Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−6.1
n=43 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −43.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
20%+13.9
n=5 · A/E 2.23 · £1 +8.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8%+1.9
n=25 · A/E 2.15 · £1 +9.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
5.2%−0.9
n=97 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −36.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
3.1%−3.0
n=64 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −35.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f0% vs 6.1% · n=44
On first rides for the horse0% vs 6.1% · n=43
On Good going0% vs 6.1% · n=38
In Hurdle races4.4% vs 6.1% · n=68 · A/E 1.43
When claiming5.2% vs 6.1% · n=97 · A/E 1.35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6834.4%−31.50
Chase22313.6%+10.00
NH Flat600%−6.00
Flat300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3800%−38.00
Soft28414.3%+20.00
Good to Soft2414.2%−11.00
Heavy9111.1%−1.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork1600%−16.00
Clonmel1300%−13.00
Limerick1317.7%+8.00
Listowel1200%−12.00
Killarney10220%+4.00
Tramore700%−7.00
Galway (IRE)400%−4.00
Naas4125%+3.50
Punchestown400%−4.00
Wexford400%−4.00
Thurles3133.3%+10.00
Tipperary3133.3%+10.00
Roscommon200%−2.00
Kilbeggan200%−2.00
Ballinrobe100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav8225%2.14+5.50
4th–6th fav18211.1%1.44+3.00
7th+ in betting7222.8%1.57−38.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4400%−44.00
1m5f – 2m2926.9%−8.50
2m5f – 3m23417.4%+25.00
Over 3m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022200%−2.00
2023400%−4.00
20242229.1%−3.00
202527414.8%+22.50
20264400%−44.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps45613.3%+23.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4112.4%−33.50
11-13 runners27414.8%+13.00
17+ runners2314.3%−2.00
8-10 runners400%−4.00
2-4 runners300%−3.00
5-7 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 43 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0333307000018014
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10% of 3,471 runs since 2008 (414 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.4% from 293. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.4% from 352.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 1,627 runs since 2008 (203 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.5% from 164.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 99 · newest first
The latest 50 of 99 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 5 May 2022 to 17 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Luke Burke Ott's strike rate?
Luke Burke Ott has won 6 of 99 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Luke Burke Ott in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Luke Burke Ott's Fair A/E?
1.57, from 99 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Luke Burke Ott·SR 6.1%·A/E 1.57
KTB
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