What is Harry Derham's strike rate?

Harry Derham has won 183 of 863 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 21.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Harry Derham do best at?

Huntingdon by strike rate: 13 wins from 33 runners (39.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Harry Derham?

Paul O'Brien, with 561 runners since 2022 — 65% of the total. That pairing has won 128 (22.8%).

Is Harry Derham in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Harry Derham's Fair A/E?

1.09, from 863 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Harry Derham

863 runners in the last 5 seasons · 156 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 8.3% of 315 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.

Last runner 3 days ago 96% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2022→)

from 1 Jan 2022

183–863

Wins / Runs

21.2%

Strike rate

n=863

362 (42%)

Placed

1.09

Fair A/E

n=863 · 0.95 incl. margin

−109.47

£1 level stake

n=863 at SP · −12.7%

£2.41m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

17.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 170 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 21% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.09). New recruits from other yards win at 32% first time out (97 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 863 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 25.3% 43.1% when favourite Paul O'Brien: 22.8% from 561 New recruits: 32% Sends off the favourite in 25% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Huntingdon (39.4%, n=33), clear of the yard's 21.2% baseline. It is weakest at Taunton (8.3% over 36 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 32% (n=97, Fair A/E 1.41), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 16% (n=50, Fair A/E 1.27). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 25.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.28 and +17.79 to a £1 stake over 241 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Paul O'Brien rides 65% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (22.8%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Flat races — 8.6% over 35 runners, 12.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 0.68 across 162 runners (12.3% strike, −49.79 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 8 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Channor Real Estate Group Novice Hurdle at Punchestown (Apr 2026, £73,625). The stable star of the record: Brentford Hope (GB) — 6 wins from 21 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 21.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

25.3%+4.1

n=241 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +17.79

New recruits · first run for the yard

32%+10.8

n=97 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +44.45

Debutants · first career start

27.1%+5.9

n=59 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +23.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

30%+8.8

n=50 · A/E 1.60 · £1 +13.35

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

21.7%+0.5

n=23 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +1.17

When favourite

43.1%

n=218 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −10.50

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

16.9%−4.3

n=130 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −45.83

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

16%−5.2

n=50 · A/E 1.27 · £1 +1.24

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 21.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Huntingdon 39.4% vs 21.2% · n=33

With new recruits 32% vs 21.2% · n=97

At Taunton 8.3% vs 21.2% · n=36

Over 2m5f – 3m 12.3% vs 21.2% · n=162

In Flat races 8.6% vs 21.2% · n=35

With Harry Reed 10% vs 21.2% · n=30

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 609 134 22% −49.49

Chase 173 35 20.2% −24.04

NH Flat 46 11 23.9% −11.79

Flat 35 3 8.6% −24.15

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 284 74 26.1% +6.79

Good to Soft 278 52 18.7% −47.01

Soft 220 44 20% −29.27

Heavy 52 10 19.2% −21.09

Standard (AW) 19 1 5.3% −15.75

Good to Firm 10 2 20% −3.14

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newbury 71 9 12.7% −14.48

Chepstow 44 9 20.5% −13.14

Wincanton 43 10 23.3% +2.00

Doncaster 43 9 20.9% −8.93

Kempton 41 11 26.8% −1.26

Taunton 36 3 8.3% −18.17

Huntingdon 33 13 39.4% +21.60

Uttoxeter 29 5 17.2% −3.61

Market Rasen 29 7 24.1% −3.12

Ascot 27 6 22.2% +1.70

Musselburgh 27 7 25.9% +6.20

Warwick 26 8 30.8% +11.68

Haydock 24 8 33.3% +5.17

Cheltenham 24 2 8.3% −15.17

Plumpton 24 6 25% −6.46

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 376 96 25.5% −32.18

Class 3 183 36 19.7% −36.88

Class 5 131 25 19.1% −21.93

Class 2 95 17 17.9% +2.78

Class 1 72 9 12.5% −15.26

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 240 97 40.4% 1.08 −22.80

2nd–3rd fav 301 62 20.6% 1.10 −34.67

4th–6th fav 212 19 9% 1.09 −30.00

7th+ in betting 110 5 4.5% 1.33 −22.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

91.8% completed · 782 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 173 85% 8 3 15 0 0

Hurdle 609 93.8% 5 5 26 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Il Va De Soi (FR)then Donald McCain 22 4 8 20 May 26

Brentford Hope (GB)from Richard Hughes 21 6 11 28 Feb 26

Shared (GB)from Harry & Roger Charlton 17 4 6 11 Oct 25

One Horse Town (IRE)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 15 5 10 1 Oct 26

Nordic Tiger (FR) 15 3 6 26 Dec 25

Dargiannini (IRE)from Paul Nicholls 14 4 5 25 Apr 26

Monviel (IRE)from Philip Hobbs 14 1 4 3 May 25

Fourofakind (IRE)from J P Murtagh · then Lizzie Quinlan 14 2 7 30 Jun 24

Teddy Blue (GER)from Gary & Josh Moore 13 4 6 25 Apr 26

Pure Carbon (GB) 13 3 7 19 Apr 26

Givemefive (IRE)from J P Murtagh 13 5 8 10 May 25

Hard Frost (FR)from Paul Nicholls 13 1 6 9 May 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 156 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 40 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Oliver Sherwood (6) and Paul Nicholls (6); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Lizzie Quinlan (2) and Sarah-Jayne Davies (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 10

Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

17192522253325206212122

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderPaul O'Brien

65% of all rides
22.8% SR · A/E 1.11

RiderRWSR£1

Paul O'Brien 561 128 22.8% −9.38

Alice Stevens 53 13 24.5% +3.53

Harry Reed 30 3 10% −15.42

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2022→

183

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.41m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 71 wins

Le Frimeur (FR) — Channor Real Estate Group Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2026 · Grade 1

£73,625

Washington (GB) — Bar One Racing '100% Football Acca Boost On Self Service Betting Terminals' Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Fairyhouse · Dec 2024 · Listed

£59,000

Teddy Blue (GER) — Grundon Waste Management Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Ascot · Nov 2025 · Class 1

£56,950

Notable horses

Brentford Hope (GB) Ascending Lark (GB) One Horse Town (IRE) Givemefive (IRE) Jasmine Bliss (GB) Il Va De Soi (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Diamond Boy (FR) 17.5% · 7–40

Progeny have won 12% of 2,270 runs since 2008 (284 horses).

Almanzor (FR) 24.2% · 8–33

Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,089 runs since 2008 (282 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.8% from 145. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13% from 300.

Westerner (GB) 25.9% · 7–27

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,823 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Blue Bresil (FR) 24% · 6–25

Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,489 runs since 2008 (454 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 12% · 3–25

Progeny have won 13.2% of 6,929 runs since 2008 (688 horses).

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 29.2% · 7–24

Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,811 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 863 · newest first

The latest 50 of 863 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 December 2022 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Stratford Ignore The Door (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 4 · 22.5f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 9/2

13 Oct 26 Hereford Siorai (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien tigerbet.co.uk Download Our App Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran PU 5/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Washington (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 7th 18/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Gallivanted (FR)J: Paul O'Brien Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 7th 3/1F

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Dundeelin (IRE)J: Calum Hogan Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Juvenile Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 80/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Pass The Buck (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Juvenile Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 11/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Filibustering (GB)J: Paul O'Brien DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle Race (A Limited Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 8th 14/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Poets Pearl (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 200/1

07 Oct 26 Worcester King Rolo (GB)J: Paul O'Brien FBC Manby Bowdler Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 12th 10/1

07 Oct 26 Worcester Song Of The Stars (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Copybet Supporting Uk Horse Racing Fillies' Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 11/10F

03 Oct 26 Fontwell Our Wee HorseJ: Paul O'Brien Attheraces.com/marketmovers Juvenile Hurdle (gbb Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 4/1

01 Oct 26 Salisbury Viyanni (IRE)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin Madar Corporation 'season Finale' Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 25/1

01 Oct 26 Salisbury One Horse Town (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne Madar Corporation 'season Finale' Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 9/2

29 Sep 26 Sedgefield Jerseygeordie (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 100/30

26 Sep 26 Market Rasen Pass The Buck (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Market Rasen Racecourse Caravan Site Juvenile Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 100/30

26 Sep 26 Market Rasen Poets Pearl (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Market Rasen Racecourse Conference & Events Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 9/2

22 Sep 26 Fontwell Ollierob (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Free Tips On attheraces.com Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 5/2

20 Sep 26 Plumpton Siorai (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien Dominic Hill Accountants & Thorne Civil Engineers Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 2nd 11/10F

19 Sep 26 Newmarket Sudbury Hill (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire (Class 4 Handicap) (Special Rider Conditions)Class 4 · 9f · Good · 14 ran 14th 9/1

07 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Jerseygeordie (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Sky Sports Racing Juvenile Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Harry Derham's strike rate?: Harry Derham has won 183 of 863 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 21.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Harry Derham do best at?: Huntingdon by strike rate: 13 wins from 33 runners (39.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Harry Derham?: Paul O'Brien, with 561 runners since 2022 — 65% of the total. That pairing has won 128 (22.8%).
Is Harry Derham in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Harry Derham's Fair A/E?: 1.09, from 863 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.