Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.71). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 8% off breaks of two months or more (40 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 196 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 7.5%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 7.5% (n=40, Fair A/E 2.31). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (7.1%, n=42) and in Flat races (6.7%, n=45). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 0% over 63 runners, 3.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.31 across 75 runners (1.3% strike, −63.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Our Katie (IRE) — 5 wins from 14 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.5%+4.4
n=40 · A/E 2.31 · £1 −11.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
9.5%+6.4
n=21 · A/E 3.32 · £1 +2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.1
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.1
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.1
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.2%−0.9
n=93 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −74.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 31-60-day break7.1% vs 3.1% · n=42
In Flat races6.7% vs 3.1% · n=45
Off a 15-30-day break0% vs 3.1% · n=63
Off a 8-14-day break0% vs 3.1% · n=33
In Hurdle races1.3% vs 3.1% · n=75 · A/E 0.31
On Good going1.5% vs 3.1% · n=67 · A/E 0.31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle7511.3%−63.00
Chase6223.2%−43.50
Flat4536.7%−7.00
NH Flat1400%−14.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good6711.5%−59.50
Soft6023.3%−42.00
Good to Soft3013.3%−19.00
Heavy2300%−23.00
Standard (AW)16212.5%+16.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork2500%−25.00
Tramore2114.8%−13.50
Tipperary2114.8%−10.00
Wexford1915.3%−7.00
Limerick1900%−19.00
Dundalk (AW)16212.5%+16.00
Thurles1500%−15.00
Killarney900%−9.00
Clonmel800%−8.00
Leopardstown600%−6.00
Listowel600%−6.00
Galway500%−5.00
Punchestown500%−5.00
Gowran Park400%−4.00
Naas400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1300%−3.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Class 5100%−1.00
Class 611100%+5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav1915.3%0.42−13.00
4th–6th fav3837.9%1.21−7.50
7th+ in betting13721.5%0.62−105.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m5923.4%−36.50
2m1f – 2m4f5811.7%−46.00
2m5f – 3m3812.6%−27.00
1m2f – 1m4f2727.4%−4.00
Over 3m600%−6.00
1m – 1m1f500%−5.00
6f – 7f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224412.3%−32.00
20234424.5%−21.00
20244224.8%−19.50
20253812.6%−27.00
20262800%−28.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps11854.2%−60.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners8122.5%−49.00
11-13 runners5200%−52.00
8-10 runners27311.1%+3.50
17+ runners2600%−26.00
5-7 runners900%−9.00
2-4 runners11100%+5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 35 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 35 horses listed, 22 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Barry Connell (5) and Paul O'Flynn (3); 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
8 have since run for another yard; 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0070600717090
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
20
Archived wins
£236k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 3 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,091 runs since 2008 (314 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 263.
Finsceal Fior (IRE)9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 7.6% of 564 runs since 2008 (47 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 10.6% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.4% from 140.
Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,090 runs since 2008 (139 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17% from 100. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.1% from 126. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 16.6% from 241. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,913 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 427 · newest first
The latest 50 of 427 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 March 2007 to 16 August 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is G Ahern's strike rate?
G Ahern has won 6 of 196 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is G Ahern's Fair A/E?
0.71, from 196 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
G Ahern·SR 3.1%·A/E 0.71
KTB
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