Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.31).
Deterministic profile computed from 297 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
The read
The record is strongest at Limerick (16.7%, n=36), clear of the yard's 8.8% baseline. It is weakest at Clonmel (1.8% over 57 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 8.2% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.21 and +12.38 to a £1 stake over 159 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (13.3%, n=98). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 3.7% over 54 runners, 5.1pts below the baseline. 16 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Guinness Galway Hurdle at Galway (Aug 2012, £156,600). The stable star of the record: Rebel Fitz (FR) — 18 wins from 30 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6%−2.8
n=50 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −2.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.1%+2.3
n=9 · A/E 1.59 · £1 −5.25
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.8
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
12.5%+3.7
n=16 · A/E 2.05 · £1 +28.75
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
22.7%+13.9
n=22 · A/E 2.23 · £1 +8.75
When favourite
20.8%
n=24 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −9.42
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.2%−0.6
n=159 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +12.38
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Limerick16.7% vs 8.8% · n=36
At Clonmel1.8% vs 8.8% · n=57
With horses switching code13.5% vs 8.8% · n=89
Off a 15-30-day break13.3% vs 8.8% · n=98
With Darragh O'Keeffe14.3% vs 8.8% · n=42
Off a 31-60-day break3.7% vs 8.8% · n=54
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle193157.8%+10.08
Chase821012.2%−11.17
NH Flat1300%−13.00
Flat9111.1%+14.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft11298%−8.92
Heavy7456.8%+2.00
Good67811.9%+23.75
Good to Soft4449.1%−16.92
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Clonmel5711.8%−54.62
Cork4724.3%−27.67
Limerick36616.7%+25.70
Thurles23313%+3.00
Wexford21523.8%+21.50
Listowel2114.8%+2.00
Tipperary1300%−13.00
Ballinrobe1200%−12.00
Killarney1000%−10.00
Naas9222.2%+7.00
Punchestown800%−8.00
Tramore8112.5%−2.00
Downpatrick8225%+36.75
Kilbeggan7228.6%−2.75
Gowran Park600%−6.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite27518.5%0.84−12.42
2nd–3rd fav481020.8%1.57+11.33
4th–6th fav5447.4%1.05−2.00
7th+ in betting16874.2%1.88+3.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f134118.2%+17.21
1m5f – 2m109109.2%−28.05
2m5f – 3m47510.6%+17.75
Over 3m300%−3.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
1m – 1m1f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20228655.8%−38.00
20237134.2%−13.42
202454713%+52.00
202555712.7%+9.00
202631412.9%−9.67
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1832212%+67.41
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners107109.3%+30.63
11-13 runners8356%−50.30
17+ runners6046.7%+3.00
8-10 runners37410.8%−4.75
5-7 runners10330%+21.33
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 41 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 41 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from G M Lyons (2); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.
13 have since run for another yard, most often for M Winters (7); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
491091022100015010
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
164
Archived wins
16
Pattern / graded wins
£2.61m
Prize money
2015
Best season · 17 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Rebel Fitz (FR) — Guinness Galway Hurdle (Grade A Handicap) Galway · Aug 2012 · Grade A
£156,600
Missunited (IRE) — Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (grade A) Galway · Aug 2013 · Grade A
£156,600
Chatham Street Lad (IRE) — Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cheltenham · Dec 2020 · Grade 3
Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,813 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 10% of 3,472 runs since 2008 (414 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.4% from 293. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.3% from 353.
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,836 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Milan (GB)0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,844 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Flemensfirth (USA)6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,274 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,570 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,570 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 February 2005 to 1 June 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Michael Winters's strike rate?
Michael Winters has won 26 of 297 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Winters do best at?
Limerick by strike rate: 6 wins from 36 runners (16.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Michael Winters's Fair A/E?
1.31, from 297 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Michael Winters·SR 8.8%·A/E 1.31
KTB
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