What is Paul Nicholls's strike rate?

Paul Nicholls has won 553 of 2,547 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 21.7% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Nicholls do best at?

Taunton by strike rate: 61 wins from 197 runners (31%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Nicholls?

Harry Cobden, with 1,370 runners since 2022 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 325 (23.7%).

Is Paul Nicholls in form?

In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 20%. That is in line with the baseline of 21.7% since 2022.

What is Paul Nicholls's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 2,541 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Nicholls

2,547 runners in the last 5 seasons · 348 individual horses

As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 9.5% of 507 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 1 Nov 2026.

Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 99% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

553–2,547

Wins / Runs

21.7%

Strike rate

n=2,547

1,067 (42%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=2,541 · 0.91 incl. margin

−433.13

£1 level stake

n=2,545 at SP · −17.0%

£13.1m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

17.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 510 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 22% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.04). Debutants are a strength: 30% on first career starts (159 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,547 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 1 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jul 45.2% when favourite Harry Cobden: 23.7% from 1,370 New recruits: 28.6% Sends off the favourite in 26% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Taunton (31%, n=197), clear of the yard's 21.7% baseline. It is weakest at Cheltenham (9.8% over 183 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants strike at 29.6% (n=159, Fair A/E 1.12), but a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 17.5% (n=40, Fair A/E 1.07). A horse in first-time headgear are the standout value angle: 23% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.21 and +1.57 to a £1 stake over 135 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Harry Cobden rides 54% of the entries and edges the yard's average (23.7% vs 21.7%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (40.5%, n=37). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 15.2% over 447 runners, 6.5pts below the baseline. 361 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the John Smith's Grand National Chase at Aintree (Apr 2012, £547,268). The stable star of the record: Big Buck's (FR) — 21 wins from 27 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 21.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

18.7%−3.0

n=798 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −179.77

New recruits · first run for the yard

28.6%+6.9

n=56 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −19.77

Debutants · first career start

29.6%+7.9

n=159 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −23.47

First-time headgear · true-first definition

23%+1.3

n=135 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +1.57

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

17.5%−4.2

n=40 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −12.59

When favourite

45.2%

n=664 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −22.96

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

21.3%−0.4

n=540 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −17.71

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

18.2%−3.5

n=351 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −94.86

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 21.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good to Firm going 40.5% vs 21.7% · n=37

At Cheltenham 9.8% vs 21.7% · n=183

At Taunton 31% vs 21.7% · n=197

At Kempton 13.4% vs 21.7% · n=157

With debutants 29.6% vs 21.7% · n=159

In Class 2 15.2% vs 21.7% · n=447

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,353 302 22.3% −173.48

Chase 931 196 21.1% −163.05

NH Flat 243 55 22.6% −76.60

Flat 20 0 0% −20.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 936 221 23.6% −167.41

Good to Soft 819 162 19.8% −150.88

Soft 561 111 19.8% −77.39

Heavy 186 44 23.7% −36.74

Good to Firm 37 15 40.5% +7.29

Standard (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wincanton 224 55 24.6% −54.17

Taunton 197 61 31% +5.93

Newbury 190 32 16.8% −64.82

Chepstow 184 39 21.2% −63.19

Cheltenham 183 18 9.8% −54.77

Kempton 157 21 13.4% −83.98

Sandown 157 30 19.1% −10.97

Newton Abbot 155 45 29% −32.55

Ascot 131 25 19.1% +16.98

Exeter 115 33 28.7% −23.24

Aintree 95 15 15.8% −17.02

Plumpton 73 21 28.8% +23.34

Hereford 54 16 29.6% −1.20

Fontwell 53 16 30.2% +2.62

Warwick 50 8 16% −19.58

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 723 196 27.1% −146.26

Class 3 596 141 23.7% −79.14

Class 1 513 80 15.6% −119.41

Class 2 447 68 15.2% −45.15

Class 5 259 65 25.1% −41.15

Class 6 9 3 33.3% −2.02

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 734 316 43.1% 1.09 −37.92

2nd–3rd fav 883 170 19.3% 0.99 −148.71

4th–6th fav 622 51 8.2% 0.91 −207.50

7th+ in betting 306 14 4.6% 1.11 −39.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85% completed · 2,284 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 931 78.4% 32 10 157 2 0

Hurdle 1,353 89.5% 16 7 117 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Afadil (FR)from F-H Graffard 31 4 10 4 May 26

Rubaud (FR)from P Decouz 27 11 13 22 Oct 26

Il Ridoto (FR)from H De Lageneste & G Macaire 26 2 7 17 Apr 26

Irish Hill (GER)from P Schiergen 26 6 14 3 Nov 25

Outlaw Peter (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon 24 8 15 15 Apr 26

Hitman (FR) 23 2 10 31 Oct 26

Centara (IRE) 23 8 8 28 Oct 26

Fasol (GB)from C Ferland 22 3 11 31 Oct 26

Fame And Fun (IRE)then Peter & Michael Bowen 22 3 8 31 Oct 24

Huelgoat (FR)from Mme A-S Pacault 22 7 14 24 Sep 24

Him Malaya (FR)then M Seror 21 2 8 8 Jan 26

Sans Bruit (FR)from D Cottin 20 3 6 18 Apr 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 348 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Francois Nicolle (3) and A Chaille-Chaille (2); 40 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard, most often for Dan Skelton (2); 53 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

3 from 15 20% · −1.7pts vs baseline

Last 14 days20%

5-season base21.7%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

171920202826372528232621

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHarry Cobden

54% of all rides
23.7% SR · A/E 1.02

RiderRWSR£1

Harry Cobden 1,370 325 23.7% −283.38

Freddie Gingell 275 58 21.1% −43.96

Lorcan Williams 208 33 15.9% −61.23

Bryony Frost 140 27 19.3% −25.37

Jay Tidball 80 17 21.3% +5.89

Miss Olive Nicholls 80 18 22.5% −9.40

Angus Cheleda 66 12 18.2% +38.18

Freddie Keighley 49 10 20.4% +6.36

Ben Bromley 35 6 17.1% −9.78

Tom Buckley 32 6 18.8% −20.35

Mr David Maxwell 30 4 13.3% −17.02

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

2,935

Archived wins

361

Pattern / graded wins

£64.2m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 188 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Neptune Collonges (FR) — John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Aintree · Apr 2012 · Class 1

£547,268

Kauto Star (FR) — Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2009 · Class 1

£270,798

Denman (IRE) — totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2008 · Class 1

£268,279

Notable horses

Big Buck's (FR) Frodon (FR) Kauto Star (FR) Silviniaco Conti (FR) Denman (IRE) Black Corton (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kapgarde (FR) 16.7% · 35–210

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,625 runs since 2008 (725 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 26% · 27–104

Progeny have won 13.3% of 7,001 runs since 2008 (699 horses).

Martaline (GB) 25.8% · 23–89

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,346 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Saint Des Saints (FR) 15% · 12–80

Progeny have won 15% of 5,352 runs since 2008 (643 horses).

No Risk At All (FR) 16.4% · 12–73

Progeny have won 14.4% of 3,139 runs since 2008 (438 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.5% from 947.

Kayf Tara (GB) 27.1% · 19–70

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,748 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 12,871 · newest first

The latest 50 of 12,871 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Oct 26 Ascot Fasol (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Lavazza Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 4th 12/1

31 Oct 26 Wetherby Twinjets (IRE)J: Harry Cobden Bet365 Charlie Hall Steeple Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good · 6 ran PU 13/2

31 Oct 26 Wetherby Hitman (FR)J: Freddie Gingell Bet365 Charlie Hall Steeple Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 5th 20/1

31 Oct 26 Ascot Viroflay (FR)J: Mr Lucas Murphy Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 1st 3/1

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Toothless (FR)J: Jay Tidball Dai Walters Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good · 6 ran 1st 10/1

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Verney Fox (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley Walters Group National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional & Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Heavy · 6 ran 1st 11/8F

29 Oct 26 Stratford Go West (IRE)J: Freddie Gingell Happy Birthday Penny Tyacke Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 9/1

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las The Final Word (IRE)J: Harry Cobden bettingsites.co.uk Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Heavy · 11 ran 4th 9/2

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Kick Up A Storm (IRE)J: Freddie Gingell Sky Sports Racing Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 26f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 7/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Centara (IRE)J: Jay Tidball Persimmon Homes Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 9/4F

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot It's A Breeze (IRE)J: Miss Gina Andrews Brewers Decorating Centres Albany Derby Female Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 5/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Lallygag (GER)J: Freddie Keighley Wollens Full Spectrum Law Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 16/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Calvino (IRE)J: Freddie Gingell Wollens Full Spectrum Law Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 5/2

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Jpr Two (IRE)J: Freddie Gingell St. Austell Brewery Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 3rd 14/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Rubaud (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Panoramic Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 4th 15/2

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Havanotherguinness (GB)J: Lorcan Williams Sky Sports Racing Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 5/2

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Quebecois (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Dartmoor Magazine Intermediate Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 21f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 5/4J

15 Oct 26 Fontwell Inca De Lafayette (FR)J: Jay Tidball BETTING.BET New Betting Sites Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 2nd 7/2

14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Tutti Quanti (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Adept GRP Cabinets Novices' Steeple Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Soft · 4 ran 2nd 8/11F

14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Pourquoi Pas Papa (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies JCP Solicitors Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Soft · 5 ran 2nd 2/1F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 14 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 4 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 31 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul Nicholls's strike rate?: Paul Nicholls has won 553 of 2,547 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 21.7% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Nicholls do best at?: Taunton by strike rate: 61 wins from 197 runners (31%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Nicholls?: Harry Cobden, with 1,370 runners since 2022 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 325 (23.7%).
Is Paul Nicholls in form?: In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 20%. That is in line with the baseline of 21.7% since 2022.
What is Paul Nicholls's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 2,541 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.