What is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's strike rate?

Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies has won 83 of 520 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 16% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies do best at?

Newton Abbot by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 runners (20.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies?

Sam Twiston-Davies, with 263 runners since 2022 — 51% of the total. That pairing has won 50 (19%).

Is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies in form?

In the last 14 days: 27 runners, 8 winners, a strike rate of 29.6%. That is above the baseline of 16% since 2022.

What is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 517 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies

520 runners in the last 5 seasons · 114 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 6.5% of 464 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.

In form — 8 winners last 14 days Last runner 3 days ago 99% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)

from 1 Jan 2022

83–520

Wins / Runs

16%

Strike rate

n=520

180 (35%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=517 · 0.81 incl. margin

−181.40

£1 level stake

n=519 at SP · −35.0%

£1.32m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

14.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 100 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.93). New recruits from other yards win at 24% first time out (76 runs). The yard is in form now — 8 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 520 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Sep–Nov Fresh horses: 23.2% 39.8% when favourite Sam Twiston-Davies: 19% from 263 New recruits: 23.7% Sends off the favourite in 20% of races

The read

It is weakest at Cheltenham (3.3% over 30 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 23.7% (n=76, Fair A/E 1.24), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 3.3% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.33). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 23.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.22 and +5.27 to a £1 stake over 138 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the yard is firing: 8 winners from 27 runners in the last 14 days (29.6%, 13.6pts above the 16% baseline). Sam Twiston-Davies rides 51% of the entries and edges the yard's average (19% vs 16%, A/E 0.96). The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (26.8%, n=82). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 3.9% over 51 runners, 12.1pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (Jan 2026, £56,950). The stable star of the record: Intosomethinggood (GB) — 5 wins from 11 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Sep–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 16% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

23.2%+7.2

n=138 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +5.27

New recruits · first run for the yard

23.7%+7.7

n=76 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +0.31

Debutants · first career start

18.4%+2.4

n=38 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −5.52

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.1%−6.9

n=22 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −8.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−16.0

n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

When favourite

39.8%

n=103 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −16.64

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

14.5%−1.5

n=193 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −45.89

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

3.3%−12.7

n=30 · A/E 0.33 · £1 −28.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 28.2% vs 16% · n=71

Off a break of 180+ days 26.8% vs 16% · n=82

In Class 1 3.9% vs 16% · n=51

With James Turner 4.2% vs 16% · n=48

At Cheltenham 3.3% vs 16% · n=30

In Group / Graded races 3.3% vs 16% · n=30

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 312 55 17.6% −124.30

Chase 151 22 14.6% −34.34

NH Flat 50 6 12% −15.76

Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 249 45 18.1% −79.25

Good to Soft 133 16 12% −66.68

Soft 83 14 16.9% −15.65

Good to Firm 30 4 13.3% −5.30

Heavy 18 4 22.2% −7.52

Standard (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Worcester 39 8 20.5% −2.86

Ludlow 37 7 18.9% −2.11

Newton Abbot 34 7 20.6% −10.26

Chepstow 32 6 18.8% −13.72

Stratford 31 5 16.1% −4.42

Cheltenham 30 1 3.3% −23.00

Warwick 27 1 3.7% −22.50

Market Rasen 20 6 30% −9.09

Aintree 20 3 15% −3.00

Ascot 20 1 5% −14.50

Uttoxeter 18 5 27.8% −3.53

Doncaster 16 3 18.8% −0.75

Bangor-on-Dee 15 5 33.3% −4.37

Hereford 15 1 6.7% −13.80

Haydock 14 1 7.1% +5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 211 39 18.5% −77.58

Class 5 100 16 16% −28.12

Class 3 91 17 18.7% −28.70

Class 2 63 9 14.3% −0.50

Class 1 51 2 3.9% −42.50

Class 6 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 115 42 36.5% 0.97 −24.14

2nd–3rd fav 155 28 18.1% 0.97 −23.76

4th–6th fav 148 10 6.8% 0.84 −66.50

7th+ in betting 101 2 2% 0.59 −67.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86% completed · 463 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 151 77.5% 7 4 22 1 0

Hurdle 312 90.1% 4 1 24 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Norman Fletcher (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 12 0 4 17 Oct 26

Miss Denver (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 11 0 5 13 Oct 26

Broadway Honey (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 11 3 4 6 Oct 26

Intosomethinggood (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 11 5 7 18 Sep 26

Chief Sunday (FR)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 0 0 15 Oct 26

Josh The Boss (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 2 4 14 Oct 26

Bagheera Ginge (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 3 5 15 Sep 26

The Egyptian Ginge (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 9 3 5 17 Oct 26

Moveit Like Minnie (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 9 1 5 2 Oct 26

Ballintubber Boy (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 9 0 0 15 Aug 26

Tax For Max (GER)from W P Mullins 9 0 2 22 Apr 26

Harbour Light (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 8 3 4 11 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 114 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 49 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nigel Twiston-Davies (42) and Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell (2); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard, most often for Dan Skelton (2); 57 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

8 from 27 29.6% · +13.6pts vs baseline

Last 14 days29.6%

5-season base16%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

71715610135629271713

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSam Twiston-Davies

51% of all rides
19% SR · A/E 0.96

RiderRWSR£1

Sam Twiston-Davies 263 50 19% −83.68

Mr Toby McCain-Mitchell 72 13 18.1% +8.97

James Turner 48 2 4.2% −36.00

Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell 46 3 6.5% −23.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.32m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 42 wins

Matata (IRE) — Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Jan 2026 · Class 1

£56,950

Potters Charm (IRE) — Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Hurdle (GBB Race) Windsor · Jan 2026 · Class 2

£52,030

Potters Charm (IRE) — Star Sports National Spirit Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Fontwell · Feb 2026 · Grade 2

£45,560

Notable horses

Intosomethinggood (GB) Broadway Honey (IRE) Bagheera Ginge (GB) The Egyptian Ginge (IRE) Spectacularsunrise (GB) Harbour Light (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Vadamos (FR) 16.7% · 5–30

Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,082 runs since 2008 (217 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.2% from 155.

Pether's Moon (IRE) 18.5% · 5–27

Progeny have won 13.2% of 901 runs since 2008 (106 horses).

Mount Nelson (GB) 16% · 4–25

Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,257 runs since 2008 (538 horses).

Jack Hobbs (GB) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 10.3% of 1,063 runs since 2008 (201 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 17.6% from 119.

Califet (FR) 18.8% · 3–16

Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,787 runs since 2008 (399 horses).

Dragon Dancer (GB) 31.3% · 5–16

Progeny have won 8.8% of 566 runs since 2008 (80 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 520 · newest first

The latest 50 of 520 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 May 2025 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Last Of My Kind (GB)J: Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell Pertemps Network "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 6th 13/8F

17 Oct 26 Market Rasen The Egyptian Ginge (IRE)J: Mr Jamie Neild Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 23f · Good · 5 ran 1st 1/1F

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Norman Fletcher (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies 1st Office Print And It Solutions Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 4/6F

17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Ivor Bear (IRE)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell Pertemps Network Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 8/11F

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Safe Destination (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Insurance Connections Best Bet Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 100/30

15 Oct 26 Fontwell Chief Sunday (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies tigerbet.co.uk Extra Place Races Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 3/1F

15 Oct 26 Fontwell Ferocimo (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies BETTING.BET Play Champion Tipster Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 1st 11/8F

14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Ballycamus (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Adept GRP Cabinets Native River Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Soft · 6 ran 1st 6/1

14 Oct 26 Wetherby Josh The Boss (GB)J: Mr Jamie Neild Bobby Renton Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 2nd 6/4F

14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Guard Your Dreams (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies RWK Goodman Veterans' Handicap Steeple Chase (Leg 6 Of The Stayers' Veterans' Chase Series)Class 2 · 24f · Soft · 8 ran PU 100/30F

13 Oct 26 Southwell Thelasthighking (IRE)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell Case Ih Drive Performance Drive Puma Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 9/4J

13 Oct 26 Hereford Miss Denver (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Betting.Bet Free Racing Tips Mares' 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 2nd 1/2F

12 Oct 26 Worcester Potters Charm (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 23f · Good To Soft · 3 ran 1st 1/5F

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Stream Of Stars (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Dragonbet Born In Wales Seniors' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 4/1

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Leader Crik (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Dragonbet Cefnogi Rasio Ceffylau Cymreig Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 7/2

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Harbour Light (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 2/1F

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Iconic Elsa (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Lsl Racing Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 100/30

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Amatchmadeinheaven (GB)J: Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran PU 13/2

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Masked Man (FR)J: J J Slevin Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran F 100/30F

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Glynn Brae (IRE)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 9th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's strike rate?: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies has won 83 of 520 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 16% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies do best at?: Newton Abbot by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 runners (20.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies?: Sam Twiston-Davies, with 263 runners since 2022 — 51% of the total. That pairing has won 50 (19%).
Is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies in form?: In the last 14 days: 27 runners, 8 winners, a strike rate of 29.6%. That is above the baseline of 16% since 2022.
What is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 517 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.