Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 22.2%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 19% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
21.1%+2.1
n=19 · A/E 2.07 · £1 +23.12
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
33.3%+14.3
n=15 · A/E 1.47 · £1 −1.13
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
26.3%+7.3
n=19 · A/E 1.93 · £1 +19.94
When favourite
35.3%
n=17 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −1.44
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
22.2%+3.2
n=63 · A/E 1.33 · £1 +54.14
Big fields · 14+ runners
20%+1.0
n=15 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +32.44
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−19.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 19% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m8.8% vs 19% · n=34
With Nigel Twiston-Davies10% vs 19% · n=40
On Good going25.7% vs 19% · n=35
When claiming22.2% vs 19% · n=63
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle45920%+5.39
Chase13323.1%−1.25
NH Flat1119.1%+23.00
Flat10220%+14.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good35925.7%+11.39
Good to Soft2328.7%−3.50
Soft12325%+27.75
Heavy5120%+10.00
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Haydock6116.7%+15.00
Aintree6233.3%+4.00
Warwick6116.7%+1.00
Newbury5120%−4.00
Worcester5240%−0.06
Doncaster4125%−0.75
Kempton4125%+30.00
Ascot300%−3.00
Sandown300%−3.00
Ludlow3133.3%+1.33
Wincanton300%−3.00
Wetherby200%−2.00
Hereford200%−2.00
Chepstow2150%+10.00
Huntingdon200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 424520.8%+8.45
Class 315426.7%−6.81
Class 515213.3%+40.00
Class 214321.4%+7.50
Class 1700%−7.00
Class 64125%−0.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite17635.3%1.04−1.44
2nd–3rd fav18316.7%0.85−3.42
4th–6th fav2528%1.12−2.50
7th+ in betting18316.7%5.90+49.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m3438.8%+22.44
2m1f – 2m4f21628.6%+7.87
2m5f – 3m14535.7%+17.83
1m2f – 1m4f5120%−1.50
Over 3m300%−3.00
6f – 7f100%−1.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221000%−10.00
202311327.3%+32.50
202415213.3%+12.00
202524520.8%+6.19
202619526.3%+0.95
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps441022.7%+30.70
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners22522.7%−3.55
11-13 runners1815.6%−10.50
8-10 runners17423.5%+26.00
14-16 runners10110%−8.56
2-4 runners6116.7%−2.75
17+ runners5240%+41.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 22 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 2
Only 2 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00913·17·751740310
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.3% of 776 runs since 2021 (112 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 156. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5.5% from 146.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 119 · newest first
The latest 50 of 119 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 9 August 2018 to 7 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026
KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 14 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 7 Nov 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
What is Mr Jamie Neild's strike rate?
Mr Jamie Neild has won 15 of 79 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 19% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr Jamie Neild in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr Jamie Neild's Fair A/E?
1.20, from 78 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr Jamie Neild·SR 19%·A/E 1.20
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