What is Paul Nicholls's strike rate?

Paul Nicholls has won 550 of 2,533 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 21.7% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Nicholls do best at?

Taunton by strike rate: 61 wins from 197 runners (31%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Nicholls?

Harry Cobden, with 1,368 runners since 2022 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 325 (23.8%).

Is Paul Nicholls in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Paul Nicholls's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 2,527 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Nicholls

2,533 runners in the last 5 seasons · 347 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 9.3% of 495 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 28 Oct 2026.

Last runner 6 days ago 99% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

550–2,533

Wins / Runs

21.7%

Strike rate

n=2,533

1,061 (42%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=2,527 · 0.91 incl. margin

−436.51

£1 level stake

n=2,531 at SP · −17.2%

£13.0m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

17.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 510 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 22% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.04). Debutants are a strength: 29% on first career starts (158 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,533 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jul 45.2% when favourite Harry Cobden: 23.8% from 1,368 New recruits: 28.6% Sends off the favourite in 26% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Taunton (31%, n=197) and Newton Abbot (30.2%, n=149) — all clear of the yard's 21.7% baseline. It is weakest at Cheltenham (9.8% over 183 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants strike at 29.1% (n=158, Fair A/E 1.11), but a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 17.5% (n=40, Fair A/E 1.07). A horse in first-time headgear are the standout value angle: 23.1% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.22 and +2.57 to a £1 stake over 134 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Harry Cobden rides 54% of the entries and edges the yard's average (23.8% vs 21.7%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (41.7%, n=36). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 15.2% over 446 runners, 6.5pts below the baseline. 361 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the John Smith's Grand National Chase at Aintree (Apr 2012, £547,268). The stable star of the record: Big Buck's (FR) — 21 wins from 27 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 21.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

18.7%−3.0

n=787 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −183.77

New recruits · first run for the yard

28.6%+6.9

n=56 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −19.77

Debutants · first career start

29.1%+7.4

n=158 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −24.85

First-time headgear · true-first definition

23.1%+1.4

n=134 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +2.57

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

17.5%−4.2

n=40 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −12.59

When favourite

45.2%

n=662 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −23.34

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

20.9%−0.8

n=535 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −30.09

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

18.3%−3.4

n=349 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −92.86

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 21.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good to Firm going 41.7% vs 21.7% · n=36

At Cheltenham 9.8% vs 21.7% · n=183

At Taunton 31% vs 21.7% · n=197

At Newton Abbot 30.2% vs 21.7% · n=149

At Kempton 13.4% vs 21.7% · n=157

In Class 2 15.2% vs 21.7% · n=446

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,348 302 22.4% −168.48

Chase 923 194 21% −170.05

NH Flat 242 54 22.3% −77.98

Flat 20 0 0% −20.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 932 219 23.5% −178.41

Good to Soft 812 162 20% −143.88

Soft 561 111 19.8% −77.39

Heavy 184 43 23.4% −37.12

Good to Firm 36 15 41.7% +8.29

Standard (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wincanton 224 55 24.6% −54.17

Taunton 197 61 31% +5.93

Newbury 190 32 16.8% −64.82

Chepstow 184 39 21.2% −63.19

Cheltenham 183 18 9.8% −54.77

Kempton 157 21 13.4% −83.98

Sandown 157 30 19.1% −10.97

Newton Abbot 149 45 30.2% −26.55

Ascot 129 24 18.6% +14.98

Exeter 115 33 28.7% −23.24

Aintree 95 15 15.8% −17.02

Plumpton 73 21 28.8% +23.34

Hereford 54 16 29.6% −1.20

Fontwell 53 16 30.2% +2.62

Warwick 50 8 16% −19.58

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 719 196 27.3% −142.26

Class 3 591 140 23.7% −85.14

Class 1 510 79 15.5% −120.41

Class 2 446 68 15.2% −44.15

Class 5 258 64 24.8% −42.53

Class 6 9 3 33.3% −2.02

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 732 315 43% 1.09 −38.30

2nd–3rd fav 879 169 19.2% 0.98 −148.71

4th–6th fav 616 50 8.1% 0.90 −212.50

7th+ in betting 304 14 4.6% 1.12 −37.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.9% completed · 2,271 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 923 78.3% 32 10 156 2 0

Hurdle 1,348 89.5% 16 7 117 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Afadil (FR)from F-H Graffard 31 4 10 4 May 26

Rubaud (FR)from P Decouz 27 11 13 22 Oct 26

Il Ridoto (FR)from H De Lageneste & G Macaire 26 2 7 17 Apr 26

Irish Hill (GER)from P Schiergen 26 6 14 3 Nov 25

Outlaw Peter (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon 24 8 15 15 Apr 26

Centara (IRE) 22 8 8 27 Aug 26

Hitman (FR) 22 2 10 10 Apr 26

Fame And Fun (IRE)then Peter & Michael Bowen 22 3 8 31 Oct 24

Huelgoat (FR)from Mme A-S Pacault 22 7 14 24 Sep 24

Fasol (GB)from C Ferland 21 3 10 9 Oct 26

Him Malaya (FR)then M Seror 21 2 8 8 Jan 26

Sans Bruit (FR)from D Cottin 20 3 6 18 Apr 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 347 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Francois Nicolle (3) and A Chaille-Chaille (2); 40 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

171920202826372528232621

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHarry Cobden

54% of all rides
23.8% SR · A/E 1.02

RiderRWSR£1

Harry Cobden 1,368 325 23.8% −281.38

Freddie Gingell 270 58 21.5% −38.96

Lorcan Williams 208 33 15.9% −61.23

Bryony Frost 140 27 19.3% −25.37

Miss Olive Nicholls 80 18 22.5% −9.40

Jay Tidball 78 16 20.5% −3.11

Angus Cheleda 66 12 18.2% +38.18

Freddie Keighley 47 9 19.1% +5.98

Ben Bromley 35 6 17.1% −9.78

Tom Buckley 32 6 18.8% −20.35

Mr David Maxwell 30 4 13.3% −17.02

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

2,932

Archived wins

361

Pattern / graded wins

£64.2m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 188 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Neptune Collonges (FR) — John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Aintree · Apr 2012 · Class 1

£547,268

Kauto Star (FR) — Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2009 · Class 1

£270,798

Denman (IRE) — totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2008 · Class 1

£268,279

Notable horses

Big Buck's (FR) Frodon (FR) Kauto Star (FR) Silviniaco Conti (FR) Denman (IRE) Black Corton (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kapgarde (FR) 16.7% · 35–210

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,617 runs since 2008 (724 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 26.5% · 27–102

Progeny have won 13.3% of 6,978 runs since 2008 (696 horses).

Martaline (GB) 25.8% · 23–89

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,345 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Saint Des Saints (FR) 15% · 12–80

Progeny have won 15.1% of 5,345 runs since 2008 (643 horses).

No Risk At All (FR) 16.4% · 12–73

Progeny have won 14.4% of 3,125 runs since 2008 (433 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.4% from 943.

Kayf Tara (GB) 27.1% · 19–70

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,743 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 12,857 · newest first

The latest 50 of 12,857 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 22 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Rubaud (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Panoramic Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 4th 15/2

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Havanotherguinness (GB)J: Lorcan Williams Sky Sports Racing Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 5/2

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Quebecois (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Dartmoor Magazine Intermediate Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 21f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 5/4J

15 Oct 26 Fontwell Inca De Lafayette (FR)J: Jay Tidball BETTING.BET New Betting Sites Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 2nd 7/2

14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Tutti Quanti (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Adept GRP Cabinets Novices' Steeple Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Soft · 4 ran 2nd 8/11F

14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Pourquoi Pas Papa (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies JCP Solicitors Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Soft · 5 ran 2nd 2/1F

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Too Many Acres (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Wasdell Group Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 13/2

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Stick To The Board (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Dragonbet Backing Welsh Racing Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 2nd 4/5F

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Treasure Planet (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 17/2

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Fasol (GB)J: Freddie Keighley LSL Racing Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 6th 5/1

28 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Kilnew Supreme (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 13/8F

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot It's A Breeze (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Devondale Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 5/1

14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Roadshow (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley Paxtons No1 Caseih Dealer Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 8th 14/1

14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Paddy De Pole (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 27f · Good · 3 ran 1st 15/8

07 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Jetty May (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Grandad Swales Happy 80th Birthday Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 5/1

27 Aug 26 Newton Abbot It's A Breeze (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Marilyn And Millie's Retirement Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 2nd 100/30

27 Aug 26 Newton Abbot Centara (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Md Elite Cleaning Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 3rd 9/2

26 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Paddy De Pole (IRE)J: Freddie Gingell Gary And Mavis Bird Family Raceday Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 23.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 10/1

22 Jul 26 Worcester Roadshow (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley Bathroom Studio Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 9th 18/1

19 Jul 26 Newton Abbot Byzantium (FR)J: Paddy Hanlon Zero To Exit Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 26.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 3rd 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Nicholls's strike rate?: Paul Nicholls has won 550 of 2,533 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 21.7% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Nicholls do best at?: Taunton by strike rate: 61 wins from 197 runners (31%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Nicholls?: Harry Cobden, with 1,368 runners since 2022 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 325 (23.8%).
Is Paul Nicholls in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paul Nicholls's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 2,527 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.