
12.5%−0.4
n=72 · A/E 0.82 · £1 +11.90
Big fields · 14+ runners
4.5%−8.4
n=22 · A/E 0.94 · £1 +7.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−12.9
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f7.8% vs 12.9% · n=64
In Class 317.6% vs 12.9% · n=34
Over 2m5f – 3m15.4% vs 12.9% · n=52
On Soft going15.2% vs 12.9% · n=46
Off a 15-30-day break10.5% vs 12.9% · n=38
In Hurdle races11.8% vs 12.9% · n=68 · A/E 0.81
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle68811.8%+10.54
Chase67913.4%−39.71
NH Flat12216.7%−5.60
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft46715.2%+26.17
Good to Soft41512.2%−26.43
Good34411.8%−22.32
Heavy26311.5%−12.19
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cheltenham1616.3%+13.00
Newbury12216.7%−6.40
Sandown11218.2%+15.00
Fontwell8112.5%−5.00
Ascot8225%+0.50
Aintree600%−6.00
Lingfield5240%+0.91
Stratford500%−5.00
Auteuil (FR)5120%+4.70
Punchestown500%−5.00
Ludlow5240%+4.75
Chepstow4125%−1.80
Leicester4125%−2.27
Kempton400%−4.00
Doncaster4250%−0.89
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 439512.8%−15.05
Class 334617.6%−13.46
Class 52015%−18.27
Class 11900%−19.00
Class 219210.5%+29.00
Class 67457.1%+1.31
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite33824.2%0.56−16.92
2nd–3rd fav39615.4%0.80−13.55
4th–6th fav4037.5%0.85−17.30
7th+ in betting3525.7%1.53+13.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f6457.8%−44.71
2m5f – 3m52815.4%+21.14
1m5f – 2m21419%−5.87
Over 3m10220%−5.33
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202242819%+22.56
20232528%−18.80
20245147.8%−26.80
202529517.2%−11.73
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7579.3%−1.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners49918.4%−11.55
8-10 runners3725.4%−24.50
11-13 runners24312.5%+0.44
2-4 runners15426.7%−6.16
17+ runners1300%−13.00
14-16 runners9111.1%+20.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 29 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1515190700··01121
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
78
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£842k
Prize money
2019
Best season · 21 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Cat Tiger (FR) — Prix Morgex (Chase) (4yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Nov 2018 · Grade 3
£57,743
Lascar Du Mathan (FR) — Prix Ventriloque (Hurdle) (Conditions) (4yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Mar 2025
£20,909
Dolphin Square (IRE) — Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Newbury · Nov 2021 · Class 2
Progeny have won 11.7% of 317 runs since 2008 (49 horses).
Sunday Break (JPN)22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 9.6% of 1,123 runs since 2008 (155 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.7% from 220. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.6% from 231.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 404 · newest first
The latest 50 of 404 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 April 2007 to 30 May 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr David Maxwell's strike rate?
Mr David Maxwell has won 19 of 147 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr David Maxwell's Fair A/E?
0.72, from 147 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr David Maxwell·SR 12.9%·A/E 0.72
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